SACRUS Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1957) NYC: 72 (1921) LGA: 70 (1953) JFK: 64 (1994) Lows: EWR: 19 (1936) NYC: 18 (1936) LGA: 22 (2014) JFK: 23 (2014) Historical: 1921 - The Columbia Gorge ice storm finally came to an end. In Oregon, 54 inches of snow, sleet and glaze blocked the Columbia River Highway at the Dalles. Apart from traffic on the river itself, all transportation between Walla Walla WA and Portland OR came to a halt. Nine trains were stopped as railroads were blocked for several days. (David Ludlum) 1930: A rare, estimated F4 tornado struck the town of Bethany, Oklahoma. Between 9:30 am and 9:58 am CST, it moved north-northeast from 3 miles west of the Oklahoma City limits, and hit the eastern part of Bethany. About 110 homes and 700 other buildings, or about a fourth of the town, were damaged or destroyed. Near the end of the damage path, 3.5 miles northeast of Wiley Post Airfield, the tornado hit the Camel Creek School. Buildings blew apart just as the students were falling to the floor and looking for shelter, and five students and a teacher were killed. A total of 23 people were killed and another 150 injured, with 77 being seriously injured. Damage estimates were listed at $500,000. 1957 - Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1981 - An unusually early snowstorm struck the Twin Cities of Minnesota, with as much as a foot of snow reported. The weight of the heavy snow caused the newly inflated fabric dome of the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis to collapse and rip. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A sharp cold front pushed across the Great Lakes Region and the Mississippi Valley. Northwest winds gusting to 50 mph in Iowa caused some property damage around Ottumwa, and wind chill readings reached 16 degrees below zero at Hibbing MN. Showers and thunder- storms over Florida produced 5.80 inches of rain in six hours at Cocoa Beach. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong thunderstorms developed during the mid morning hours and produced severe weather across eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the wee hours of the night. Thunderstorms spawned twenty-one tornadoes, including thirteen in Mississippi. One tornado killed two persons and injured eleven others at Nettleton MS, and another tornado injured eight persons at Tuscaloosa AL. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail in east Texas and northern Louisiana, and Summit MS was deluged with six inches of rain in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Gale force winds continued to produce squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region early in the day. Snowfall totals in western New York State reached 24 inches in southern Lewis County, with 21 inches reported at Highmarket. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Northern and Central Plains Region. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Denver CO with a reading of 79 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2003 - Flooding affected the central Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard, with some isolated 8-inch rainfall totals across mountainous areas. There were 11 deaths caused by flooding in the region (Associated Press). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Euro continues to look nice on the 12z run. I'm so glad this is turning into a much more significant rainfall with a lot of the area getting 1.50 to 2.50 of rain. It will put a bit of a dent in the drought but most importantly will help a lot with the fires. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 05:53 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 05:53 PM 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Euro continues to look nice on the 12z run. I'm so glad this is turning into a much more significant rainfall with a lot of the area getting 1.50 to 2.50 of rain. It will put a bit of a dent in the drought but most importantly will help a lot with the fires. Another potential storm on Thanksgiving too. Wild to think November could end up above average rainfall but still a ways to go of course 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Tuesday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:58 PM Euro is a major snowstorm for Sussex County NJ above about 800ft. At this point considering model consensus you'd have to forecast snow for at least Sussex, western Orange, Ulster, Pike and Wayne PA and add snow possible, particularly above 500ft in Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Putnam, all of Orange and Westchester. Any potential accumulations outside of elevated areas will probably be a nowcast determination. But thermal profiles certainly look cold enough above 1000ft and briefly below that, depending on intensity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: Euro is a major snowstorm for Sussex County NJ above about 800ft. At this point considering model consensus you'd have to forecast snow for at least Sussex, western Orange, Pike and Wayne PA and add snow possible, particularly above 500ft in Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Putnam, all of Orange and Westchester. Any potential accumulations outside of elevated areas will probably be a nowcast determination. But thermal profiles certainly look cold enough above 1000ft and briefly below that, depending on intensity. Damn 12z Euro is a full fledge snowstorm up here after 1" of rain.. Almost every piece of guidance has measurable snowfall in these parts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: Euro is a major snowstorm for Sussex County NJ above about 800ft. At this point considering model consensus you'd have to forecast snow for at least Sussex, western Orange, Ulster, Pike and Wayne PA and add snow possible, particularly above 500ft in Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Putnam, all of Orange and Westchester. Any potential accumulations outside of elevated areas will probably be a nowcast determination. But thermal profiles certainly look cold enough above 1000ft and briefly below that, depending on intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'll take that 13-14" at my house on that map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM 10 minutes ago, snywx said: Damn 12z Euro is a full fledge snowstorm up here after 1" of rain.. Almost every piece of guidance has measurable snowfall in these parts Yup. And it's not a random model blip. We have multi-run and multi-model continuity. Sure there are some important differences between the GFS, EC, CMC, Ikon etc that affect distribution of potential snow accumulations, but everything is pointing in the same general direction. I also think snow accumulations could be pretty localized Thurs night into Fri morning before precip. tapers off, the SLP fills, boundary layer temps warm slightly, and elevation/upslope influence takes over. Where does any banding sets up and what's the trajectory of the pivot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM That’s a very cold look on the gefs to end the month into the start of December if true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM Just now, Allsnow said: That’s a very cold look on the gefs to end the month into the start of December if true Yep with a snowstorm. Hopefully the epo signal is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted Tuesday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:14 PM 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Yup. And it's not a random model blip. We have multi-run and multi-model continuity. Sure there are some important differences between the GFS, EC, CMC, Ikon etc that affect distribution of potential snow accumulations, but everything is pointing in the same general direction. I also think snow accumulations could be pretty localized Thurs night into Fri morning before precip. tapers off, the SLP fills, boundary layer temps warm slightly, and elevation/upslope influence takes over. Where does any banding sets up and what's the trajectory of the pivot? As of right now if im in Sussex county, Western Orange, Pike, Sullivan I would be preparing for a heavy wet snow event. Most of those areas are elevated as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Tuesday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:15 PM 9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: I'll take that 13-14" at my house on that map! Realistically that's probably a coating to 1" at 500ft, 2-4" at 1000ft, and 4-6" at 1500ft. 10:1 is only going to work out in extreme NEPA or the higher peaks of the Catskills. Banding is a wild card. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM 8 minutes ago, snywx said: As of right now if im in Sussex county, Western Orange, Pike, Sullivan I would be preparing for a heavy wet snow event. Most of those areas are elevated as well. Absolutely agree. As modeled in those areas it's bigger than anything I saw last winter. Quite a way to end a drought and herald in a more active period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM 7 minutes ago, eduggs said: Realistically that's probably a coating to 1" at 500ft, 2-4" at 1000ft, and 4-6" at 1500ft. 10:1 is only going to work out in extreme NEPA or the higher peaks of the Catskills. Banding is a wild card. This one was always going to be about elevation. It’s been great to have something this interesting to track on the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM I can see areas in Port Jervis near Greenville mtn ( 1300') cashing in, Highland Lakes down in NJ def doing well. That's def a weenie spot for elevation events 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM 20 minutes ago, snywx said: I can see areas in Port Jervis near Greenville min ( 1300') cashing in, Highland Lakes down in NJ def doing well. That's def a weenie spot for elevation events Yup. I'm in Weenieville. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM The AIFS has done a pretty solid job over the summer with the overall synoptic pattern across the NHEM. The fact that it keeps the EPO in the tank and the NAO negative is rather encouraging for additional snow risks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:09 PM 1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said: I'll take that 13-14" at my house on that map! It won’t be 10-1, probably more like 7-1 ratio. But a very nice event in higher elevations regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM This looks like one of the strongest storm systems we have seen in the East this year near -4SD. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM It’s happening 3 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: whatever drugs you're on, can you share 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Will this finally put my perennials to winter sleep? Got plants still growing, new off shoots and new flowers... Bees still pollinating! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM 13 minutes ago, steve392 said: Will this finally put my perennials to winter sleep? Got plants still growing, new off shoots and new flowers... Bees still pollinating! No hard freeze so maybe not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No hard freeze so maybe not At least this winter won’t be DOA. La Niña will peak weak at best and perhaps for a short duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:20 PM Another thing to watch may be a sting jet-like feature just south of the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No hard freeze so maybe not Probably not until early December at this point. Grass is still green and my black eye Susan’s aren’t dormant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Probably not until early December at this point. Grass is still green and my black eye Susan’s aren’t dormant i have blooming lantana 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted Tuesday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:55 PM This thread is full of... optimism? Is everyone all right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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