NorthShoreWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Hiked in Harriman today. Patchy snow at the trailhead, 6"at 1000 feet and 12" at 1200 feet. Crazy fast change in snow depth, especially higher up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 32 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Hiked in Harriman today. Patchy snow at the trailhead, 6"at 1000 feet and 12" at 1200 feet. Crazy fast change in snow depth, especially higher up. Couldn't make it out for a hike today. Really wanted to break in the snowshoes. Hoping Thanksgiving weekend gives us another round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Just noticed, dry spell ended with a new record daily precip value of 1.57" for Nov 21 (was 1.33" in 1944). (NYC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Hiked in Harriman today. Patchy snow at the trailhead, 6"at 1000 feet and 12" at 1200 feet. Crazy fast change in snow depth, especially higher up. Yeah the differences in just a couple hundred feet with this one were crazy. Drove 84 West today...theres a 970 foot elevation sign just east of the taconic and there was full coverage of several inches. Just a couple minutes drive either side of the sign was 100% bare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 On 11/9/2024 at 12:13 AM, SRRTA22 said: In my opinion, there's signal for a big storm thanksgiving week. It'll probably turn into nothing but I think the signal warrants a thread of it's still there by 11/15. I didn't say snowstorm I said big storm and obviously there's going to be some type of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 3 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: I didn't say snowstorm I said big storm and obviously there's going to be some type of storm The 00Z operational Euro has it over eastern LI Thursday evening. I think it's going to be all rain at the coast but it's starting to look like heavy wind-driven rain, nasty. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112400/ec-fast_T850_neus_6.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Hopefully, the more amped up Euro and CMC with heavier rainfall are closer to the mark than the weak and strung out GFS since we need the rainfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: The 00Z operational Euro has it over eastern LI Thursday evening. I think it's going to be all rain at the coast but it's starting to look like heavy wind-driven rain, nasty. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112400/ec-fast_T850_neus_6.png Euro is an outlier right now. Even the Euro AI is a whiff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is an outlier right now. Even the Euro AI is a whiff. you're not getting snow 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 A colder pattern will begin to settle in over the next week. But snowfall prospects for the big cities of the East will remain low. Interior sections, especially the lake effect belt, central/upstate New York into central and northern New England could see a moderate or significant snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 47 / 36 winds calming. Near to slightly above normal Sun - Tue low to mid 50s, near 60 Mon and Tue in the warm spots. Light rain Tue <0.25 for most. Then the next system Thu into Friday. >1.00 (1-2 inches of rain). Colder starting Thanksgiving weekend and into the first week to 10 days of Dec - peak (core) of the cold looks around Dec 2 - 5. Storm chances would bring risk of snow. Coldest open to Dec since 2010 potentially Dec 1 - 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 32 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you're not getting snow No one said anything. Keep humping the crappy Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Still have not had a solid freeze here in Metuchen. It probably ends for everyone next weekend, but this is the longest I have not reached 32 degrees in years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Records: Highs: EWR: 75 (1979) NYC: 73 (1979) LGA: 68 (1989) JFK: 64 (2014) Lows: EWR: 20 (1989) NYC: 14 (1880) LGA: 22 (1956) JFK: 21 (2001) Historical: 1812 - Southwesterly winds of hurricane force sank ships and unroofed buildings at Philadelphia and New York City. (David Ludlum) 1863 - The battle above the clouds was fought on Lookout Mountain near Chattanooga. Pre-frontal clouds obscured the upper battle- field aiding a Union victory. (David Ludlum) 1950 - The temperature at Chicago, IL, dipped to 2 below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29th in 1872. On the first of the month that year Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - Hurricane Iwa lashed the Hawaiian Islands of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu with high winds and surf. Winds gusting to 120 mph caused extensive shoreline damage. Damage totalled 150 million dollars on Kauai, and fifty million dollars on Oahu. The peak storm surge on the south shore was six to eight feet. It marked the first time in 25 years that Hawaii had been affected by a hurricane. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southern Missouri, southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Flooding was reported in Greene County of southwestern Missouri. Springfield MO was drenched with more than six inches of rain. Thunderstorms over southern Texas produced more than eight inches of rain in Caldwell County and Hayes County, and thunderstorms over south central Oklahoma produced one inch hail at Temple twice within an hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure brought heavy snow and high winds to the Northern and Central Rockies. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 40 inches at Wolf Creek Pass, with 27 inches falling in 24 hours. Telluride CO received 32 inches of snow, and winds atop Mines Peak gusted to 95 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Still have not had a solid freeze here in Metuchen. It probably ends for everyone next weekend, but this is the longest I have not reached 32 degrees in years Looks to end for sure and the period to open Dec looks potentially well below normal. I went back a bit but would need some confirmation that the current forecasts would be the coldest open (1-7th) of Dec since 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still have not had a solid freeze here in Metuchen. It probably ends for everyone next weekend, but this is the longest I have not reached 32 degrees in years Yeah, Newark is on track for one of their latest first freezes. Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1985 04-10 (1985) 30 12-02 (1985) 30 235 1979 04-08 (1979) 31 11-29 (1979) 32 234 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 11-28 (2016) 32 231 2010 03-27 (2010) 28 11-27 (2010) 32 244 1978 04-03 (1978) 31 11-25 (1978) 32 235 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one said anything. Keep humping the crappy Euro. I'd be surprised if GFS is right about Turkey Day. I mean a 6z miss?..Where have we seen that before?.And even though the parade will be wet, we do need that rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 14 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Hiked in Harriman today. Patchy snow at the trailhead, 6"at 1000 feet and 12" at 1200 feet. Crazy fast change in snow depth, especially higher up. I'm surprised. I expected almost all of it to have been melted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 19 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I'm surprised. I expected almost all of it to have been melted... Had 6.5" here. As of this morning 80-90% coverage with an AVERAGE depth of 2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 27 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I'm surprised. I expected almost all of it to have been melted... Shorter days and low Sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 38 minutes ago, WX-PA said: I'd be surprised if GFS is right about Turkey Day. I mean a 6z miss?..Where have we seen that before?.And even though the parade will be wet, we do need that rain. I like the 06z ICON idea, sort of between both models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 It will be interesting to see if the records committee in NJ can confirm the new state snowfall record for November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: you're not getting snow It must be getting colder under the bridge. As always ….. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 FWIW the 12z models have shown some interest in allowing the Dec 1 wave to become more of its own entity, as seen on the GEFS. the airmass is much better and the -NAO is more established, so this is worth watching IMO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Op runs today showing some light snow chances after thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 The higher temps than forecast are steepening the low level lapse rates leading to some peak gusts over 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24 Author Share Posted November 24 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Op runs today showing some light snow chances after thanksgiving Looks cool and dry that week but I suppose we could squeeze out a light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks cool and dry that week but I suppose we could squeeze out a light event The ridge position leads me to believe it won’t be that dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: FWIW the 12z models have shown some interest in allowing the Dec 1 wave to become more of its own entity, as seen on the GEFS. the airmass is much better and the -NAO is more established, so this is worth watching IMO Yeah I picked up on that one too, I referred to it as the dec 2 clipper, but timing and wave characteristics will probably change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Shorter days and low Sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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