November 2024

[Allsnow]

Over an inch now of rain which is my biggest rain event since July. Radar says their is more to come 

[eduggs]

Per radar reflectivity, it looks like snow is mixing in elevated Sussex and Warren and should be increasing over the next few hours.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Mt Pocono down to 32 with this more intense snow coming in. Should be a fun night there. 

Already at 530PM 1" of wet snow on the ground... and a little less on driveway at Mt Cobb, Exit 8 on I84. about 2000' elevation (Jefferson Township PA).  Models are too slow in the higher elevations for snow depth CHANGE, which is what I use as a base.  

HRRR 3K NAM look good but am a little cautious because 12z  EC nwas ot as robust as I'd like to see.---too much mixed snow sleet rain overnight in nw NJ. Temp here in Wantage at 537PM down to 37.4.  

[MJO812]

Maybe some flakes down here tomorrow.  That would be a treat. 

[Allsnow]

 

[forkyfork]

it looks like most of the metro will avoid the dry slot through the night

[MJO812]

Heavy rain here 

47

[Allsnow]

Down to 39 

[Roger Smith]

Record long extended dry spell ends at 52 days Sep 30 to Nov 20 (0.19"). 

[MANDA]

34.5 and wet flakes mixing in with the rain.

[MANDA]

Now 34 degrees.  Short video.

 

 

[MANDA]

32.9

[MANDA]

Deck getting coated.  

[donsutherland1]

Discussion

New York City has seen its biggest rainfall since August 18th when 2.29" fell. Periods of rain will continue overnight and through much of tomorrow.

The rain will likely end as a period of wet snow or flurries on Friday morning in the distant northern and western suburbs, especially hilly sections where some accumulations are possible. A heavy wet snowfall is likely in the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos.

The departing storm will likely be followed by a period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures. A stronger shot of cold could arrive to end the month or start December. The first week of December will likely feature generally below normal temperatures.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased.

The SOI was +14.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.097 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

1.20 

mod rain 

[wdrag]

Saw a PHI FB report from near 1500' vicinity High Point NJ..snowing there. 

 

[Northwest NJ]

37 Degrees in Hardyston Township, Sussex County, NJ.  Still just plain rain at 600' elevation

[Picard]

29 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Deck getting coated.  

 

You're 250 feet higher than me - could be an interesting event for both of us.  I'm still at work, near Newton, with a cold, cold rain.  Elevation here is 570 feet.  I'll report back when I get home later.

[jdt]

Snowing at 900’ elevation in Sparta. Light coating on elevated surfaces.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

All snow falling here at 1200'. 34°

[Stormlover74]

39 with moderate rain. Over 1.5" on the day now

[wdrag]

Mt Pocono 1N report of 1.3" on the ground at 7P per PHI FB and their posted storm report. 

[wdrag]

Morris County NJ.. several reports of snow or snow mixed w rain. 

[forkyfork]

from my sister in stanhope 

[Stormlover74]

WWA end at 10am but euro keeps precip going all day until at least early evening. Would think that's mostly snow for those areas perhaps mixing back with rain in the afternoon? 

[jdt]

All but paved surfaces now a solid measurable coating. Sparta 900’ elevation.


.

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

39 with moderate rain. Over 1.5" on the day now

Hopefully we get this band a month from now 

[jm1220]

New HRRR has snow on the N Shore, SW CT and Westchester. Here I doubt anything would accumulate but it’s a dynamic enough setup that there could be a burst at some point. 

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

New HRRR has snow on the N Shore, SW CT and Westchester. Here I doubt anything would accumulate but it’s a dynamic enough setup that there could be a burst at some point. 

We'll take our mood flakes on the N Shore should it occur.

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow falling.  Starting to stick on paved driveway. 32.7°