November 2024

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The NAM is probably still adjusting. Although sometimes when it's on its own, it's right. But presumably that comes more in line with the GFS, ECM, and CMC. If so, the snow accumulation averages are going to increase in places like Sussex, NJ.

 

The nam has been oddly dry with the backside of the system where the other models keep precip going all day Thursday and part of Friday. It does have the snow now later on in the day and it's at the end of its range so who knows

[forkyfork]

it hasn't been upgraded since 2017

[SnowGoose69]

HRRR/NAM both don't show nearly the QPF into NE NJ/NYC which is likely the higher res models seeing the downslope impact IMO.  I have been suspect given the WSW flow that we'd see that much moisture south of the low

[winterwx21]

12z runs of HRRR, NAM 3km and RGEM still giving our area close to 2 inches of rain. I'm excited that a good soaking is finally coming. Will be nice to see some snowflakes in the air as well, even though we won't see any accumulation here. 

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HRRR/NAM both don't show nearly the QPF into NE NJ/NYC which is likely the higher res models seeing the downslope impact IMO.  I have been suspect given the WSW flow that we'd see that much moisture south of the low

Could be. But the NAM has also been shifting every run for 2 days. Other models - EC, CMC, GFS... even ICON have been steady.

Usually when the NAM is in the consensus and then suddenly diverges, then it's sometimes onto something. In this case I think it isn't properly reflecting the anomalous synoptics. But we will probably know by 12z or 18z. A few days ago I would have guessed the NAM evolution of shifting things north and then northwest of the area was likely correct. But all other guidance disagrees. I agree about downsloping and would definitely favor the NW side of any terrain.

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HRRR/NAM both don't show nearly the QPF into NE NJ/NYC which is likely the higher res models seeing the downslope impact IMO.  I have been suspect given the WSW flow that we'd see that much moisture south of the low

After the main slug of rain overnight here I’d just expect unsettled showers around NYC, some of that hopefully will be snow showers. Agreed about the NW downslope killing off a lot of the deformation axis precip. Tomorrow will be a nasty raw day. 

[Stormlover74]

53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z runs of HRRR, NAM 3km and RGEM still giving our area close to 2 inches of rain. I'm excited that a good soaking is finally coming. Will be nice to see some snowflakes in the air as well, even though we won't see any accumulation here. 

Yeah either way we get a good soaking overnight. It's during the day and Friday that seem to be up in the air. I could see it being mostly showery stuff with a few tenths added to what we have by tomorrow morning. That's what the gfs has now. Cmc rgem euro remain the wettest

[Picard]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

What a beautiful day!  Heavy overcast, chilly temperatures, light breeze and a soaking rain with wind on the way.  Been waiting months for a day(s) like this! 

Any snow will be a bonus.  I think I do better at my location than what Mt. Holly is going with at the moment.

 

 

It could be pretty variable around here.  I'm at exactly 800 feet not too far from downtown Sparta, which is even lower.  Places just up the mountain from us are 1300'+  I remember one maybe three years back, where I had zero, and places up the hill had 4".  

[Superstorm93]

Less elongated trend and less PVA into the LHV/NNJ on virtually all of the 12z runs. We'll see if this is just a temporary nudge 

[vegan_edible]

gfs with a nor'easter within 240 hours. now thats what i call comedy 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs with a nor'easter within 240 hours. now thats what i call comedy 

Comedy ? The pattern supports a storm.

[vegan_edible]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Comedy ? The pattern supports a storm.

believe me i want it to happen as bad as anyone, but if that gets within 120hrs ill get stoked. especially day after thanksgiving, that'd be incredible

[RU848789]

21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs with a nor'easter within 240 hours. now thats what i call comedy 

Nada on the CMC, but it's 10 days out...

[RU848789]

The most interesting observation from the 12Z suite, so far, is that the GFS put the crack pipe down on the insane NNJ/nearby NEPA snowfall amounts and is much more in line with the other models. Will be happy to see mood flakes in the Edison area and would be ecstatic with a little coating from a heavier burst or two.

[brooklynwx99]

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

[cleetussnow]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

Looking decent.  We want Alaska to be nice and toasty.  Bodes well.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 61 / 42 here.  Wetter 36 - 48 hours  looking good for 1 - 3 inches of rain.   Drier and colder the next week.

 

[Allsnow]

[Franklin0529]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gonna rain all day tommorow you think? 

[Brian5671]

Wet run through day 10 with 3-5 inches across much of the Northeast.

[MANDA]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Wet run through day 10 with 3-5 inches across much of the Northeast.

Looks like we are entering a wetter pattern and the persistent dryness will yield to a pattern with more frequent precipitation!

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wet run through day 10 with 3-5 inches across much of the Northeast.

Fantasy snowstorm to end the run lol 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gonna rain all day tommorow you think? 

Steady rain will be over by morning. But it will be raw with drizzle all day

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs with a nor'easter within 240 hours. now thats what i call comedy 

Euro also

Big snowstorm

[Snowlover11]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also

Big snowstorm

triple bun

[eduggs]

Pretty much all guidance shifted towards more of a SLP loop-de-loop scenario as opposed to more of a stall. NAM and ICON had been leaning in this direction with CMC on the other end. IF this is correct, accumulating snow looks confined primarily to NEPA and higher elevations of Catskills. 18z and 0z will help determine is this change is homing on the eventual outcome or just a blip. Ultimately it's probably a nowcast, but considering the pinwheeling packets or vorticity, I think it's probably real.

Best chance for flakes outside of hill towns would then probably be Fri or Fri night under the ULL with low thicknesses and steep lapse rates.

[mannynyc]

Decent look near Thanksgiving

[Nibor]

4 hours ago, eduggs said:

Most model sounding profiles look pretty cold Thurs night into Friday. If the thermals are right, that could be accumulating snow down to maybe 800ft or so in spots. Yes for big snows I'd want to be in NE PA, preferably above 1500ft.

Yeah I think I was a bit over zealous saying over 2k feet. Elevation will play a roll for sure. 

[wdrag]

I dont have much urge to start a thread for heavy rains most of our NYC subforum, then ends as a rain/drzl/barely noticeable wet snow mix.  Could be more gusty than anticipated Th-Fri and I see some modeling is spotty 50-60 MPH just of LI to Cape May-Delmarva.   Isolated 3-4" melted qpf tristate corner of pa/nys/nj. 

 

Still concerned about upper low redeveloping s of LI which might mean a little more action than modeled for Fri night.  

12z/20 HREF looks a little cold.  

A n-s axis just east of AVP might be heavy damage. 12z/20 attached WSSI-P is the probability, in this case for MAJOR damage.  This n/s axis has been cyclically repeating as the area to monitor for big wet snowfall and imo, heavy damage-power outages.  Gusts to 30-35 MPH expected parts of that areas as well. Caution: It's where I monitor but the prob for major is below 40%.

WSSI-P is something new for me this year so can't assign confidence regarding its value added.

 

and now with the attachment WSSI-P.  

 

[Superstorm93]

Should be another triple bun event on the 18z GFS here