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2 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Possible 1-2" snow by me late tonight Into early a.m. tomorrow? Any thoughts? 

If precip can come in sooner we may be able to squeeze out some accumulating frozen stuff but ehh.. WAA looks to go north of us. 

Im currently at 35/30 here. Should start frozen 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The storm is moving very fast so we should dry out by later in the day with a gusty westerly flow developing.


IMG_2109.thumb.png.23fbfc15eb4ad47f58b6d62d9989599f.png

With today’s rain, most areas are saved from the driest fall on record. However, this met fall will almost certainly end up in the top 5 driest falls on record region wide

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46 / 44 moderate rain.  0.36 in the bucket and likely to double that.  Rain looks to fizzle out in the afternoon, bringing a total of 0.75 - 1.00 to most.   Drier and colder heading into the weekend with overall below normal with a cold start to Dec with peaks of the cold between 2 -4 and reinforcing shot at Day 7-10 (6- 8th) with strong ridge into the w c / PNW and trough into the east/  We'll have to watch any storm threats materialize.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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18 hours ago, Dark Star said:

That's okay, the Macy's parade has become a joke.  Even CBS is not going to air it...

Mods can remove for off-topic, but I’m curious what you think has changed about it.  To me, it’s the same, cheesy constellation of advertisements that, for some reason, I’ve always enjoyed watching since I was a little kid.

Also, wasn’t it always on NBC?

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2 hours ago, snywx said:

Had about 10 mins of snow now 32 w/ rain. Elevations getting hit hard again. General 3-6” in areas above 1200’

Had a few flakes mixed in early, early this morning with temps in mid 30's. But nothing. And I'm just over 1200'. Seems like this one was a more north to south dependent. 

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3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Had a few flakes mixed in early, early this morning with temps in mid 30's. But nothing. And I'm just over 1200'. Seems like this one was a more north to south dependent. 

Im N of you. Elevation here above 1200' have a general 2-3" Just came back from Highview area of Otisville and they have around 2-3" Elevation there is roughly 1300' on Wurtsboro Mtn. 

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48 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Mods can remove for off-topic, but I’m curious what you think has changed about it.  To me, it’s the same, cheesy constellation of advertisements that, for some reason, I’ve always enjoyed watching since I was a little kid.

Also, wasn’t it always on NBC?

Both NBC and CBS...

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27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Can’t believe we’ve had zero snowflakes so far. I think my area may have mixed a bit last weekend but I was away. Still usually we’re good for some flurries in November 

I had almost 2 inches last week.  Pretty to look at snd about what you can expect this time of year.  Pattern upcoming has potential 

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The storm responsible for today's rain is now moving away from the region. In its wake, noticeably colder air will begin to move into the region. Below normal temperatures are likely for the remainder of November.

On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is likely. At least through much of the first week of December, precipitation will likely be below to much below normal in the region.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase.

The SOI was +19.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.196 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal). November 2024 will be the third November since 2020 with a monthly mean temperature of 50° or above.

 

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