November 2024

[MJO812]

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

[steve392]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

Good.  I need my front grass to stop growing.  Mowed again today.  

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

I think the cold shot to open December will be rather impressive.  Surprised it is not getting more attention.  Going to have significant wind chills over a large area and hefty Lake Effect snows associated with it.  It addition cold looks to reload behind first outbreak.  First two weeks of December (at least) look to have solidly below normal temperatures.  Lack of widespread U.S. snowfall for first shot will certainly help moderate the first cold shot  but maybe one after that will have U.S. snow cover to work with.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I think the cold shot to open December will be rather impressive.  Surprised it is not getting more attention.  Going to have significant wind chills over a large area and hefty Lake Effect snows associated with it.

It’s being discussed in the main forum in the La Niña thread since we don’t have a December thread here yet.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the records committee in NJ can confirm the new state snowfall record for November.

 

 

Modern snowfall records from the public need an asterisk since they are compared to historic records taken at fixed climate sites, but now can come from literally anywhere - in this case, the highest spot in the state. How much snow fell at 1800’ in the 1938 storm, if 17.5” was observed in a city at 558’ elevation?

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s being discussed in the main forum in the La Niña thread since we done have a December thread here yet.

Thanks!  Didn't know that.  Will check it out.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Modern snowfall records from the public need an asterisk since they are compared to historic records taken at fixed climate sites, but now can come from literally anywhere - in this case, the highest spot in the state. How much snow fell at 1800’ in the 1938 storm, if 17.5” was observed in a city at 558’ elevation?

It’s also difficult to compare to the distant past since we don’t measure the snowfall the same way as we used to.

 

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be the warmest days of the week and likely for some time to come. Temperatures will top out in the middle and perhaps upper 50s, especially on Tuesday.

Afterward colder air will begin to move into the region. On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance is in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is possible.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased.

The SOI was +21.82 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.130 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.9° (2.9° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

EPS is deep artic to start December 

 

coldest since 2017? 

[North and West]

Still have not had a solid freeze here in Metuchen. It probably ends for everyone next weekend, but this is the longest I have not reached 32 degrees in years 

That’s wild.


.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, North and West said:

That’s wild.


.

Same here

[mob1]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same here

But you live 7 inches from the ocean and your average first freeze is far later than his. 

Either way, everyone and their mother will get a proper deep freeze next weekend or a few days afterward. 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s also difficult to compare to the distant past since we don’t measure the snowfall the same way as we used to.

 

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

 

True, although, in this case, with a random public report from the monument, I suspect it was measured the “old-fashioned” way by just sticking a yard stick in the snow after it stopped.

 

[forkyfork]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

cold with cutters in between

[qg_omega]

Had two inches of snow on the year but have not been below 32 this year so far

 

[Volcanic Winter]

11 hours ago, Allsnow said:

EPS is deep artic to start December 

 

coldest since 2017? 

I just did a double take checking my temps. On the western edge of Toms River, my nighttime lows are always cold in my location and on good radiative cooling nights I’m not far off some spots in north Jersey. 

But I’m seeing daytime highs in the 30’s to start December, potentially? Wild. 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

cold with cutters in between

Storm track shouldn't be that bad. 

[bluewave]

It’s been a while since we have seen this much model spread at 84 hours. The Euro has a more consolidated storm. The GFS has 2 weaker waves and is strung out. Still warm with both along the coast but the Euro would give us heavier rains which we need.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since we have seen this much model spread at 84 hours. The Euro has a more consolidated storm. The GFS has 2 weaker waves and is strung out. Still warm with both along the coast but the Euro would give us heavier rains which we need.

AI Euro also folded. More amplified. Gfs is most likely too flat here.

[SACRUS]

 

42  / 32 clear.  Warmest two days (Mon / Tue) of the next 2 weeks potentially.  Mid 50s today, mid - upper 50s, to 60 in the warmer spots on Tuedsy with clouds and light rain.   Clouds remain Wed before some moderate rainfall Thu >1.00 inch likely.  Much colder by Thanksgiving weekend with a strong rd=idge into the PNW and deep trough into the east to open Dec (1 - 7th / 10 daya).  Coldest start to Dec with current forecasts, since 2010.   Could yield some snow.  Beyond there moderating towards mid month, but near to below normal till then.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 73 (1979)
NYC: 73 (1979)
LGA: 68 (1979)
JFK: 67 (1979)


Lows;

EWR: 19 (1938)
NYC: 19 (1938)
LGA: 23 (2005)
JFK: 22 (2005)

 

Historical:

 

 

1950 - A great storm hit the Northern and Central Appalachians with snow and high winds. Winds reached hurricane force along eastern slopes of the Appalachians, with gusts to 100 mph at Hartford CT, 110 mph at Concord NH, and 160 mph at Mount Washington NH. Heavy rain also hit the eastern slopes, with eight inches reported at Slide Mountain NY. The western slopes were buried under heavy snow. The storm produced record snowfall totals of 27.7 inches at Pittsburgh PA, and 36.3 inches at Steubenville OH. The snow, and record cold temperatures, resulted in 160 deaths. (25th-26th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1950: Called the "storm of the century" this storm impacted the eastern part of the US, killing hundreds and causing millions of dollars in damages. New York City recorded a 94 mph wind gust and Bear Mountain, just north of the city recorded a 140 mph gust. Record low temperatures were reported on the southern end of this storm in Tennessee and North Carolina. This storm was unique as Pittsburgh saw 30 inches of snow, while Buffalo saw 50 degrees with 50 mph wind gusts.

1970 - The temperature at Tallahassee, FL, dipped to 13 degrees, following a high of 40 degrees the previous day. The mercury then reached 67 degrees on the 26th, and highs were in the 70s the rest of the month. (The Weather Channel)

1983 - The Great Thanksgiving Weekend Blizzard hit Denver, CO. The storm produced 21.5 inches of snow in 37 hours, closing Stapleton Airport for 24 hours. The snow and wind closed interstate highways around Denver. Visibility at Limon CO was down to zero for 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - An early morning thunderstorm in southeastern Texas produced high winds which rolled a mobile home east of Bay City killing two of the four occupants. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in central and eastern Texas, with nine inches reported at Huntsville, and 8.5 inches at Wimberly. Snow fell across northern and central Lower Michigan, with totals ranging up to nine inches at Cadillac. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwest Texas during the day and into the night. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail at Alba, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Krum. Hail and high winds caused nearly five million dollars damage at Kaufman TX, and strong downburst winds derailed twenty-eight freight cars at Fruitvale TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

1950 Storm - Appalachian Storm of the Century

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-appalachian-snowstorm-november-1950

[SACRUS]

 

NYC Thanksgiving Weather

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Thanksgivingwx.pdf

[SACRUS]

15 hours ago, Allsnow said:

EPS is deep artic to start December 

 

coldest since 2017? 

2017 opended above normal with the strong cold between the 8th and 16th.  Cold opening being forecast is closer to the 2010 start, or coldest since then.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro also folded. More amplified. Gfs is most likely too flat here.

Gfs is still wet, it just spreads it out over 2 days whereas euro is in one shot

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro also folded. More amplified. Gfs is most likely too flat here.

Anytime we have a sustained ridge out west like this you can usually assume the GFS will be too flat.  It only beats the Euro regularly in those more progressive setups

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Anytime we have a sustained ridge out west like this you can usually assume the GFS will be too flat.  It only beats the Euro regularly in those more progressive setups

Models went the other way at 12z

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models went the other way at 12z

Would you actually be surprised if this trends way drier Anthony? Besides the one lone anomalous event we saw last week, this has been the same old story since the drought started in mid-August. Status quo dry pattern, minus that one blip in a sea of dryness. It’s been finding ways not to rain for months. I wouldn’t be shocked one bit if December ends up cold and dry

@Stormlover74 Take the under on this event. I think this trends drier and drier from here on out

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Would you actually be surprised if this trends way drier Anthony? Besides the one lone anomalous event we saw last week, this has been the same old story since the drought started in mid-August. Status quo dry pattern, minus that one blip in a sea of dryness. It’s been finding ways not to rain for months. I wouldn’t be shocked one bit if December ends up cold and dry

Pattern recognition but I think December doesn't end up cold with the ridge flexing .

[wdrag]

19 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Modern snowfall records from the public need an asterisk since they are compared to historic records taken at fixed climate sites, but now can come from literally anywhere - in this case, the highest spot in the state. How much snow fell at 1800’ in the 1938 storm, if 17.5” was observed in a city at 558’ elevation?

In agreement...  I don't like anyone using records less than 50 years old. Records will always be subject to doubt (CP, all the metal sites and how cli sites move around).  

I used to publish climate records (NWS days) but I stayed away from the short POR or noted.  Now that we're seemingly in warmer wetter wilder environment, I'd probably stay away from daily records unless out of season, and move to monthly or seasonal records-perspectives.   Just too many words that dont mean much to most listeners (except maybe for you and I).  

Maybe we can do records with environmental factors considered... just the out of season norm such as warm or cold thicknesses, PW's out of range.    In other words...a 565 thickness that used to be rare in October, might be a little more frequent now,  permitting heavier rainfall, warmer temps.