November 2024

[donsutherland1]

It will mild tomorrow with temperatures topping out mainly in the middle and upper 50s. The dry weather will continue through most of tomorrow.

Rain is likely late tomorrow night into Friday morning. Models have grown wetter in recent cycles. A storm total of 1.00"-2.00" is likely with a few locally higher amounts. There is a chance that distant northern and western suburbs, especially hilly sections, could see the rain end as a period of wet snow or flurries. That rain will likely be followed by a period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased.

The SOI was +15.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.178 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

 

[cardinalland]

Does anyone know of a source of data for EPO forecasts that's updated daily? I can't believe it but I can't find anything for it on the web!

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 64
New Brnswck: 63
TEB: 62
LGA: 62
JFK: 61
BLM: 61
TTN: 61
ACY: 61
ISP: 60
PHL: 60
NYC: 60

[SACRUS]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, cardinalland said:

Does anyone know of a source of data for EPO forecasts that's updated daily? I can't believe it but I can't find anything for it on the web!

 I’m not aware of any that are free.

 I can tell you that 11/17’s +233 (the latest daily available), which was the highest daily since way back on June 4, will probably end up being the highest for quite awhile. Models are unanimous in dropping it very sharply to at or near the lowest daily of 2024 on 11/21 or 11/22 (~-250)! The consensus then has it remaining negative the rest of Nov fwiw. When combining the low point and duration of this upcoming -EPO, it could end up the most impressive since way back in Oct of 2023!

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[Tatamy]

0z GFS is all in with the potential for significant snows across NW NJ and NE PA.

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

0z GFS is all in with the potential for significant snows across NW NJ and NE PA.

The difference between the 0Z NAM and the 0Z GFS is astonishing, especially for NNJ/NEPA.  I have a very hard time believing in the GFS here.  

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

The difference between the 0Z NAM and the 0Z GFS is astonishing, especially for NNJ/NEPA.  I have a very hard time believing in the GFS here.  

It’s an outlier solution.

[Nibor]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

The difference between the 0Z NAM and the 0Z GFS is astonishing, especially for NNJ/NEPA.  I have a very hard time believing in the GFS here.  

It's November, I'd use the positive snow depth change over 10-1. Even still I have a hard time seeing northern NJ seeing those pinks and purples. Actual snowfall accumulation is gonna be above 2k feet. Some early season flakes are definitely not out of the question though.

[wdrag]

Do we want a thread for this storm.  It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night.  This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday.  Your call. 

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Do we want a thread for this storm.  It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night.  This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday.  Your call. 

You’re the thread starter, all up to you

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

You’re the thread starter, all up to you

The heavy qpf and wet snow is primarily Pocs and Cats, into nw NJ.  Not really the bulk of the NYC metro.  That's why I've held off. So---I dont want to over focus NYC metro on what will be mainly a rain event. 

 

 An extreme storm was occurring overnight near Washington State.

 

I tend to find extremes occur close to each other.  Remember the Oxford Flood of Aug 18, then the 11 week drought Sept-now,  and now multi modeling is offering spot 4" 48 hr qpf nw NJ/Pocs/Cats Tri state corner. From one extreme to another. 

[hudsonvalley21]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Do we want a thread for this storm.  It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night.  This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday.  Your call. 

Sure Walt, start a thread.  Concerned about flooding, runoff with the hard ground an a good amount of QPF in a short time.

[Tatamy]

Walt - please start the thread.  This storm could be quite impactful.

[WIN]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The heavy qpf and wet snow is primarily Pocs and Cats, into nw NJ.  Not really the bulk of the NYC metro.  That's why I've held off. So---I dont want to over focus NYC metro on what will be mainly a rain event. 

 

 An extreme storm was occurring overnight near Washington State.

 

I tend to find extremes occur close to each other.  Remember the Oxford Flood of Aug 18, then the 11 week drought Sept-now,  and now multi modeling is offering spot 4" 48 hr qpf nw NJ/Pocs/Cats Tri state corner. From one extreme to another. 

Go for it. The parameters you're laying out are clear. 

[snowman19]

47 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Do we want a thread for this storm.  It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night.  This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday.  Your call. 

Agree. The maps spreading all over twitter right now showing accumulating snow into NYC are completely laughable. People don’t know how to look at soundings, only the pretty 10:1 ratio snow maps. NWS Upton is not expecting any accumulating snow whatsoever within 35 miles northwest of NYC

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. The maps spreading all over twitter right now showing accumulating snow into NYC are completely laughable. People don’t know how to look at soundings, only the pretty 10:1 ratio snow maps. NWS Upton is not expecting any accumulating snow whatsoever within 35 miles northwest of NYC

I’d be thrilled if there is a burst of flurries/light snow at the end here or during heavier showers under the ULL. Looks very dynamic so it could happen, but if you’re expecting significant accums and living in a valley you’ll likely be disappointed. Over 1000’ though will probably get over 6” and locally 10”. That deformation band SW of the low center will go to town for a while. Best potential area looks to be around Mt Pocono. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

The heavy qpf and wet snow is primarily Pocs and Cats, into nw NJ.  Not really the bulk of the NYC metro.  That's why I've held off. So---I dont want to over focus NYC metro on what will be mainly a rain event. 

 

 An extreme storm was occurring overnight near Washington State.

 

I tend to find extremes occur close to each other.  Remember the Oxford Flood of Aug 18, then the 11 week drought Sept-now,  and now multi modeling is offering spot 4" 48 hr qpf nw NJ/Pocs/Cats Tri state corner. From one extreme to another. 

Holding off tiI.I get back home at 5PM and reevaluate...   that will give modeling time to calm down.  Power imo is a big problem ton consider ne PA/maybe nw NJ. No action for me... most of NYC forum a rain storm gusty winds 35-45 MPH (iso G 50) with tail end wet snow mix. 

[Allsnow]

54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d be thrilled if there is a burst of flurries/light snow at the end here or during heavier showers under the ULL. Looks very dynamic so it could happen, but if you’re expecting significant accums and living in a valley you’ll likely be disappointed. Over 1000’ though will probably get over 6” and locally 10”. That deformation band SW of the low center will go to town for a while. Best potential area looks to be around Mt Pocono. 

Yup, we all should see our first flakes on Friday. It will feel like Novembers of old for a day or two 

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, Nibor said:

It's November, I'd use the positive snow depth change over 10-1. Even still I have a hard time seeing northern NJ seeing those pinks and purples. Actual snowfall accumulation is gonna be above 2k feet. Some early season flakes are definitely not out of the question though.

Oh, if we only had legalized weather betting...

[RU848789]

I'd say a thread would be good.  At ~4 am, the NWS put out a more bullish snowfall map, much more in line with the NBM map and they also updated their rainfall map, which is also a bit more bullish (I also love when they include large parts of the NWS-NYC CWA in their maps). Still room for changes, especially on the snowfall side of things, as the NWS-Philly mentioned in their discussion with regard to more snow possible for the Lehigh Valley and NWNJ and even a bit of measurable snow down to the 95 corridor; see the part I bolded below in the NWS-Philly discussion. 

Folks need to remember that even wet snow with borderline surface temps can accumulate quickly if the snowfall rate is fairly heavy, exceeding the melting rate and with much of the possible snow falling before sunrise on Friday, there won't be a solar insolation component to melting.  On the flip side an extended period of light to moderate snow even at night with surface temps above 32F will largely result in white rain with minimal accumulations (and this is especially true if during the day).

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
656 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure will be located near New York City Thursday
evening, with strong and gusty northwest winds funneling cooler
air southeastward across the region. The upper low will remain
to our west in the upper Ohio Valley, and as that feature heads
east, the surface low will actually retrograde slightly, with it
becoming "captured" over our northern areas early Friday.
Strong forcing over our northern zones relatively close to the
surface low and northeast of the upper low will result in
continued precipitation through the night, with precipitation
tapering off further south and mostly dry conditions in the
Delmarva. With the cold advection at the surface and aloft, odds
favor a transition to heavy wet snow across the higher terrain,
especially above 1500 feet on the Pocono Plateau and possibly a
few higher ridges elsewhere in eastern PA and northern NJ. With
the best odds of heavy wet snow being across the Poconos, have
issued the first Winter Storm Watch of the season for Carbon and
Monroe counties, specifically for at and above 1500 feet. Lower
elevations may see far less snowfall, in fact the lowest
valleys even up there may fail to get an entire inch of
accumulation with this elevation-dependent system. As this will
be a heavy wet snow with significant wind in the 20-30 mph
range, a big potential is downed trees and power lines. Travel
Thursday night in particular is discouraged.

There are a few simulations which imply snow could reach
significantly further south across our region, even down to the
I-95 corridor and Philly metro, particularly the Canadian
models. For the moment we`ve mostly discounted that guidance as
being outliers, but will be keeping it in mind as we watch
further progress with this system. Have allowed for some mixing
across areas just north and west of the I-95 corridor Thursday
night into early Friday, but little to no accumulation is
currently expected outside the Poconos. Either way, brisk and
cold will be the them for Thursday night, with lows in the 30s
for most, upper 20s perhaps in the higher terrain of the
Poconos.

For the bulk of Friday, the surface low will remain captured
under the upper low over our region, resulting in continued
showers. Enough insolation likely develops to allow a transition
from a rain/snow mix to just plain rain at the lower elevations,
with significantly less accumulation in the higher terrain as
well, with precipitation starting to taper off towards the end
of the day as we start to see some movement eastward and the
surface low begins to slowly fill. Regardless, a chilly, raw
day will be had by most with temps generally no higher than the
40s region-wide, with temps not straying far from freezing in
the Poconos.

[MANDA]

What a beautiful day!  Heavy overcast, chilly temperatures, light breeze and a soaking rain with wind on the way.  Been waiting months for a day(s) like this! 

Any snow will be a bonus.  I think I do better at my location than what Mt. Holly is going with at the moment.

 

 

[nycwinter]

been a long time since i did not see the sun in nyc  ,lol

[Snowlover11]

This rain has me excited like if we where receiving a full blown blizzard

These wildfires have had me nervous the past week and change.

[CentralNJSnowman]

47 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Oh, if we only had legalized weather betting...

Check out Kalshi.com or the Kalshi app

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

This rain has me excited like if we where receiving a full blown blizzard

These wildfires have had me nervous the past week and change.

I've never tracked a rainstorm so closely. It does feel like a blizzard is coming and I'm waiting for the nam to show me flipping to sleet

[weathermedic]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

NYZ057-062-201630-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0021.241121T2100Z-241123T0600Z/
Delaware-Sullivan-
Including the cities of Monticello, Walton, and Delhi
321 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 7 inches in
  the higher elevations.

* WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions in the higher
  elevations. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday
  evening and Friday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snowfall accumulations will be in
  the higher elevations where 4 to 7 inches of snowfall can be
  expected. In the valleys, snowfall accumulations will be much
  lower.

[eduggs]

6 hours ago, Nibor said:

Actual snowfall accumulation is gonna be above 2k feet. Some early season flakes are definitely not out of the question though.

Most model sounding profiles look pretty cold Thurs night into Friday. If the thermals are right, that could be accumulating snow down to maybe 800ft or so in spots. Yes for big snows I'd want to be in NE PA, preferably above 1500ft.

[eduggs]

The NAM is probably still adjusting. Although sometimes when it's on its own, it's right. But presumably that comes more in line with the GFS, ECM, and CMC. If so, the snow accumulation averages are going to increase in places like Sussex, NJ.

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The NAM is probably still adjusting. Although sometimes when it's on its own, it's right. But presumably that comes more in line with the GFS, ECM, and CMC. If so, the snow accumulation averages are going to increase in places like Sussex, NJ.

 

The nam has been oddly dry with the backside of the system where the other models keep precip going all day Thursday and part of Friday. It does have the snow now later on in the day and it's at the end of its range so who knows