psv88 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 64 today. Never ending perfect weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Euro AI is a drencher 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 we need the rain... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 50 minutes ago, nycwinter said: we need the rain... It's coming I have a feeling this winter will be good. Neutral ENSO to a weak La Nina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Highs: a bit cloudier kept today an under performer, rare of late TEB: 67 EWR: 66 JFK: 66 New Brnswck: 65 ISP: 65 ACY: 65 BLM: 64 LGA: 63 NYC; 63 TTN: 62 PHL: 61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's coming I have a feeling this winter will be good. Neutral ENSO to a weak La Nina We need Arctic stream involvement. These Polar jet driven systems won’t get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro AI is a drencher 18z is similiar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 20 minutes ago, Tatamy said: We need Arctic stream involvement. These Polar jet driven systems won’t get it done. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Cool halo around the moon tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 The ensembles have definitely cut back QPF area wide since yesterday morning but are still more than we have seen in months. The GEFS is less than an inch, GEPS is around an inch, EPS is just over an inch and the NWS blend of models is around an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The ensembles have definitely cut back QPF area wide since yesterday morning but are still more than we have seen in months. The GEFS is less than an inch, GEPS is around an inch, EPS is just over an inch and the NWS blend of models is around an inch We need the UL to dig further south like the Euro and other guidance to have a chance at a wetter scenario than the GFS which doesn’t dig as much. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 55 / 38 clear. We'll se if today is a bit over performer on high temperatures. Mid / upper 60s and near/low 70s in the warm spots. Likely the warmest day for a while. A bit cooler Tue and Wed then first rain 0.50 or greater in 50 days for many Thu into Fri. Cooler this weekend and into Thanksgiving but dry again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18 Author Share Posted November 18 nam looks like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: nam looks like crap Frontal passage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Said yesterday much will depend on track of upper level low and development (If any) of a triple point surface feature. That remains true this morning. Lots off room here for just frontal passage type rains. Trends today and tomorrow will be key. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18 Author Share Posted November 18 18 minutes ago, MANDA said: Said yesterday much will depend on track of upper level low and development (If any) of a triple point surface feature. That remains true this morning. Lots off room here for just frontal passage type rains. Trends today and tomorrow will be key. There's also just a general lack of precip on the nam. Though at this point it probably represents the floor for this event .25 to .5". Rgem would be much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: There's also just a general lack of precip on the nam. Though at this point it probably represents the floor for this event .25 to .5". Rgem would be much better We're probably going to get somewhere between a half inch and an inch from this event. Not the major rainstorm that we really need, but it will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18 Author Share Posted November 18 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: We're probably going to get somewhere between a half inch and an inch from this event. Not the major rainstorm that we really need, but it will help. Yeah seems like a safe bet. 1"+ seems unlikely this far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: nam looks like crap Not in range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 The 12z GFS took a step toward the more amplified and wetter models. New run UL and vort digging more into GA Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18 Author Share Posted November 18 Euro ukie and cmc remain the wettest 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Definitely some snow potential for the Poconos, NWNJ, Catskills, etc. Potential for a few to several inches and today's 12Z models are even showing up to an inch of snow down to I-80 (W of 287). And we're now within 3-4 days, so not quite fantasy land anymore. More importantly, we need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Another torch day here to add to the collection this month. 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Another torch day here to add to the collection this month. 66 67 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 November 18 and yet another butterfly fluttering by me in the backyard lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Definitely some snow potential for the Poconos, NWNJ, Catskills, etc. Potential for a few to several inches and today's 12Z models are even showing up to an inch of snow down to I-80 (W of 287). And we're now within 3-4 days, so not quite fantasy land anymore. More importantly, we need the rain. Upton is hinting at the possibility of snow up here in this mornings AFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 26 minutes ago, Uniblab said: November 18 and yet another butterfly fluttering by me in the backyard lol. I've seen them out too still. Was swatting away bees earlier too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 50 minutes ago, snywx said: Upton is hinting at the possibility of snow up here in this mornings AFD If you want something to peruse check out today’s 12z ensemble runs (entire run) - particularly for north and west areas. I am not talking about today’s CFS runs as they are at a whole different level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Gfs! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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