November 2024

[dmillz25]

Getting snow here in Long Island city 

[NCPOW]

2” here in Ardsley. 

[snywx]

31 w/snow

4” otg

[the_other_guy]

Nice dusting on the ground last night and just around in a few spots this morning as I guess some rain washed it away afterwards.

 

very elevation dependent: if you’re on top of a hill, you still have snow on the ground if you’re down by the river, no snow at all

 

Good sign for the winter ahead. Nice way to start.

 

For all you naysayers out there, you never write off snow from the third week of November onward. haha

[JustinRP37]

So happy to see snow this morning! Next week looks great for snow making! Could this be the first winter in quite some time the ski areas are mostly open by Christmas? Time will tell but I know my son is beyond excited for skiing! 

[the_other_guy]

our ski areas have been opened on Christmas. It just hasn’t been a great xmas week for years.

 

We’ve had some good Decembers, but the last week of December has been brutal for skiing for a while around here.

 

Something about that mega warm-up at the start of winter it’s almost like you could set your clock by it

[Allsnow]

12 in Highland lakes NJ 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

We need a little more rain by the end of the month in order to avoid the driest fall on record.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	2.84	9
2	1965	3.31	0
3	2001	4.02	0
4	2013	4.86	0
5	1973	5.38	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	3.34	9
2	1908	4.00	0
3	1909	4.67	0
4	1881	4.93	0
5	1931	4.97	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	2.51	9
2	1931	4.21	0
3	1964	4.93	0
4	2013	5.02	0
5	1941	5.04	0

[JustinRP37]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

our ski areas have been opened on Christmas. It just hasn’t been a great xmas week for years.

 

We’ve had some good Decembers, but the last week of December has been brutal for skiing for a while around here.

 

Something about that mega warm-up at the start of winter it’s almost like you could set your clock by it

Yeah they have been “open” but I mean could this be the year at least 75% of the terrain is open for the holidays! That hasn’t happened in a long time and they miss out on a good chunk of money. Fingers crossed!

I’m sure we will torch right on Christmas though, but maybe they will have a decent base ready by then.

[wxman]

First scattered flakes of the season in my backyard.  34.7

[MJO812]

All rain

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

Still stuck at 38. Probably have to wait til to tonight for any flakes. Will be in somerville later so tempted to drive up 206 to Morris County to see some snow but not sure if there will be any this afternoon

[forkyfork]

snow mixing in here

[psv88]

In Toronto for Taylor swift…no snow up here!

[ForestHillWx]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still stuck at 38. Probably have to wait til to tonight for any flakes. Will be in somerville later so tempted to drive up 206 to Morris County to see some snow but not sure if there will be any this afternoon

I have trees and most of the lawn covered; drive a mile more up 206 into Chester Borough and it’s all covered.

Pretty interesting elevation difference. 

[North and West]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

In Toronto for Taylor swift…no snow up here!

Eh, Shake It Off. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I have trees and most of the lawn covered; drive a mile more up 206 into Chester Borough and it’s all covered.

Pretty interesting elevation difference. 

Ok. That's probably where I was going to go. Don't have enough time to go too far north

[snywx]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

I have trees and most of the lawn covered; drive a mile more up 206 into Chester Borough and it’s all covered.

Pretty interesting elevation difference. 

I live at 850’ with 4-5” of extremely wet snow. Down at 500’ it’s around 2”, drive up to 1200’ and there is about 10-12” all in a 5 mile radius 

[Picard]

So, 3" at home in Sparta, elevation 800 feet.
Here at work, in Hampton, outskirts of Newton, elevation 570 feet, mostly 0.0".  There's a few patches with a coating of slush, but 95% of the ground is bare.  It's currently snowing, but not accumulating.
 

[FPizz]

Just saw a few flakes mixing in here.  

 

[lee59]

41 here wind gusting to 33mph. 1.96 total rain so far.

[sussexcountyobs]

32.0° with light snow falling. Measured 10.5"

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

12 in Highland lakes NJ 

 

 

 

Best November snowfall in those areas since 2018 and 2014.
 

Monthly Data for November 2018 for Sussex County, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

ANDOVER TWP 1.7 W	CoCoRaHS	8.5
CANISTEAR RESERVOIR	COOP	0.0
FRANKLIN 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.0
HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	7.6
HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	10.9
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	8.5
STILLWATER TWP 1.0 WSW	CoCoRaHS	T
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	9.0
VERNON TWP 1.7 N	CoCoRaHS	8.8
WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.0

 

Monthly Data for November 2014 for Sussex County, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

ANDOVER TWP 1.7 W	CoCoRaHS	6.5
CANISTEAR RESERVOIR	COOP	0.0
HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.5
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	8.9
SPARTA TWP 4.0 SW	CoCoRaHS	7.6
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	6.7
VERNON TWP 1.7 N	CoCoRaHS	10.5
WANTAGE TWP 1.5 SE	CoCoRaHS	5.4

[MJO812]

[Dark Star]

Like clockwork, just as the snow shield was approaching northeast NJ, the sun came out...

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is pure elevation storm. 10.5" here so far @1200'. Was just down on rt. 23 in Franklin there's like 4-5". Power still out on 23 in Stockholm by Skylands Ice arena.

[MANDA]

Light snow and a gusty wind ongoing.  Total measurement at 8am was 3.9".  Very elevation dependent.  Next to nothing down the hill less than 1-2 miles from here.  I would have had a higher total but the heaviest band shifted north for a while overnight.

I knew their would be surprises up in Sussex County.  This was a highly dynamic and anomalous situation surface and aloft.  Upper lows like this often deliver the goods for someone.  Catskills were a given although even there more than I would have thought.  Sussex County high ground was ripe for a surprise.

 

Edit:  Wow at that High Point OB!

[MANDA]

How about the light rain, fog and mist obs. with temperatures in the low 40's from Buffalo up through Watertown !

Not everyday you see that while parts of our area are snowing.

[wdrag]

I try to incorporate all views, media (they tend to be slow to respond-that's their editors imo and they seem more concerned about a general story) and also herein. 

I heard some discouraging comments way back about this event... one of them the NW flow downslope killing it.  Don't think it worked.  Dynamics and steep moist lapse rates within a deep anomalous closed low aloft overcame the perceived downslope effect. 

The other about OKX and nothing within 35 mi of NYC.  I as a forecaster tend to be a little more liberal permitting options that others are more conservative on--- NWS has to be tight one message and COLLABORATIVE conservative so as not to juice the media-us. Therefore they might run a slower, whereas we can dynamically respond faster...not tied to collaboration, and of course we're not official. 

I prefer less absolutes on this forum... too much we don't really know.

Modeling as I used it.. in essence the 12K NAM was not very good... it's 3K descendent much better as well as the HRRR and then the three big globals (GFS/EC/GGEM).  NBM was not very good--- sorry---it just wasn't, nor the statistical probs of 1" snow etc... those need to be upgraded for elevations. The probabilistic (P-WSSI) driven by model inputs was OK... but not sterling in nw NJ se NYS extreme sw CT.  I will still use this again and again, especially long range since its new to me.

This could be the way it is all winter (elevation dependent marginal thermal profiles), especially per Don below. 

Don said EC long range has us a warmer or very much warmer than normal winter, plus his NAO Sept stats guide us the same way.

So I suppose these next 3 weeks through Dec 14 will be our winter and we need to enjoy it.  My caveat... stats are good but are made of sample differences.  This winter might not behave according to the stats. I noticed the EC Long range tends to have a little 5H Troughing here in the ne USA this winter---cutting into the warm anomalies.  IMO, not all is lost after Dec 14... timing-timing-timing.

Also we need to realize that modeling beyond two weeks is limited and can be vastly in error.  You can step up and tell me you kinda knew in advance of the 13 week drought idea, or this current cooler wintry pattern .., all more than 3 weeks in advance. Modeling will improve considerably beyond 3 weeks to help us better plan (market products etc).  

I just hope some of this is of value to our group.