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A strong cold shot will deliver the coldest air mass, by far, this fall into the region. The temperature will fall into the 30s tomorrow morning in Central Park. This would rank as the third latest first sub-40° temperature of the season. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consecutive year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996.

The temperature will remain in the middle and upper 40s for highs tomorrow and Thursday. A warm front will also slip across the region Thursday. Afterward, it will again turn milder to end the week. A mild and dry weekend is likely. The dry weather will likely continue into at least early next week.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +14.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.278 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Hopefully it moves up in time. Average high for my area for today is 48. Lowest high temperature for the next 10 is 49 on Thursday. Above 50 everyday after. Even our “cold fronts” can’t get us a day below average anymore. 

The source region for these "cold" shots is still Pacific origin, since we can't get a sustained ridge in the West to build up then deliver cold from Canada. It's somewhat modified Pacific air. Any attempt at a ridge gets blasted away by the raging Pacific jet developed from the boiling SSTs east of Japan. Rinse (or not since we're all in a drought aided by said pattern) repeat. 

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3rd latest that NYC dropped under 40° right behind 2022.


 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1938 04-11 (1938) 33 11-15 (1938) 37 217
2022 04-19 (2022) 39 11-14 (2022) 37 208
1946 04-28 (1946) 37 11-13 (2024) 37 198
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38 / 20 off a low of 29.  Dry and near normal the next few days before warming this weekend and into the forst half of next week.   Trough moves through between the 22 and next weekend.  Shot at rain and cold into Thanksgiving before moderating.  Overall warmer than normal and dry continuing the next week.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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