November 2024

[snywx]

On & off flurries here

Temp 38

[sussexcountyobs]

Getting what I would call a snow squall right now. Mod snow and sticking.

[ForestHillWx]

Here too; bursts of flurries throughout the afternoon. 

[donsutherland1]

A colder regime is now settling into place and will likely persist through at least mid-December. There will be some sprinkles or flurries this evening. Afterward, the skies wil clear. New York City's Central Park will very likely experience its first freeze of the season tomorrow morning. The average first freeze occurs on November 21st. That's 10 days later than the 1961-1990 average.

On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is likely. At least through much of the first week of December, precipitation will likely be below to much below normal in the region.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase.

The SOI was +6.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.544 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal). November 2024 will be the third November since 2020 with a monthly mean temperature of 50° or above. In addition, Fall 2024 will likely finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 60.4°. That would tie Fall 2017 for the 6th warmest Fall on record.

 

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, snywx said:

On & off flurries here

Temp 38

Similar here today, had to scrap the grauple off the deck earlier. 

[rclab]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A colder regime is now settling into place and will likely persist through at least mid-December. There will be some sprinkles or flurries this evening. Afterward, the skies wil clear. New York City's Central Park will very likely experience its first freeze of the season tomorrow morning. The average first freeze occurs on November 21st. That's 10 days later than the 1961-1990 average.

On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is likely. At least through much of the first week of December, precipitation will likely be below to much below normal in the region.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase.

The SOI was +6.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.544 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal). November 2024 will be the third November since 2020 with a monthly mean temperature of 50° or above. In addition, Fall 2024 will likely finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 60.4°. That would tie Fall 2017 for the 6th warmest Fall on record.

 

Don, I picked my last golden cherry tomatoes today. Looks like our inner city growing season may finally be ending.  Stay well, as always …

[steve392]

No flurries yet in se Bergen County.  Clouds certainly looked like snow clouds earlier in day but temps got up to 50 and just drizzling. 

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, rclab said:

Don, I picked my last golden cherry tomatoes today. Looks like our inner city growing season may finally be ending.  Stay well, as always …

Enjoy them. Yes, growing season will be ending now. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving Day.

[MANDA]

On and off snow showers and flurries all afternoon.  Had a moderate to heavy squall around  5:00 with gusty winds and reduced visibility.  Coated everything.  Pretty much melted now but some remains on colder surfaces.

[rclab]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Enjoy them. Yes, growing season will be ending now. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving Day.

Yes Don, I was with my daughters and peaceful. At my life stage, on the forum, it’s like being with family every day. For that I will always be thankful and never really be lonely. Stay well, as always ….

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow showers have stopped. Currently partly cloudy. Coating on everything but paved surfaces. All snow, moister on vehicles, frozen solid.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Snowing in Cape May as I pack the car to head back north. What a bewildering stretch of weather.

[ForestHillWx]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

Don, I picked my last golden cherry tomatoes today. Looks like our inner city growing season may finally be ending.  Stay well, as always …

That is just a remarkable statement of how different the micro climate of the immediate metro and out this way, about 40 miles as the crow flys. 

[MJO812]

30 degrees here

First time below freezing

Finally 

[ForestHillWx]

24 here with a projected high of 35; going to be chilly for the kids on our annual Christmas tree adventure. 

[Allsnow]

27

 

First hard freeze of the season. The latest I can remember since moving here back in 2017 

[North and West]

30 degrees here
First time below freezing
Finally 

.

[SACRUS]

 

31 / 17 , clear.   Cold the next week to 10 days with Large ridge out west and with deep trough into the east.  Cold overall the nex 10 days and coldest start to Dec in a while.  Clippers this week to watch for a coating or so, larger storm to coincide with potential warmup around the 9 - 12.

 

[qg_omega]

First time below freezing here as well, extremely late given we already had two inches of snow.  4.3 degrees above normal this month.

[dmillz25]

Got down to 29 here. First freeze of the season

[gravitylover]

13 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

That is just a remarkable statement of how different the micro climate of the immediate metro and out this way, about 40 miles as the crow flys. 

I've been below freezing a few times but the strawberries and tomatoes just kept going, even this morning there are new flowers on the strawberries! Yesterday I pulled a handful of sungolds and these other mini tomatoes I've had good luck with this year and the last couple of beefsteaks are ripening on the counter now that I picked on Monday. I'm 55 miles north of Times Square.

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

24 here with a projected high of 35; going to be chilly for the kids on our annual Christmas tree adventure. 

Enjoy every second of it.  They grow up fast!  Special times.

[MANDA]

This is a cold map for the last day of November.  Pretty impressive and not unexpected.  Another strong shot of cold into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next weekend before pattern relaxes. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Chilly winter day here. Up to 29 after a low of 22. The former Hidden Valley ski resort in town is still blowing snow as we speak. With the wind it's getting the uphill lanes of Breakneck Rd. icy. I was surprised the other ski resort Mountain Creek was not blowing snow.

[steve392]

Beautiful and cold out.  Letting puppy out and he's like wtf when the cold hit him going outside.   Currently 36 and sunny. 

[Snowlover11]

25F this morning definitely felt it. crisp chill.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 71 (1991)
NYC: 70 (1991)
LGA: 70 (1991)
JFK: 64 (2005)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1976)
NYC: 5 (1875)
LGA: 18 (1976)
JFK: 19 (1976)


Historical:

 

1875 - A severe early season cold wave set November records in the northeastern U.S. The temperature dipped to 5 above zero at New York City, 2 below at Boston MA, and 13 below at Eastport ME. (David Ludlum)

 

1925:An extremely rare late November hurricane began to affect the west coast of Florida as it strengthened during the day. The storm made landfall very early on December 1st south of Tampa Bay, weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed central Florida, and exited around St. Augustine. The storm regained Hurricane strength off Jacksonville late on the 1st. Heavy rain continued over northeast Florida on the 2nd. Gale force winds were reported from the Keys to Jacksonville and over 50 people lost their lives, mostly on ships at sea. Damage along the coast south of Jacksonville was heavy and excessive rain and wind seriously damaged citrus and truck crops.
 

1957 - Lee slope winds enhanced by Hurricane Nina gusted to 82 mph at Honolulu, Hawaii, a record wind gust for that location. Wainiha, on the island of Kauai, was deluged with 20.42 inches of rain, and 35 foot waves pounded some Kauai beaches, even though the eye of the hurricane was never within 120 miles of the islands. (30th-1st) (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A record November snowstorm struck the Washington D.C. area. It produced up to a foot of snow in a 12 hour period. (David Ludlum)

1976 - MacLeod Harbor, AK, reported a precipitation total for November of 70.99 inches, which established a state record for any month of the year. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Showers produced heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Up to three inches of rain drenched the Brandywine Creek Basin of Pennsylvania, and rainfall totals in Vermont ranged up to two inches at Dorsett. Snow fell heavily across Upper Michigan as gale force winds prevailed over Lake Superior. A storm moving into the northwestern U.S. produced gale force winds along the northern and central Pacific coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow in the Upper Great Lakes Region pushed the precipitation total for the month at Marquette, MI, past their previous November record of 7.67 inches. Santa Anna winds in southern California gusted to 75 mph at Laguna Peak. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region, with 15 inches reported at Chaffee, NY, and at Barnes Corners NY. Tropical Storm Karen drenched parts of Cuba with heavy rain. Punta Del Este reported fourteen inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[IrishRob17]

Flurries again today 34/22

[bluewave]

Top 5 driest and warmest fall on record across the region.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

This morning, the temperature fell to 30° in New York City's Central Park. That was the Park's first freeze of the season. The average first freeze occurs on November 21st. That's 10 days later than the 1961-1990 average.

Overall, November was warmer than normal. The average temperature was 51.4°, which was 3.4° above normal. Fall 2024 had a mean temperature of 60.4°, which was tied with 2017 for the 6th warmest fall on record.

Winter 2024-25 will get off to a cold start. The first 10 days of December will likely see a mean temperature below 34° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2002, when the first 10 days of December had a mean temperature of 31.2°. December will likely wind up somewhat colder than normal overall. In fact, since 1980, all four cases with a December 1-10 mean temperature below 36.5° preceded a colder than normal December while 85% of the remaining cases saw a warmer than normal December. The sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance showed an implied 65% probability of a colder than normal December.

On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is likely. At least through much of the first week of December, precipitation will likely be below to much below normal in the region. Nevertheless, a clipper system could bring a period of light snow or flurries to parts of the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase.

The SOI was +6.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.624 today.