psv88 Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM 29 this morning. Second freeze of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Weenie storm ! 3 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weenie storm ! Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM 4 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Lock it up! A foot of virtual snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted Sunday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:57 PM It's the only virtual snow we have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Don’t worry the next GFS run will show sunny and 65 for the same timeframe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Weenie storm ! No thanks. Taking my daughter to Taylor Swift in Toronto that weekend. No need for a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:47 PM 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: No thanks. Taking my daughter to Taylor Swift in Toronto that weekend. No need for a storm Not going to happen so you are good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Normally that’s completely true, but given how this entire fall (really since the end of August) has gone so far, would anyone actually be surprised if that doesn’t work out? I don’t think anyone would be surprised if there was a storm and it found a way to miss us which has been happening since around August 20th. Nobody wants to see a fall drought take hold and persist into next spring or summer. The stakes would be much higher this time around than 01-02 or even some 60s years since we have warmed so much since then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t think anyone would be surprised if there was a storm and it found a way to miss us which has been happening since around August 20th. Nobody wants to see a fall drought take hold and persist into next spring or summer. The stakes would be much higher this time around than 01-02 or even some 60s years since we have warmed so much since then. So the Euro starts running out to 360 hours on Tuesday twice a day. I guess that means twice as many fantasy storms. This should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Sunday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:27 PM 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Weenie storm ! The big ones get sniffed out early 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Sunday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:27 PM 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: 34 sigh Finally a freeze here. Made it down to 29. Warm weather vegetable plants are finished. Of course lettuce is very hardy, so that'll be producing for a little while longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not going to happen so you are good. If you look at the genesis of this system it actually forms in the Caribbean. It has likely had tropical features initially and probably picks up a name along the way. GFS really got creative with this one. FWIW the CFS has popped a few runs with snows in the east however accumulating snow only happens well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM 43 days since having to post this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM Maybe we'll be rain weenies this winter for a random half inch that'll come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted Sunday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:51 PM 11 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 43 days since having to post this What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted Sunday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:54 PM Lots of dry air to overcome. Nothing here, but close to decent returns; we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Sunday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:04 PM Confirmed trace from those echoes south of Allentown yeehaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM 47 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The big ones get sniffed out early 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM 28 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Lots of dry air to overcome. Nothing here, but close to decent returns; we shall see. Hrrr says nothing until tonight after 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Sunday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:27 PM If I get 1/4" I will call it a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Sunday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:31 PM animated.mov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 09:05 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:05 PM Light rain dampening the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:16 PM 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Light rain dampening the ground The rich get richer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Showers and periods of rain are now overspreading the region. Light rain is falling in parts of the New York City area. Wilmington, DE has seen its first measurable rainfall since September 28th. Periods of rain are likely overnight into tomorrow. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall is likely. A few showers will be possible on Thursday as a warm front moves across the region. A strong cold shot is likely during the middle of the week. The temperature will very likely fall below 40° during Wednesday morning (November 13th) or perhaps late Tuesday night in Central Park. This would rank as the third or fourth latest first sub-40° temperature. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consective year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996. It will again turn milder late in the week or during the following weekend. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +4.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.691 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted Sunday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:44 PM 54F here currently, light rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM 3 hours ago, RedSky said: Confirmed trace from those echoes south of Allentown yeehaw Still have not measured. Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted Monday at 12:49 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:49 AM Been drizzling on and off all afternoon and evening and barley keeping the ground damp. Rain tipper still sitting at 0.00" Looks like it's struggling with dry air. I'm just hoping that line in PA doesn't dry up and fizzle by the time it reaches us, but I wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:01 AM 1 hour ago, Picard said: Been drizzling on and off all afternoon and evening and barley keeping the ground damp. Rain tipper still sitting at 0.00" Looks like it's struggling with dry air. I'm just hoping that line in PA doesn't dry up and fizzle by the time it reaches us, but I wouldn't be surprised. Models over the last 24 hours have been getting less impressed, HRRR now has most of us at about 0.2”. Might end up being just a lot of virga with most of us just having the ground wet for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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