North and West Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 14 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs! I always love your enthusiasm to counterbalance the wacky waving, arm flailing, end of the world postings each year, but this has about as good a chance as happening as I do to have successive and successful dates with Ana de Armas. Both things fall under the category of Things That Won't Be Happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 9 hours ago, TriPol said: Multiple large drones over Morristown, NJ I live right by the airport, and they're probably doing preparation work for when Trump flies back in as president to go to Bedminster. Happened all the time in the first term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 It would be great if the new Euro extended delivers on the multiple rainfall chances right into early December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 6z euro Seems more realistic. 0z was a bit overdone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 50 / 36 cooler today near / low 60s. Best rainfall since Since late Sep and perhaps largest rainfall since early August. 1.00 - 2.00 widespread more north between Wed night and Fri night. Cooler / drier weekend and through Thanksgiving. Next shot at rain or perhaps a mix is black friday.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Wettest since August in our area as the NoCal and PNW get flooded 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Dep through Nov 18 - with the cooler next 10 days these will trim down maybe in hlaf JFK: +6.6 EWR: +6.3 LGA: +5.1 NYC: +4.9 ISP: +4.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Top 5 warmest fall across the entire region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Good morning..apparently the forecast has changed. Dry ground heats up. Well it was nice while it lasted 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 9 hours ago, eduggs said: We've got a Walt D. I-84 special modeled for Thurs - Sat morning but no Walt thread, which is unfortunate. Most modeling now has first snowflakes of the winter for a lot of areas sometime during this period. Could also be a significant elevation snowstorm for at least a narrow area. All I see are cutters? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Great to see the models coming in wetter. This will be one of the strongest upper lows in the East this time of year. Hopefully, the is the first step toward a much wetter pattern as we head into December. First time in a very long time that the southeast ridge has not fought back to screw things up and has allowed a northern stream s/w to dig far enough south and deliver the goods. Hopefully a good sign of things to come but I'm not going to get carried away just yet. I will take the upcoming rain and thoroughly enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 9 minutes ago, Dark Star said: All I see are cutters? Right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It would be great if the new Euro extended delivers on the multiple rainfall chances right into early December. I don't even care that it is rain and not snow that is modeled. Will take every drop and be happy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Top 5 warmest fall across the entire region. I'm guessing a top 5 driest as well? Depending on what happens over the next 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 33 minutes ago, Dark Star said: All I see are cutters? Put on your glasses then. Or more likely you're looking too far out into the future. THIS thursday-Friday is an I-84 elevation snow threat. The kind that Walt D is often all over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Maybe some flakes down this way with the next system with accumulating snow near the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 29 minutes ago, eduggs said: Put on your glasses then. Or more likely you're looking too far out into the future. THIS thursday-Friday is an I-84 elevation snow threat. The kind that Walt D is often all over. Extreme western Orange, N Sussex above 1000' are looking at a plowable snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe some flakes down this way with the next system with accumulating snow near the Catskills. Should definitely see some wet flakes with temps in the mid 30s by Friday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Trend is your friend on the 12z Goofus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Trend is your friend on the 12z Goofus That deformation axis under the ULL looks like the real deal. Might be a good blue bomb snow for the Catskills, even Orange County. Of course whatever rain we can get is more than welcome. Hopefully a sign of stormier times ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Lots of people sleeping on this end of week event. Certainly most are focusing on the drought busting potential but also squinting into the distant future for a more perfect snow threat. 12z CMC and GFS look pretty wild for the immediate NW suburbs. Rapidly developing and stalling SLP wrapping moisture back into a marginally snow-supporting column. Any distinct banding could be fun. Modeling has been very consistent and if it holds this could be a fun nowcast. Highly trackable event! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Lots of people sleeping on this end of week event. Certainly most are focusing on the drought busting potential but also squinting into the distant future for a more perfect snow threat. 12z CMC and GFS look pretty wild for the immediate NW suburbs. Rapidly developing and stalling SLP wrapping moisture back into a marginally snow-supporting column. Any distinct banding could be fun. Modeling has been very consistent and if it holds this could be a fun nowcast. Highly trackable event!When you saw immediate NW… . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 13z NBM continues to tick up as guidance comes in south/more dynamic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 18 minutes ago, eduggs said: Lots of people sleeping on this end of week event. Certainly most are focusing on the drought busting potential but also squinting into the distant future for a more perfect snow threat. 12z CMC and GFS look pretty wild for the immediate NW suburbs. Rapidly developing and stalling SLP wrapping moisture back into a marginally snow-supporting column. Any distinct banding could be fun. Modeling has been very consistent and if it holds this could be a fun nowcast. Highly trackable event! Yeah I'd say it's worthy of its own thread since it's early and the first threat of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 This has positive bust potential written all over it. Soundings show 35-38F with rain/snow or wet snow on the southwest side of wherever the SLP tracks. But dynamic cooling in any intense banding could easily bring that to 33 or 34 and pounding parachutes. The cold air delivery has worsened slightly in recent runs unfortunately. I think a few places could get a surprise coating to maybe an inch or two that were not expecting anything wintry. Still looks like the NJ-NY-PA border area up into the western Catskills is the place to be for a plowable event. but it's definitely worth watching even across Morris, Passaic, Putnam, Westchester etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 32 minutes ago, eduggs said: Lots of people sleeping on this end of week event. Certainly most are focusing on the drought busting potential but also squinting into the distant future for a more perfect snow threat. 12z CMC and GFS look pretty wild for the immediate NW suburbs. Rapidly developing and stalling SLP wrapping moisture back into a marginally snow-supporting column. Any distinct banding could be fun. Modeling has been very consistent and if it holds this could be a fun nowcast. Highly trackable event! Wrap around moisture is usually a fail, more times than not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 very dynamic solutions showing up for NNJ and parts of the HV. very good FGEN and lift BL is going to be an issue this early in the year but heavy rates and post sundown timing really increase the odds for accums. hills are going to be favored in these early season situations, though it's best not to mess around with setups as dynamic as these 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 12 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Wrap around moisture is usually a fail, more times than not? Well sure. Locally it's difficult to get snow on the backside of a storm. That's primarily due to regional topography and the timing and placement of mesoscale features. The Catskills and Taconics do better due to the upsloping component instead of downsloping. Chances are low by default in our part of the world. But we have a slow moving, mature mid and upper level low with strong moisture transport, excellent PVA, vertical accent etc. These are the prerequisites for a "wraparound" event, particularly in a marginal column. Whether the 500mb low and associated vorticity swings up into New England, northwest into CNY, or stays put in CT could determine if anybody locally whitens the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 19 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Wrap around moisture is usually a fail, more times than not? this is a bit different than typical wraparound moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, eduggs said: Lots of people sleeping on this end of week event. Certainly most are focusing on the drought busting potential but also squinting into the distant future for a more perfect snow threat. 12z CMC and GFS look pretty wild for the immediate NW suburbs. Rapidly developing and stalling SLP wrapping moisture back into a marginally snow-supporting column. Any distinct banding could be fun. Modeling has been very consistent and if it holds this could be a fun nowcast. Highly trackable event! I wish the LI Sound wasn’t still a billion degrees. Can someone send some dump trucks full of ice there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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