Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Recommended Posts

About 0.1" here.  A little worried about flash flooding, lol.  

And with regard to the about to end rainless streaks, below is the NWS-Philly update on the latest counts of consecutive days without measurable precipitation at the major climate locations as of Saturday (last time there was measurable precipitation and the amount are in parentheses); the streaks should end for these stations tonight (or early Monday). By the way, the NJDEP is holding a hearing on Tuesday to discuss potential water use restrictions.

Allentown 16 days (0.01" on October 24) - tied for 44th longest
Atlantic City Airport 38 days (0.02" on October 2) - record longest
Mount Pocono 26 days (0.05" on October 14) - tied for 2nd longest
Philadelphia 42 days (0.11" on September 28) - record longest
Reading 16 days (0.01" on October 24) - tied for 73rd longest
Trenton 42 days (0.23" on September 28) - record longest
Wilmington 42 days (0.04" on September 28) - record longest
Georgetown 43 days (0.13" on September 27) - record longest

One note on this, drought is a much longer term weather phenomena than most of the hazardous weather we talk about, so one rain event (especially one with as little as this), generally isn't enough to make any significant dent in the deficit and drought conditions. Therefore, please continue to heed any burn bans or water conservation efforts your localities may have in place! For the rest of the week, there is a small (emphasis on small) chance for rain on Thursday. Otherwise, it appears we'll have mostly dry conditions.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

0.21 in the bucket 63 / 56 clearing out.   Warmest of the next 7 - 9 days (today with highs near 70).   Overall near normal with the dryness continuing - watching Thursday if any of the rain can trend northwest, otherwise a dry week ahead.  The period to watch remains the 22 - 25 timeframe and beyond.  Trough and late season tropics are being forecast in the period. Othrwise the dry run marches on.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This may turn out to be one of the best rains we see this month. While I was mentioning how retrogressions have resulted in storms in past years, the caveat of how dry this year is pushing back in the long range forecast. Notice how the cooler trough which had rain potential is now getting replaced by the Southeast Ridge just after the 20th. Spots could see their driest fall on record if these recent corrections to the earlier forecast continue.


New ridge with cool temps and rains getting delayed to west with stronger ridge

IMG_1842.thumb.png.7f06595b32b33ef50d027286d2f8233a.png

IMG_1844.thumb.png.e674cb3ebda1a2beabfe1c742558ba3a.png

 

Old runs models underestimating the long range Southeast Ridge again

 

IMG_1843.thumb.png.604f46b0a20ce495a349a862fbe5ea49.png

 

IMG_1846.thumb.png.cc3f9d97fc42ab72e11d45181b0085ce.png

So shocking. Another -NAO hooking up with the WAR/SE ridge that the models underestimate, then get stronger and stronger as we move forward in time. Looks very likely that the uber dry pattern continues right through the tail end of this month and the drought goes on unabated. The measly .20-.30 of rain that fell last night will get vaporized this afternoon. We have smoked the 2001 late summer/fall drought, left it completely in the dust

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  75 (1949)
NYC: 74 (1949)
LGA: 74 (1949)
JFK: 69 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 24 (2017)
NYC: 24 (2017)
LGA: 26 (2017)
JFK: 24 (2017)

 


Historical:

 

1911 - The central U.S. experienced perhaps its most dramatic cold wave of record. During the early morning temperatures across the Central Plains ranged from 68 degrees at Kansas City to 4 above North Platte NE. In Kansas City, the temperature warmed to a record 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies become overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero. Oklahoma City also established a record high of 83 degrees and record low of 17 degrees that same day. In southeastern Kansas, the temperature at Independence plunged from 83 degrees to 33 degrees in just one hour. The arctic cold front produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley, a blizzard in the Ohio Va

 

1911: A powerful cold front, known as the Great Blue Norther of 1911, produced some of the most extreme temperature changes to the Nation's midsection. Ahead of the cold front, a warm and moist environment caused a severe weather outbreak with several strong tornadoes reported in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. An estimated F4 tornado occurred from Janesville to Milton, Wisconsin, and caused extensive damage to several farms and killed nine people. The citizens of Janesville, Wisconsin, reported blizzard conditions with a temperature near zero within an hour of the tornado. 

 

 

1940 - An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused ship wrecks resulting in another 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives, and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Whole towns were isolated by huge snowdrifts. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused shipwrecks resulting in 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN, the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Huge snowdrifts isolated whole towns.

1955 - An early arctic outbreak set many November temperature records across Oregon and Washington. The severe cold damaged shrubs and fruit trees. Readings plunged to near zero in western Washington, and dipped to 19 degrees below zero in the eastern part of the state. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A deepening low pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington D.C. area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Totals in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado ranged up to 10 inches at Summitville. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail in central Oklahoma and north central Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Veteran's Day was an unseasonably warm one across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the southern half of the Atlantic coast. Thirty-four cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 85 degrees. Calico AR and Gilbert AR reported record highs of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for perspective IIRC there was a pre-existing drought going on when I moved back to NJ in early 1980 which I think resolved itself a few months after we arrived, and then a really bad drought right after we moved from Middlesex county to our current location in northern Somerset county in 1987. I think I recall national coverage about the 1988 drought on the weather channel back in the day.  I wonder how the current situation compares.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Evie3 said:

Just for perspective IIRC there was a pre-existing drought going on when I moved back to NJ in early 1980 which I think resolved itself a few months after we arrived, and then a really bad drought right after we moved from Middlesex county to our current location in northern Somerset county in 1987. I think I recall national coverage about the 1988 drought on the weather channel back in the day.  I wonder how the current situation compares.

There were back to back months <1" in late 80 early 81 and a dry spring in 88 but both were followed by wet months so drought wasn't prolonged 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...