November 2024

[psv88]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

I had almost 2 inches last week.  Pretty to look at snd about what you can expect this time of year.  Pattern upcoming has potential 

You live upstate NY. I’m talking NYC metro, Li etc 

[North and West]

The storm responsible for today's rain is now moving away from the region. In its wake, noticeably colder air will begin to move into the region. Below normal temperatures are likely for the remainder of November.
On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is likely. At least through much of the first week of December, precipitation will likely be below to much below normal in the region.
The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase.
The SOI was +19.91 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.196 today.
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal). November 2024 will be the third November since 2020 with a monthly mean temperature of 50° or above.
 

These are always super interesting even when I don’t understand half the things you mention.

Do you automatically run these reports and gauges every day? Just interested in the process.


.

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, North and West said:

These are always super interesting even when I don’t understand half the things you mention.

Do you automatically run these reports and gauges every day? Just interested in the process.


.

I run the sensitivity analysis daily. The AO and SOI values are usually available each day. 

[BxEngine]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

You live upstate NY. I’m talking NYC metro, Li etc 

Had an inch in this part of the metro. 

[lee59]

.81 here today

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.07" of rain for the day. Not bad.

[NorthShoreWx]

9 hours ago, psv88 said:

Can’t believe we’ve had zero snowflakes so far. I think my area may have mixed a bit last weekend but I was away. Still usually we’re good for some flurries in November 

We had about an hour of wet snow after midnight that day last week.

[bluewave]

Spots like NYC, ISP, and BDR were able to narrowly avoid their driest fall with the beneficial rains.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1908	4.00	0
2	1909	4.67	0
3	1881	4.93	0
4	2024	4.94	2
5	1931	4.97	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965	3.31	0
2	2024	3.70	2
3	2001	4.02	0
4	2013	4.86	0
5	1973	5.38	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1964	3.68	0
2	2024	3.74	2
3	1965	4.16	0
4	2001	4.20	0
5	2013	5.55	0

[SnoSki14]

Wow at the lake effect snow forecast. 5+ feet for some 

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow at the lake effect snow forecast. 5+ feet for some 

Big cutters going north of the record warm lakes with that amped up northern stream will do it.

 

[lee59]

Here is live webcam from Watertown NY. for anyone interested. The snow has started but has not accumulated much yet. They are expecting at least a few feet by Monday.

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/public-square-historic-district.html

[geeter1]

38 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Here is live webcam from Watertown NY. for anyone interested. The snow has started but has not accumulated much yet. They are expecting at least a few feet by Monday.

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/public-square-historic-district.html

Thank You !! 

[SACRUS]

43 / 30 clear and chilly.  Mid - upper 40s today then colder the next 7 - 10 days.  Opening of Dec coldest in a while, perhaps since 2010.  WC large ridge with deep trough into the east, likely reinforced in the Dec 6 - 8 period.  Cold first half of Dec all but guaranteed.  Will there be some trackable events to coincide - to be determined.  Peak cold looks next weekend.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Rainfall totals:

 

JFK: 0.95
NYC: 0.86
EWR: 0.83
LGA: 0.79
New Brnswck: 0.74

[SACRUS]

 

 

Drier / Cold week as currently forecasted - Lake Effect Snows showing nicely on the 7 Day QPF

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1990)
NYC: 69 (1990)
LGA: 69 (1990)
JFK: 64 (2017)

Low:

EWR: 15 (1955)
NYC: 14 (1875)
LGA: 17 (1955)
JFK: 25 (1989)

 

Historical:

 

1896 - The mercury plunged to 51 degrees below zero at Havre, MT. It marked the culmination of a two week long cold wave caused by a stagnate high pressure area similar to those over Siberia during the winter. During the month of November temperatures across Montana and the Dakotas averaged 15 to 25 degrees below normal. (David Ludlum)

1969 - Dense fog along the Jersey Turnpike resulted in a chain reaction of vehicle collisions during the morning rush hour. A propane truck jacknifed and was struck by a trailor truck, and other vehicles piled into the fiery mass. (David Ludlum)

1975 - Red River was buried under 34 inches of snow in 24 hours, establishing a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - The temperature at Bismarck, ND, plunged to 30 degrees below zero to establish their record low for the month of November. The high that day was 4 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Snow blanketed the Upper Mississippi Valley, with heavy snow reported near Lake Superior. Up to ten inches of snow was reported in Douglas County and Bayfield County of Wisconsin. Brule WI received nine inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked the Middle Atlantic Coast States, while gale force winds lashed the coastline. Flooding was reported in Maryland and Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Nine inches of snow at Alta UT brought their total for the month to 164 inches, surpassing their previous November record of 144 inches. Snowbird UT, also in the Little Cottonwood Valley, surpassed their November record of 118 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong Santa Ana winds diminished over southern California, but record cold was reported in some of the California valleys, with readings of 27 degrees at Redding and 31 degrees at Bakersfield. Gale force winds, gusting to 44 mph at Milwuakee WI, produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Sault Ste Marie MI finished the month of November with a record 46.8 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991:A tornado struck southeast Springfield, Missouri, causing F4 damage. Shortly after touchdown, the tornado reached F3 intensity, approximately 3 miles north of the town of Nixa. While crossing Highway 65, the tornado picked up a truck and dropped it onto a frontage road, killing one passenger and injuring ten others. The tornado intensified to F4 strength as it moved through the Woodbridge and Natural Bridge Estates subdivisions where 15 homes were destroyed. Altogether, two people were killed and 64 others were injured.

 

 

[MANDA]

Trace of snow here this morning from a quick moving band of rain showers that quickly transitioned to wet snow. Just a trace of snow on rooftops and the deck.  Had .66" liquid from the two day event.

[psv88]

Doesn’t look that cold for the next week. Highs around 40 and lows in the 20s. Nothing to write home about 

[Stormlover74]

45 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Doesn’t look that cold for the next week. Highs around 40 and lows in the 20s. Nothing to write home about 

5 to 10 below is frigid now

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

5 to 10 below is frigid now

True. Based on how people are posting you would think we were going into the teens and twenties…

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

True. Based on how people are posting you would think we were going into the teens and twenties…

We're so used to +5 as the norm now we just come to expect 50s in December 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

True. Based on how people are posting you would think we were going into the teens and twenties…

It probably ends up colder than the model numbers are spitting out, there can be a tendency for the guidance to skew towards whatever climo norms are at day 5-6-7

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

True. Based on how people are posting you would think we were going into the teens and twenties…

Average temps

We haven't seen a cold December in years though. 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Doesn’t look that cold for the next week. Highs around 40 and lows in the 20s. Nothing to write home about 

 

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

True. Based on how people are posting you would think we were going into the teens and twenties…

So 20s or no 20s for you?

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

True. Based on how people are posting you would think we were going into the teens and twenties…

Hard to get that cold in early December. 
 

teens and twenties more common in January/feb 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Hard to get that cold in early December. 
 

teens and twenties more common in January/feb 

Even when you look at 1989 and 2000 which were 2 of the coldest recent Decembers your coldest weather was 12/20 and after.  To even get lows of like 22 degrees the first week requires an impressive air mass.

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

So 20s or no 20s for you?

For highs lol. 
 

I’m sure I’ll drop into the low 20s at night. Show me a sub freezing high and I’ll take notice. 40-45? Next please 

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow flurries flying. 38.0°

[winterwx21]

47 minutes ago, psv88 said:

For highs lol. 
 

I’m sure I’ll drop into the low 20s at night. Show me a sub freezing high and I’ll take notice. 40-45? Next please 

It does look much colder at the end of the week though. We should see highs only in the 30s Friday into next weekend, which is well below normal. I just hope we get a little snow out of this cold pattern eventually.