Stormlover74 Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern recognition but I think December doesn't end up cold with the ridge flexing . Wait snowman says cold and you don't? What is happening? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait snowman says cold and you don't? What is happening? I am thinking cold and wintry ( more wintry inland ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 Looking like .75 to 1" for most for the week. I'll take it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looking like .75 to 1" for most for the week. I'll take it Looks like just a tenth to quarter inch tomorrow morning, but a more significant rainfall for Thanksgiving to get us to that .75 to 1" for the week. I agree with you ... bad timing for the holiday, but we really need the rain so we'll gladly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Looks like just a tenth to quarter inch tomorrow morning, but a more significant rainfall for Thanksgiving. I agree with you ... bad timing for the holiday, but we really need the rain so we'll gladly take it. Yeah and if the gfs is right it's more spread out so it won't be heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 We need the cold to have a chance at snow on the coast. with it we have a chance instead of no chance at all 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25 Author Share Posted November 25 Just now, Allsnow said: We need the cold to have a chance at snow on the coast. with it we have a chance instead of no chance at all Yeah we can usually squeeze out a couple minor events at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah we can usually squeeze out a couple minor events at least. Yup. I don’t hate cold dry at this time of year with the holidays as it sets the feel. After January 1 I have no use for it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We need the cold to have a chance at snow on the coast. with it we have a chance instead of no chance at all Couldn't agree more. With 2 weeks of consistent cold weather, odds are high that a snow threat or 2 will pop up even if the models aren't showing anything right now. Odds look pretty high that the coast will see an accumulating snow in December this year. I'm excited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We need the cold to have a chance at snow on the coast. with it we have a chance instead of no chance at all 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Euro shifted east towards the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Thanksgiving washout for most-blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Thanksgiving washout for most-blah 1989 was the last white Thanksgiving but we have warmed up quite a bit since then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Thanksgiving washout for most-blah Ugh. We need the rain but I rather that day be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait snowman says cold and you don't? What is happening? The simulation is glitching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Thanksgiving washout for most-blah We might be able to salvage mid to late afternoon. On the CMC the rain ends midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 12z Euro gives us a snow event on the 7th. Obviously fantasy range and not to be taken very seriously, but with plenty of cold air for the first couple weeks of December we're going to have a real shot of seeing something at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 2 hours ago, bluewave said: 1989 was the last white Thanksgiving but we have warmed up quite a bit since then. 2014 I had 10" the day before T-giving. It figures it's going to rain in the morning, my father-in-law's funeral is a graveside service at 11am in Glendale. It was cold, windy and raw when my dad passed in April and now we get to do it again. Uggh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 For fond November memories... Will be in the city for Thanksgiving would have much preferred better weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 5 hours ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro gives us a snow event on the 7th. Obviously fantasy range and not to be taken very seriously, but with plenty of cold air for the first couple weeks of December we're going to have a real shot of seeing something at some point. Accu weather long range also sees the potential for some frozen precipitation in that date range. Stay well all and hopeful. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Gfs and euro are both soakers for thanksgiving now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Probably noticing a southward shift to the coming snow event for I84 (mixing with or changing to rain at times) on Thanksgiving. Glad the GFS op is finally back in the event boat... can't understand why it dropped out for a couple of days. No thread NYC forum on this one but the distant nw suburbs will see a little snow Thursday morning...probably slippery on untreated surfaces in the elevations of northern Sussex County through the Poconos--- I can see spotty 6" highest northern Poconos if the recent southward trend in the modeling is correct. At least that option has returned. Fortunately power has returned to all but 3000 customers there in ne PA. As for longer range: I know CP did not see any wet snowflakes on ASOS for 11/21-22... (NYC suburbs and parts of LI did), I think odds favor minor accumulations (mainly nighttime) for CP sometime between Nov 30-Dec 14 (at least 0.1"). It could just be from nw flow snow showers (Lake Effect snow streak) or maybe a more general snow at the beginning of a larger scale event. I'll check back tomorrow and if I can remember, I'll post CoCoRaHs 7 day qpf on Friday around 10AM. The drought monitor on Dec 3 (corrected date) should reflect more improvement above whatever is posted tomorrow-Nov 26. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: For fond November memories... Will be in the city for Thanksgiving would have much preferred better weather. One of the all-time commuting nightmares given that the City was expected to quickly change to rain and almost no one stayed home. Sadly turned out to be the peak of that winter... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 54 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: One of the all-time commuting nightmares given that the City was expected to quickly change to rain and almost no one stayed home. Sadly turned out to be the peak of that winter... took me 3 hours to get back from court in riverhead. Disaster of a commute. Usually takes 35 min and there is never any traffic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week and likely for some time to come. Temperatures will top out in the middle and perhaps upper 50s, even as showers and a period of rain are likely. A storm will bring additional rain on Thursday into Thursday night. Colder air will begin to move into the region following the Thanksgiving Day storm. On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance is in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is possible. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. The SOI was +17.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.120 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0° (3.0° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: One of the all-time commuting nightmares given that the City was expected to quickly change to rain and almost no one stayed home. Sadly turned out to be the peak of that winter... Driving from Melville to Long Beach that evening was an absolute nightmare. Was a car graveyard on the Seaford/Oyster Bay. I was happy to see it was very snowy also in Long Beach but the 2.5 hour drive home sucked. I thought after that storm we’d have another good winter like 17-18 but of course didn’t happen. It was a little better since I moved to where I live now a month after. The March storms were OK where I am now and all rain or white rain on the barrier islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Just heard thunder. Seemed odd, I have not heard that much in the past months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Look like phases 1/2 as we start January, albeit not too strong of a wave. I think Ninas typically are colder December into the first half of January? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Look like phases 1/2 as we start January, albeit not too strong of a wave. I think Ninas typically are colder December into the first half of January? A classic “front-loaded” Niña winter is typically cold from November/December to mid-January then it goes mild. February and into March are usually the “canonical” Niña torch months 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 26 Author Share Posted November 26 Short-lived but pouring at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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