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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Wow, 26.8 here.  Metuchen getting those Newark temps now

Won’t make it tonight either 

 

Clear for tonight, and with winds probably decoupling inland with 
light to calm winds, good radiational cooling conditions. Mixed low 
levels should however limit radiational cooling for the NYC/NJ metro 
where the growing season continues, so not expecting much frost. 
Have decided to convert the Freeze Watch in southern Nassau County 
to a Warning with just enough coverage of freezing temperatures as 
cold air advection would be sufficient in spite of a mixed boundary 
layer.
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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Won’t make it tonight either 

 

Clear for tonight, and with winds probably decoupling inland with 
light to calm winds, good radiational cooling conditions. Mixed low 
levels should however limit radiational cooling for the NYC/NJ metro 
where the growing season continues, so not expecting much frost. 
Have decided to convert the Freeze Watch in southern Nassau County 
to a Warning with just enough coverage of freezing temperatures as 
cold air advection would be sufficient in spite of a mixed boundary 
layer.

I guess I was just west enough last night.  

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15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Look at where all the arctic air is, locked on the complete opposite side of the pole again, in Eurasia. And we are going into mid-November. Just like last year

this doesn't look to be the case as we draw later into the month but we'll see how modeling does

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Makes sense with the ULL trapped north of the lakes 

 

need that to move out for any precipitation chance 

The tropical system ends up getting suppressed again like all of them since late August and the northern stream doesn’t have much moisture for us this run. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The tropical system ends up getting suppressed again like all of them since late August and the northern stream doesn’t have much much moisture for us this run.

Yup. Best chance for rain on the ensembles is 11/22. After that it might be a while until the ULL moves out north of the lakes 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Best chance for rain on the ensembles is 11/22. After that it might be a while until the ULL moves out north of the lakes 

Just 9 short days away.    Not going to see much snow regardless of temps with all the dryness around

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Wow, predicting normal snow around 30” for NYC. I’ll gladly eat my socks if that happens. 

Agreed. Seems like they favor late December into January for snow/cold. February is a torch according to the outlook 

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