MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 3 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Eps has the EPO tanking next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs! The best part is its going to try and have a second storm behind it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 the ukmet and 18z euro soak us. we might have a chance 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI in the medium to long range... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Shit! The heaviest is south and east of me ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 It's coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Dammit I just peaked at the GFS. Doubt that happens like that but she had a nice ass 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: lol, always fun to see the first clown map of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 Just now, ILoveWinter said: lol, always fun to see the first clown map of the year! Nah that's at least the 2nd or 3rd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Nah that's at least the 2nd or 3rd Really? I guess this one is prob the first that is even close to being within the realm of reality (not betting on it of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Decided to have some fun with data and correlated NYC snowfalls in December with temperatures around the world for the last 44 years. The first map only has statistically significant correlations and the second shows all. I guess a cold Plains and Midwest corresponds with higher snowfall around here. I probably didn't need to run the numbers to figure that out but here it is anyway. I was surprised by the western Canada correlation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with temperatures topping out mainly in the middle 50s. The dry weather will continue through the middle of the week. Rain is likely Wednesday night and Thursday. A storm total of 0.50"-1.00" is likely with some locally higher amounts of 1.50". That rain will likely be followed by a period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures. With the remainder of November potentially becoming mainly dry following the rainstorm, parts of the region could challenge records for their driest fall and driest season on record. Select records are below: New York City: Driest fall: 4.00", Fall 1908; Driest season: 3.92", Summer 1999 Newark: Driest fall: 4.21", Fall 1931; Driest season: 4.21", Fall 1931 Philadelphia: Driest fall: 2.37", Fall, 1922; Driest season: 2.37", Fall 1922 Wilmington, DE: Driest fall: 3.17", Fall 1922; Driest season: 3.17", Fall 1922 The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased. The SOI was +9.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.012 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 28 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Really? I guess this one is prob the first that is even close to being within the realm of reality (not betting on it of course) I think last week it was giving us 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Where do I sign up?? We need rain in the worst way down here. Never seen it so dry in my 45 years living here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Just bought a subscription for Pivotal Weather . It's only 9.99 a month and just as fast as Stormvista. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 3 hours ago, MANDA said: Shit! The heaviest is south and east of me ! I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Multiple large drones over Morristown, NJ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 Except for the nam it's a 1 to 2" event now for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Except for the nam it's a 1 to 2" event now for most. maybe the nam will beat all the other models 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 37 minutes ago, TriPol said: Multiple large drones over Morristown, NJ Where? Any video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Highs: JFK: 70 EWR: 70 ACY: 68 New Brnswck: 67 TEB: 67 ISP: 66 BLM: 66 PHL: 66 LGA: 66 NYC: 66 TTN: 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 We've got a Walt D. I-84 special modeled for Thurs - Sat morning but no Walt thread, which is unfortunate. Most modeling now has first snowflakes of the winter for a lot of areas sometime during this period. Could also be a significant elevation snowstorm for at least a narrow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 I woke up and expected the 6z NAM to be juiced to hell and showing 6 inches of rain but surprisingly it’s the driest out of every model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 10 hours ago, Allsnow said: 6z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Great to see the models coming in wetter. This will be one of the strongest upper lows in the East this time of year. Hopefully, the is the first step toward a much wetter pattern as we head into December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z euro There should be a juiced deformation axis somewhere that gets 2-3”+ where it pivots around. In higher elevations that is probably snow. Desperately needed for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I woke up and expected the 6z NAM to be juiced to hell and showing 6 inches of rain but surprisingly it’s the driest out of every model lol might be the 12z run today...LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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