November 2024

[Allsnow]

Icon with the drought buster 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Huge early season artic high made that possible 

November 2018 was the end of the great snowfall pattern which began in December 2009 with only a brief interruption during 2011-2012. Even the 2011-2012 season featured the snowiest October on record. Epic run of record breaking benchmark snowstorms. The 2018-2019 DJF period with the big squall and the end of January being the main event was the beginning of the hostile Pacific pattern.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

November 2018 was the end of the great snowfall pattern which began in December 2009 with only a brief interruption during 2011-2012. Even the 2011-2012 season featured the snowiest October on record. Epic run of record breaking benchmark snowstorms. The 2018-2019 DJF period with the big squall and the end of January being the main event was the beginning of the hostile Pacific pattern.

Yup, everyone had high expectations after that 2018 November storm. We really didn’t snow again that winter until the end of February into early March which produced two sloppy storms 

[Allsnow]

Euro now around .50 for Sunday 

[winterwx21]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro now around .50 for Sunday 

Would be great if we can pull that off. Obviously not nearly enough to help much with the drought, but we desperately need to get some moisture into the soil to reduce the fire risk. I'm skeptical that we'll get that much though. A weak system is going to have a tough time overcoming this incredibly dry pattern. Wouldn't be a surprise to see it dry up and only deliver a tenth of an inch, but hopefully that won't be the case. We'll see. 

[forkyfork]

almost 70 degrees behind a cold front in november

[Brian5671]

You know it's been bad when we are getting excited about rain....

[bluewave]

Coastal sections could see 40-50 mph gusts later with the steep low level lapse rates. 
 

 

[Cfa]

70 degrees with a Red Flag Warning and Freeze Watch at the same time, I feel like I’m in the Great Plains.

[Allsnow]

Congrats @psv88

 

 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Congrats @psv88

 

 

Haha we already had our first freeze last week, but thanks!!

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 29 breezy.  Cooler Sat , perhaps the first rains since Sep 28 for many on Sunday  0.25 - 0.30. Warmer monday before cooling next Tue.  Next shot at rain Thursday in what can be another 0.25.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (2020)
NYC: 76 (1975)
LGA: 77 (2020)
JFK: 74 (2020)

Lows: 

EWR: 27 (1976)
NYC: 29 (2019)
LGA: 31 (2019)
JFK: 28 (1976)

 

Historical:

 

1870 - The first storm warning was issued by the U.S. Signal Corps Weather Service. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1870: The U.S. Signal Corps Weather Service issued the first storm warning on this day. Professor Increase A. Lapham believed that warnings of deadly storms on the Great Lakes could be derived from telegraphed weather observations. As a result, a bill was introduced and signed into law to establish a national telegraphic weather service. The Signal Corps began taking observations of November 1st, 1870. On this date, Lapham would issue the first storm warning, a cautionary forecast for the Great Lakes.

 

1879: A tornado struck Crawford County, Arkansas, killing several people.

 

1913: The Great Lakes Storm of November 7-13, 1913, was a blizzard with hurricane-force winds that devastated the Great Lakes Region, sinking as many as 19 ships and stranding 19 others. This storm would be the deadliest and most destructive natural disaster ever to hit the Great Lakes. 

1943 - An early season snowstorm raged across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. The storm produced 22 inches of snow at Fairbult and Marshall MN, 20 inches at Redwood Falls MN, and 10.1 inches at Minneapolis. Drifts fifteen feet high were reported in Cottonwood County MN. The storm produced up to two feet of snow in South Dakota smothering a million Thanksgiving day turkeys. (6th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1953 - Residents of New York City suffered through ten days of smog resulting in 200 deaths. (The Weather Channel)

1966 - The temperature in downtown San Francisco reached a November record of 86 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms over Texas produced locally heavy rains in the Hill Country, with 3.50 inches reported at Lakeway, and 3.72 inches reported at Anderson Mill. Thunderstorms over Louisiana produced hail an inch in diameter at Clay and at Provencial. Blustery northwest winds, ushering cold air into western Kansas and into northwest Texas, gusted to 46 mph at Hill City KS. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Fair weather prevailed across much of the nation for Election Day. Midland TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees, and the record high of 87 degrees at Roswell NM was their fifth in eight days. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northern Louisiana into central Georgia. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes, and there were sixty-four reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm in central Georgia spawned a tornado which killed one person and injured eight others at Pineview. Late afternoon thunderstorms in central Mississippi produced baseball size hail around Jackson, and wind gusts to 70 mph Walnut Grove. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1994: The twelfth and final tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season formed in the southwestern Caribbean. While Hurricane Gordon was only a Category 1, it killed 1,149 individuals, including 1,122 in Haiti.

 

 

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

We did have November 2018 too

2016-2023, those 8 years I amaveraging 32.2" of snow, or about 3" above normal. 3 near normal years, 1 a little below average, 2 stinkers and 2 well above average.  

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

November 2018 was the end of the great snowfall pattern which began in December 2009 with only a brief interruption during 2011-2012. Even the 2011-2012 season featured the snowiest October on record. Epic run of record breaking benchmark snowstorms. The 2018-2019 DJF period with the big squall and the end of January being the main event was the beginning of the hostile Pacific pattern.

Agreed. Between the 08-09 and 17-18 seasons I averaged 53" a season. Between 18-19 and 23-24, which obviously includes the 11.6" from November 2018, my average is 38" 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

November 2018 was the end of the great snowfall pattern which began in December 2009 with only a brief interruption during 2011-2012. Even the 2011-2012 season featured the snowiest October on record. Epic run of record breaking benchmark snowstorms. The 2018-2019 DJF period with the big squall and the end of January being the main event was the beginning of the hostile Pacific pattern.

20-21 was good as well as Jan 22, but yeah, it's been meager overall.   Our last decent month was Jan 2022 which is now almost 3 yrs ago.  

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, FPizz said:

2016-2023, those 8 years I amaveraging 32.2" of snow, or about 3" above normal. 3 near normal years, 1 a little below average, 2 stinkers and 2 well above average.  

Some of the years we had warm winters but a few big storms to pad the numbers. 2016 comes to mind. Overall it’s been pretty warm with limited lasting snowpack like we had 2000-2014

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Some of the years we had warm winters but a few big storms to pad the numbers. 2016 comes to mind. Overall it’s been pretty warm with limited lasting snowpack like we had 2000-2014

Oh yeah, we have def been above normal nearly every month.  I was just showing that we can still have decent winters even with a sea of warmth.  We need to look for those good windows in the warmth and hope that they produce.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed. Between the 08-09 and 17-18 seasons I averaged 53" a season. Between 18-19 and 23-24, which obviously includes the 11.6" from November 2018, my average is 38" 

Yeah, NYC went from 37.9” in the 2010s to 14.2” in  the 2020s. 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.3	1.1	5.3	12.9	11.8	6.0	0.6	37.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	4.7	0.4	1.5	12.2	7.3	0.0	26.1
2011-2012	2.9	0.0	0.0	4.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.4
2010-2011	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	61.9
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	51.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

[MJO812]

NAO possibly going negative. That would be nice.

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, NYC went from 37.9” in the 2010s to 14.2” in  the 2020s. 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.3	1.1	5.3	12.9	11.8	6.0	0.6	37.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	4.7	0.4	1.5	12.2	7.3	0.0	26.1
2011-2012	2.9	0.0	0.0	4.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.4
2010-2011	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	61.9
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	51.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

The Pacific changing back to a less hostile state should be enough to ramp the averages back up, not to the high bonanza period of the 2010s but we should be able to cash in once in a while with offshore coastal lows and cold enough air. The West certainly can, so we should too. The overall pattern is just way too hostile and has to change. But we’re just stuck with this garbage N PAC SST anomaly state blasting us with puke. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific changing back to a less hostile state should be enough to ramp the averages back up, not to the high bonanza period of the 2010s but we should be able to cash in once in a while with offshore coastal lows and cold enough air. The West certainly can, so we should too. The overall pattern is just way too hostile and has to change. But we’re just stuck with this garbage N PAC SST anomaly state blasting us with puke. 

The snowfall volatility since 1993-1994 has been unprecedented in the climate record. Very few average seasons especially at spots like ISP which was the opposite of the 1960s through early 1990s.Well above snowfall during the 2010s and well below in the 2020s.

[uofmiami]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NAO possibly going negative. That would be nice.

 

 

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific changing back to a less hostile state should be enough to ramp the averages back up, not to the high bonanza period of the 2010s but we should be able to cash in once in a while with offshore coastal lows and cold enough air. The West certainly can, so we should too. The overall pattern is just way too hostile and has to change. But we’re just stuck with this garbage N PAC SST anomaly state blasting us with puke. 

Need that PDO in o flip 

[Roger Smith]

Previous runs of NYC winters <20" snow (3 or more years)

Rank ___ Winters ___________________ values

_ 01 ____ 6 _ 1949-50 to 1954-55 ____14.0, 9.3, 19.7, 15.1, 15.8, 11.5

_ 02 ____ 5 _ 1927-28 to 1931-32 ____ 14.5, 13.8, 13.6, 11.6, 5.3

_ 03 ____ 4 _ 1996-97 to 1999-2000__10.0, 5.5, 12.7, 16.3

_t04 ____ 3 _ 1987-88 to 1989-90 ____19.1, 8.1, 13.4

_t04 ____ 3 _ 2021-22 to 2023-24 ___ 17.9, 2.3, 7.5

(also 6 cases of 2 consecutive winters and 18 cases of solo <20" winters)

Before 1927-28, only one consecutive pair, 1899-1900 and 1900-01, rest of six total were 

1936-37/1937-38 ... 1961-62/1962-63 ... 1974-75/1975-76 ... 1979-80/1980-81 ... 2006-07/2007-08

 

 

 

[lee59]

Maybe 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain Sunday night across the area.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a noticeably cooler day. Temperatures will climb into only the lower 50s after starting out in the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City. Clouds will increase on Sunday with periods of rain developing during the night and continuing into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall is likely. An additional round of rain is possible late next week.

Today is Philadelphia's 41st consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 41 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -14.64 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.986 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.7° (3.7° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

 

[LAVistaNY]

Howling winds here in Westchester- lost power for about 10 minutes. Scanner has reports of trees down.

[steve392]

Winds going crazy in Bergen County.  Old windows getting rattled good.