November 2024

[donsutherland1]

Three photos from this morning.

White Plains:

West Harrison:

 

[eduggs]

Driving around NE Morris County... couple observations:

Slushy accumulations began at about 600ft and rapidly increased above 1000ft.

No acc. at 500ft
Coating at 600ft
1" at 750ft
2" at 900ft
6" at 1100ft

 

[Allsnow]

Snowing at DCA and BWI 

[Allsnow]

Might be a time for flakes around the metro 

[forkyfork]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Might be a time for flakes around the metro 

this storm is so wrapped up it's upside down

[mikeysed]

High Point NJ - Elevation 1800 just hit 21" of snow. Insane

[Allsnow]

 

[eduggs]

Overall I thought guidance performed very well for this storm. The complex synoptics were well modeled by midrange guidance and the thermals were fairly accurately depicted by mesos and even midrange with hi-res thermals.

Models correctly predicted the major snows in elevated parts of Sussex, the snow into lower Westchester, the approx. snow line at 700ft or so, and even flakes in the air for much of the region.

When the model output shows a snow event, IMO it's a good idea to believe it... especially when you have inter-model and multi-model support. I know in previous decades it was unpopular to practice so-called modelology, but weather models have come a long way. Medium and especially short-range models are pretty accurate. Despite this event being well-advertised, it still seemed to sneak up on some people.

Welcome to winter!

[Dark Star]

33 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I try to incorporate all views, media (they tend to be slow to respond-that's their editors imo and they seem more concerned about a general story) and also herein. 

I heard some discouraging comments way back about this event... one of them the NW flow downslope killing it.  Don't think it worked.  Dynamics and steep moist lapse rates within a deep anomalous closed low aloft overcame the perceived downslope effect. 

The other about OKX and nothing within 35 mi of NYC.  I as a forecaster tend to be a little more liberal permitting options that others are more conservative on--- NWS has to be tight one message and COLLABORATIVE conservative so as not to juice the media-us. Therefore they might run a slower, whereas we can dynamically respond faster...not tied to collaboration, and of course we're not official. 

I prefer less absolutes on this forum... too much we don't really know.

Modeling as I used it.. in essence the 12K NAM was not very good... it's 3K descendent much better as well as the HRRR and then the three big globals (GFS/EC/GGEM).  NBM was not very good--- sorry---it just wasn't, nor the statistical probs of 1" snow etc... those need to be upgraded for elevations. The probabilistic (P-WSSI) driven by model inputs was OK... but not sterling in nw NJ se NYS extreme sw CT.  I will still use this again and again, especially long range since its new to me.

This could be the way it is all winter (elevation dependent marginal thermal profiles), especially per Don below. 

Don said EC long range has us a warmer or very much warmer than normal winter, plus his NAO Sept stats guide us the same way.

So I suppose these next 3 weeks through Dec 14 will be our winter and we need to enjoy it.  My caveat... stats are good but are made of sample differences.  This winter might not behave according to the stats. I noticed the EC Long range tends to have a little 5H Troughing here in the ne USA this winter---cutting into the warm anomalies.  IMO, not all is lost after Dec 14... timing-timing-timing.

Also we need to realize that modeling beyond two weeks is limited and can be vastly in error.  You can step up and tell me you kinda knew in advance of the 13 week drought idea, or this current cooler wintry pattern .., all more than 3 weeks in advance. Modeling will improve considerably beyond 3 weeks to help us better plan (market products etc).  

I just hope some of this is of value to our group. 

Duly noted.  However, "wrap around precipitation" or "filling in on the back end"  rarely happens any more, even if models agree.  Much akin to short term high wind warnings; models don't seem good in mixing down the wind, probably due to surface friction.  Thanks for the insight.  I miss Jeff Beradelli's post storm reviews.  I think we can learn from write-ups like that, pointing out where the models went wrong, and what would have been the correct tools to focus on...

[cardinalland]

35 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Duly noted.  However, "wrap around precipitation" or "filling in on the back end"  rarely happens any more, even if models agree.  Much akin to short term high wind warnings; models don't seem good in mixing down the wind, probably due to surface friction.  Thanks for the insight.  I miss Jeff Beradelli's post storm reviews.  I think we can learn from write-ups like that, pointing out where the models went wrong, and what would have been the correct tools to focus on...

hmm my experience has been a little different... i feel like wrap around precipitation like this one has often panned out, but yep filling in on the back end (especially behind a frontal passage) is much rarer than models indicate

[Picard]

Snowing at a decent clip outside my window, but no accumulations.
I'm really tempted to do a High Point road trip after work.

[winterwx21]

Nasty out there today with the light rain and temps in the upper 30s, but I'm glad we got a good soaking. 

[wxman]

Light wet snow here.  No accumulation.  34.7

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Highest rain total for Suffolk County is 2.88” so far. It was pouring last night and radar estimated over 4” in NW Suffolk. Wonder if bright banding made it seem heavier? And yes, if it was 1/21 this would’ve been a widespread 24”+ snow event. 

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Highest rain total for Suffolk County is 2.88” so far. It was pouring last night and radar estimated over 4” in NW Suffolk. Wonder if bright banding made it seem heavier? And yes, if it was 1/21 this would’ve been a widespread 24”+ snow event. 

2.91" here for the current system.

Roughly 9" August 19-20 and nothing since.  Feast or famine.

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow has not stopped here all morning. It has not really accumulated since around 8 am. I ve measured numerous times but still 10.5". I don't use a snowboard to measure. I just stick my measuring dowel in it. Most likely because of unfrozen surfaces, compaction, marginal temp etc.. With all that said. In the last 45 minutes the snow has really picked up. Small flakes. If this keeps up into the early evening, more accumulation should occur. 32.3°

[MANDA]

Two day melted total here as of 8:00 a.m. = 2.50".  Nice.

Will add to that a bit tomorrow as it has been snowing lightly here all morning.  Not much additional accumulation since I measured this morning but did get an additional .20" so now up to 4.1".

 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Two day melted total here as of 8:00 a.m. = 2.50".  Nice.

Will add to that a bit tomorrow as it has been snowing lightly here all morning.  Not much additional accumulation since I measured this morning but did get an additional .20" so now up to 4.1".

 

Nice first snowfall. Where are u located?

[MANDA]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Nice first snowfall. Where are u located?

Mt. Arlington but perched on a higher elevation (1,050') near Berkshire Valley Wildlife Refuge.  Drive down the hill and towards Rt. 80 and amounts fall off real fast.

[sussexcountyobs]

10 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Mt. Arlington but perched on a higher elevation (1,050') near Berkshire Valley Wildlife Refuge.  Drive down the hill and towards Rt. 80 and amounts fall off real fast.

Wow. At that elevation, I would think you'd have at least 6-8". Maybe the heavier banding last night missed to your north. Plus you're probably 20 miles south of me. If this light snow keeps up once sun starts going down, I think we both can pick up another inch or 2.

[Allsnow]

Didn’t get out of the 30’s here today. Definitely a good drought buster the last two days. I’m over 2.00 for the event and still raining 

[jm1220]

For the next storm for Thanksgiving if we get it it looks to be cold rain for the coast or maybe R/S mix. A more amped system would mean more warm air brought in and track inland, less amped means less precip and marginal airmass. There’s maybe a very tiny Goldilocks zone near the city and coast for a workable storm but very likely not. Inland has a better opportunity with a more amped system. Hopefully in Dec the cold pattern can take hold, over the last 10 years we haven’t gotten out of a cold pattern like this without a widespread winter storm. It can definitely snow in early Dec to the coast in the right setup. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

For the next storm for Thanksgiving if we get it it looks to be cold rain for the coast or maybe R/S mix. A more amped system would mean more warm air brought in and track inland, less amped means less precip and marginal airmass. There’s maybe a very tiny Goldilocks zone near the city and coast for a workable storm but very likely not. Inland has a better opportunity with a more amped system. Hopefully in Dec the cold pattern can take hold, over the last 10 years we haven’t gotten out of a cold pattern like this without a widespread winter storm. It can definitely snow in early Dec to the coast in the right setup. 

I think a lot will depend on how strong the system for Tuesday is. But I do agree, the setup favors north of the area. The pattern for early December looks active for winter precipitation chances 

[Allsnow]

-epo just keeps reloading on the gefs and geps 

[steve392]

Nearly 2" of rain since it started.  Haven't seen any flakes in se Bergen County. 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Nearly 2" of rain since it started.  Haven't seen any flakes in se Bergen County. 

SE Bergen county is tough for snow. I know. As a kid I grew up in Little Ferry.

[North and West]

-epo just keeps reloading on the gefs and geps 

What does that imply?


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[Allsnow]

Just now, North and West said:

What does that imply?


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A very cold look sustaining itself for more then just a week to start December 

[mannynyc]

 

Timing is very fluid so it's hard to point to one frame but more than a few hits on the GEFS right now, even for coastal areas 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A very cold look sustaining itself for more then just a week to start December 

The GEFS is almost a -EPO/+PNA...really everything is which is why I question somewhat if heights on the W Coast or Rockies will be that high as in recent years any true +PNA has been rare.