November 2024

[Wxoutlooksblog]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro is very likely the closest to reality for next week. I don’t see it being much than a run of the mill FROPA. The Canadian is totally off its rocker as usual and the GFS has a wildly different solution on every run

Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be.

WX/PT

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro does give most of the area a nice half inch to inch soaking Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with some spots getting more than that. Obviously we would be thrilled with that at this point. 

Major trof buckling into the Ohio Valley and this is about a week away so details to be worked out but model support there for 1"+ rainfall if things evolve favorably.  First test of the Fall / Winter season if we are going to be playing Kick the Can again this season on colder and storminess.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be.

WX/PT

My thoughts exactly with the GOM influx cut off. Would not be surprised if we end up with even less than what the Euro is showing right now. I know that’s not what people want to hear but I guess any little bit of rain from a FROPA would be a change at this point given where we have been since August

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

My thoughts exactly with the GOM influx cut off. Would not be surprised if we end up with even less than what the Euro is showing right now. I know that’s not what people want to hear but I guess any little bit of rain from a FROPA would be a change at this point given where we have been since August

Up until today the models were mostly under .5" so yeah we should be skeptical of more until we see some consistency 

[SACRUS]

Up to 60 looks to watm up the next three days to the mid/upper 60s.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Wettest look in a few weeks, last time it didnt materialize. 

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My thoughts exactly with the GOM influx cut off. Would not be surprised if we end up with even less than what the Euro is showing right now. I know that’s not what people want to hear but I guess any little bit of rain from a FROPA would be a change at this point given where we have been since August

Yeah, the Gulf low looks to get suppressed like we have been seeing since late August. So our best bet is for a triple point low to form near DC as the GL low wraps up. If the secondary or triple point low gets going too late, then most of the moisture will stay to N and W.

[donsutherland1]

A mild and dry weekend is likely with readings topping out in the lower 60s across much of the region. The dry weather will likely continue through the middle of next week. Rain is possible late next week. The potential exists for 0.50" or more rain. The rain will likely be followed by a period of below normal temperatures.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +3.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.139 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in EWR
NYC: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading at NYC
LGA: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in LGA
JFK: 77 (1993)


Lows: 

EWR: 18 (1933)
NYC: 20 (1967)
LGA: 22 (1967)
JFK: 20 (1967)

Historical:

 

1964 - With the help of a fresh three inch cover of snow, the temperature at Ely, NV, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to establish an all-time record low for the month of November. That record of -15 degrees was later equalled on the 19th of November in 1985. (The Weather Channel)

1974 - A storm produced 15 inches of snow at the Buffalo, NY, airport, and 30 inches on the south shore of Lake Erie. (David Ludlum)

1986 - An early season cold wave set more than 200 records from the northwestern U.S. to the east coast over a seven day period. For some places it proved to be the coldest weather of the winter season. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - The first major snowstorm of the season hit the Southern and Central Rockies, producing 12 inches at the Brian Head ski resort in Utah overnight. Strong and gusty winds associated with the storm reached 52 mph at Ruidoso NM. In the eastern U.S., the temperature at Washington D.C. soared to 68 degrees, just three days after being buried under more than a foot of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34 hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16.

1988 - A massive storm produced snow and gusty winds in the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Show Low AZ, and Donner Summit, located in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, was buried under 23 inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked parts of California, with 3.19 inches reported at Blue Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed east of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as New England, and readings in the 80s were reported across the southeast quarter of the nation. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second time in the month Dallas/Fort Worth TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees. The high of 91 degrees at Waco TX was their warmest of record for so late in the season. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Wyoming overnight, with a foot of snow reported at Cody, and ten inches at Yellowstone Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York.

[bluewave]

At least the 0z models didn’t loose the idea of a weak secondary or triple point low to help boost the rainfall potential over .5.

 

[Allsnow]

Looks like the lake event and cold shot is a fail for thanksgiving week. The ULL is getting cut off while the block is not retrograding west. The pac just does not want to slow down. Good reminder for the coming winter 

[Allsnow]

The block is sinking south now to link up with the pna ridge as it moves east. 

[Allsnow]

Time to unbuckle 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

57/ 35 sunny.   Warm next few days , peaking on Sunday and Monday with mid - upper 60s and perhaps some of the warmer spots near or low 70s.   Next threat of some real rain >0.50 Thursday PM and Friday.  Cooler period up through Thanksgiving but could return to dry.  

 

[qg_omega]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Time to unbuckle 

 

 

We unbuckle

[MANDA]

15 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in EWR
NYC: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading at NYC
LGA: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in LGA
JFK: 77 (1993)


Lows: 

EWR: 18 (1933)
NYC: 20 (1967)
LGA: 22 (1967)
JFK: 20 (1967)

Historical:

 

1964 - With the help of a fresh three inch cover of snow, the temperature at Ely, NV, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to establish an all-time record low for the month of November. That record of -15 degrees was later equalled on the 19th of November in 1985. (The Weather Channel)

1974 - A storm produced 15 inches of snow at the Buffalo, NY, airport, and 30 inches on the south shore of Lake Erie. (David Ludlum)

1986 - An early season cold wave set more than 200 records from the northwestern U.S. to the east coast over a seven day period. For some places it proved to be the coldest weather of the winter season. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - The first major snowstorm of the season hit the Southern and Central Rockies, producing 12 inches at the Brian Head ski resort in Utah overnight. Strong and gusty winds associated with the storm reached 52 mph at Ruidoso NM. In the eastern U.S., the temperature at Washington D.C. soared to 68 degrees, just three days after being buried under more than a foot of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34 hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16.

1988 - A massive storm produced snow and gusty winds in the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Show Low AZ, and Donner Summit, located in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, was buried under 23 inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked parts of California, with 3.19 inches reported at Blue Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed east of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as New England, and readings in the 80s were reported across the southeast quarter of the nation. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second time in the month Dallas/Fort Worth TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees. The high of 91 degrees at Waco TX was their warmest of record for so late in the season. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Wyoming overnight, with a foot of snow reported at Cody, and ten inches at Yellowstone Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York.

That 1989 warm surge was followed by a bitter cold December.  Rest of the winter was a relative dud.  Remember that December cold well.

[Stormlover74]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Time to unbuckle 

 

 

They fall for it everytime

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, MANDA said:

That 1989 warm surge was followed by a bitter cold December.  Rest of the winter was a relative dud.  Remember that December cold well.

With almost no snow that December after heartbreaking misses

[WX-PA]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

With almost no snow that December after heartbreaking misses

We had a promising clipper come down in the middle of the month. Forecast was for snow..I think 2-4 inches but easterly winds were the killer. A brief period of wet snow over to rain.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

We had a promising clipper come down in the middle of the month. Forecast was for snow..I think 2-4 inches but easterly winds were the killer. A brief period of wet snow over to rain.

Even more. Think we were under a warning. Temp shot up from 28 to 40

[2112wxgrl]

I was a hs freshmen for that one. Other towns closed school, but not Pompton Lakes. Us students were so pissed that the seniors held a “hell no, we won’t go” protest in the halls and a freshman(not me, lol) pulled a fire alarm! That’s how desperate times were then for a snow day.

[Allsnow]

46 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They fall for it everytime

Yup. 

[forkyfork]

drier trend on all models for next week now

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

drier trend on all models for next week now

Not the euro AI at 6z

[Stormlover74]

[Stormlover74]

Be lucky to get a quarter inch now

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, 2112wxgrl said:

I was a hs freshmen for that one. Other towns closed school, but not Pompton Lakes. Us students were so pissed that the seniors held a “hell no, we won’t go” protest in the halls and a freshman(not me, lol) pulled a fire alarm! That’s how desperate times were then for a snow day.

And that was following the feb 89 miss. At least we had the Thanksgiving storm

[forkyfork]

every time

 

[forkyfork]

we just cannot get a closed low to track near or south of us anymore

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the lake event and cold shot is a fail for thanksgiving week. The ULL is getting cut off while the block is not retrograding west. The pac just does not want to slow down. Good reminder for the coming winter 

This is the same old story we have seen in recent years. Models try to develop a -EPO after day 10. Then the closer we get in time there is a trough near Alaska and we get a Southeast Ridge.

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