November 2024

[vegan_edible]

18z GFS sponsored by oscar meyer

[Snowlover11]

GFS

 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS

 

Yeah, the same model that 24 hours ago had me getting 14-18" of snow in the next 24-36 hours. 

GFS is a follower....not a leader.

Even the leaders of years past are not doing well past 3-5 days lately.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yeah, the same model that 24 hours ago had me getting 14-18" of snow in the next 24-36 hours. 

GFS is a follower....not a leader.

Even the leaders of years past are not doing well past 3-5 days lately.

Euro is similiar 

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS

 

Holy shit.

[cleetussnow]

[hudsonvalley21]

47 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS

 

 

[wdrag]

Last 3 hours max wind gusts with the lines of showers and thunderstorms moving east through NYS/PA/VA.

 

KDKK: Dunkirk, Chautauqua County, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s]

KPIT: Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Intl Arpt, PA, United States [50kt, 26m/s]

KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [51kt, 26m/s]

[North and West]

Holy shit.

.

[psv88]

63 today 

[cleetussnow]

13 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

Synoptically speaking, why 

[North and West]

Synoptically speaking, why 

Oh, I have zero clue. Just doesn’t seem to work out at this stage in the game.


.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Waiting for the wdrag Black Friday snow thread 

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Waiting for the wdrag Black Friday snow thread 

 

 

As of the 18z run, it’s just under 200 hours out. Subject to change as usual.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

As of the 18z run, it’s just under 200 hours out. Subject to change as usual.

 

Thanksgiving snow has happened here in the past and it can happen again. Had a big one in the 70s and one in the 80s

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thanksgiving snow has happened here in the past and it can happen again. Had a big one in the 70s and one in the 80s

Definitely possible. Up this way we had snow around Halloween a few years ago. Huge change from 7 days ago. Great help for the brush fires and the reservoirs.

[wishcast_hater]

Thanksgiving snow has happened here in the past and it can happen again. Had a big one in the 70s and one in the 80s

I Remember snow on Thanksgiving Day in the Bronx back in the 80’s. It was gone by the afternoon.


.

[LAVistaNY]

13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thanksgiving snow has happened here in the past and it can happen again. Had a big one in the 70s and one in the 80s

My kids had fun!

[mannynyc]

Can't deny the signal. But I wouldn't put money on snow especially in the City and LI.

[donsutherland1]

A soaking rain will arrive overnight. The rain will likely continue into Friday morning with the heaviest rainfall occurring overnight into tomorrow morning. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts is likely. The rain will likely as a period of wet snow or flurries on Friday morning in the distant northern and western suburbs, especially hilly sections where some accumulations are possible.

That rain will likely be followed by a period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures. A stronger shot of cold could arrive to end the month or start December. The first week of December could feature generally below normal temperatures.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased.

The SOI was +16.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.706 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

 

[Picard]

Winter Storm Watches all the way down into Pike County, PA.  Shoot, that's not far.
News 12 going with a slushy 0.5" up this way.

[Stormlover74]

Radar's looking good. Hrrr jackpots Monmouth and ocean now though at least initially 

[donsutherland1]

The 1z NBE shows 1.1" snow for New York City on Friday with a daily minimum temperature of 38°. If that winds up being the low, the odds are very strongly against measurable snowfall, even if some snow mixes with the rain. Below is the historic data:

[SACRUS]

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thanksgiving snow has happened here in the past and it can happen again. Had a big one in the 70s and one in the 80s

thanksgiving is very late this year. There’s no reason why from the last week of November onward it cant snow here. It’s not even unusual.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

I Remember snow on Thanksgiving Day in the Bronx back in the 80’s. It was gone by the afternoon.


.

it wasn’t gone in Queens by the afternoon. I distinctly remember going home that night with snow on the ground. Late 80s

 

But more recently, we had snow in the nearby Northwest suburbs on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and I was at the parade with full snow falling and not sticking.

[RU848789]

For Thanksgiving snow, our region hasn’t had much, but in 1989 4.4" fell in NYC, 6.0" fell in Newark and 4.6 fell in Philly from Weds night into T-giving.  Before that one has to go back to 1938 for snow in NYC on Thanksgiving, when 3.9” fell.  On average we get November snowfall once every 3 years, with the last major one being 11/15/2018, when 4-7” fell across most of the Philly-NJ-NYC corridor and NW of there (less towards the coast) - that was the storm that shut down much of the region as the snowfall was significantly underestimated by almost everyone, despite the Euro/NAM (EE rule, lol) being bullish on snow for the 95 corridor.  Loved that storm, as I got out of work in Rahway by 2 pm, as I knew things were getting bad, and it only took me 30 min to get home (10 miles), while people who left an hour later took hours to get anywhere.  

https://en.as.com/latest_news/will-it-snow-in-new-york-on-thanksgiving-when-was-the-last-time-it-snowed-in-november-n/

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

For Thanksgiving snow, our region hasn’t had much, but in 1989 4.4" fell in NYC, 6.0" fell in Newark and 4.6 fell in Philly from Weds night into T-giving.  Before that one has to go back to 1938 for snow in NYC on Thanksgiving, when 3.9” fell.  On average we get November snowfall once every 3 years, with the last major one being 11/15/2018, when 4-7” fell across most of the Philly-NJ-NYC corridor and NW of there (less towards the coast) - that was the storm that shut down much of the region as the snowfall was significantly underestimated by almost everyone, despite the Euro/NAM (EE rule, lol) being bullish on snow for the 95 corridor.  Loved that storm, as I got out of work in Rahway by 2 pm, as I knew things were getting bad, and it only took me 30 min to get home (10 miles), while people who left an hour later took hours to get anywhere.  

https://en.as.com/latest_news/will-it-snow-in-new-york-on-thanksgiving-when-was-the-last-time-it-snowed-in-november-n/

The Thanksgiving Snowstorm in ‘89 was preceded by a powerful cold front on the Tuesday prior.  This front was accompanied by widespread violent severe thunderstorms across Long Island and other parts of the region with many reports of damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, mannynyc said:

Can't deny the signal. But I wouldn't put money on snow especially in the City and LI.

Might be too early but having a strong negative epo might be a great thing for us. Exciting week ahead to track.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Might be too early but having a strong negative epo might be a great thing for us. Exciting week ahead to track.

Gfs has a few inches on Thanksgiving now