November 2024

[MANDA]

39 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Wow. At that elevation, I would think you'd have at least 6-8". Maybe the heavier banding last night missed to your north. Plus you're probably 20 miles south of me. If this light snow keeps up once sun starts going down, I think we both can pick up another inch or 2.

I was watching radar last night / overnight and the band did drift north for a while that is what limited my snowfall total.  I was on the southern edge of things for a while.

[psv88]

Still low 40s and drizzle here in Toronto! Crazy it’s snowing so far south and warm here 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I was watching radar last night / overnight and the band did drift north for a while that is what limited my snowfall total.  I was on the southern edge of things for a while.

I didn't look at radar at all. I never do. Went to sleep by 9:30. Lol. Nice steady snow falling here. Hope it lasts while the sun goes down. It will accumulate. 

[brooklynwx99]

my initial impression of late Nov into early Dec so far is that the persistently +AAM that's being forecasted combined with +EAMT event is extending the Pacific jet more than is typical of La Nina. extensions are often favorable for us, and I believe these factors are overriding the largely unfavorable MJO passage

this general pattern favors +EAMT into early Dec, allowing for a persistently extended Pacific jet that leads to an Aleutian trough. the MJO isn't a silver bullet, and i do think we're seeing a break in the typically strong MJO correlation

[donsutherland1]

From Milford, PA from my sister:

[snywx]

Temps been 32-33 all day with steady lgt snow throughout the day. No additional accumulation. Still at 4” otg

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Still low 40s and drizzle here in Toronto! Crazy it’s snowing so far south and warm here 

Welcome to New York 

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, colder air rushed into the region. Rain changed to wet snow for a time even in nearby suburbs where there was a slushy coating of snow in many places. White Plains picked up 2" of snow. The highest amount in the region was 20.0" at High Point, NJ, but that figure was from 8:30 am.

The departing storm will likely be followed by a short period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures before it turns milder early next week.

A stronger shot of cold could arrive late in the month. The first week of December will likely feature generally below normal temperatures.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased.

The SOI was +12.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.976 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2° (3.2° above normal).

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my initial impression of late Nov into early Dec so far is that the persistently +AAM that's being forecasted combined with +EAMT event is extending the Pacific jet more than is typical of La Nina. extensions are often favorable for us, and I believe these factors are overriding the largely unfavorable MJO passage

this general pattern favors +EAMT into early Dec, allowing for a persistently extended Pacific jet that leads to an Aleutian trough. the MJO isn't a silver bullet, and i do think we're seeing a break in the typically strong MJO correlation

Its been hard to know in recent years if the MJO is really the problem or its just coincidentally been in bad phases when the Pac has otherwise been bad.  Many of those winters such as 93-94 95-96 00-01 02-03 03-04 09-10 10-11 13-14 all had the MJO in bad phases and yet the pattern was still favorable here.

[Picard]

I took a ride around before.  The range was 0-10.5"   Zero at work, and 10.5" at a point up just off Glen Road in Sparta that I could get out and measure, near the top of the hill.  Total winter wonderland.  That should be about 1250-1300 feet, give or take.   Pretty wild that the amounts range from 0-20" (at High Point) in the same small county, relatively speaking.  

One to remember for future reference, for sure.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its been hard to know in recent years if the MJO is really the problem or its just coincidentally been in bad phases when the Pac has otherwise been bad.  Many of those winters such as 93-94 95-96 00-01 02-03 03-04 09-10 10-11 13-14 all had the MJO in bad phases and yet the pattern was still favorable here.

yup, it was in the "good phases" in Feb 2012 as well

[cardinalland]

the MJO’s also just so far from here compared to other influences like EPO, NAO, pacific, atlantic, even el niño …

[mannynyc]

Weather porn

[forkyfork]

how often does a dry slot wrap west of us

[FPizz]

Burst of mod snow the past 45 minutes here.  Dusting on all cold surfaces 

[ebwx]

Working at 270 Park in Midtown (new Chase global HQ), we had wind driven snow for a few minutes earlier this morning.  Rough elevation 1000' above street level. Good times for sure.

 

 

[Snowlover11]

20 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Weather porn

cool question mark

[ForestHillWx]

Heaviest snow of the storm here. Roads are covered. Looks like 3+ on fence posts. 

[snywx]

Felt like mid winter today. Lgt snow throughout the day, snow cover w/ temps 32-33 throughout. Currently 32 w/ lgt snow continuing. Secondary roads are slushed up again 

[sussexcountyobs]

Still light snow falling. Measured 11". 32.2°

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Heaviest snow of the storm here. Roads are covered. Looks like 3+ on fence posts. 

I took a drive up 206 from hillsborough and once I got to 300 feet around peapack I started to see accumulations. And yeah when I got a few miles out of Chester it really picked up and even roads were slushy

[TriPol]

How's next week looking for snow?

[MANDA]

Light to very light snow all day added little but several heavier bursts late afternoon into the evening added about 2”.  Total event snowfall 6.5”.

[Snowlover11]

been snowing lightly here for the past two hours, additional dusting on the car.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

As the pivot happens heading out to the ocean,i see nyc ending as a burst of snow. Its rare to see any storm moving south east down nj. Im curious as to see the interaction with the ocean once it exits the coast.

[Snowlover11]

Once outta Nanuet it turned to rain.  Raining in Yonkers.

[SRRTA22]

This would be late October weather 20-30 years ago 

[Pellice]

Does our drought pattern appear to be broken or fading?  Not the drought itself, but the dry pattern?

[wdrag]

30 minutes ago, Pellice said:

Does our drought pattern appear to be broken or fading?  Not the drought itself, but the dry pattern?

A little early to be sure if its over, but we're looking better with two more precip events between now and November 29. Will add maps of snowfall (CoCoRaHs) and 3 day rainfall at 10AM and then next Tuesday I think the drought monitor updates... definitely has to show improvement. 

First 10 days of December will tend to be colder and drier than normal, blustery chill... but I suspect that one or two precip events will more clearly emerge as the days advance toward December...at least trying to keep the current months (Nov-Dec) closer to normal. 

[wdrag]

I am not starting a thread, at least not yet...since again the NYC core portion of the subforum may see only rain... but for what its worth... P-WSSI for late Thanksgiving-Friday of next week.  I made some comments in the graphic...just click it for clarity.