November 2024

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be.

WX/PT

Some changes on the GFS this morning, not sure if they are real. The ridge over the Plains states starting to break down around 246 hours and a trough begins to take shape. In the longrun the Gulf of Mexico could open up, we'll see. We already see more activity swinging through from west to east with another Great Lakes runner around Nov 27th.

WX/PT

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, 2112wxgrl said:

I was a hs freshmen for that one. Other towns closed school, but not Pompton Lakes. Us students were so pissed that the seniors held a “hell no, we won’t go” protest in the halls and a freshman(not me, lol) pulled a fire alarm! That’s how desperate times were then for a snow day.

On 2/11/94 my district as always just was refusing to close.  Finally the parents calling in furious led to them at like 750am saying they were closed.  My mom had already decided no way was I going in that day.  We were always one of the hardest districts on LI to close back in the 80s/90s.  We went from Jan 87 to 2/9/94 without a single snow day which was remarkable.  Weekend events helped that out somewhat but still there were plenty of bad week day events where we stayed open and almost 90% of LI was closed.  Setauket was another district notorious for never wanting to close back in the day.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the lake event and cold shot is a fail for thanksgiving week. The ULL is getting cut off while the block is not retrograding west. The pac just does not want to slow down. Good reminder for the coming winter 

Not sure the Pac is really to blame, the system just is  just going to be more closed off than originally anticipated a few days ago, there is plenty of cold air to have otherwise been tapped across south central Canada and without the close off Thu-Sun would have been pretty cold across the East, even down into the deep south.  The Pac is more to blame for the relaxation in the D7-11 period which the post from bluewave shows the models never saw coming 5 days back.   The one positive we are at least seeing so far is higher heights wanting to keep showing up near AK which Eric Webb and a few others on X have been hinting at for a couple of months the setup this year is one where historically some winters have had the -EPO or the poleward ridge into AK.  I am not sure if the fact we now might have more of a neutral winter vs weak Nina is problematic somewhat for that.  It could allow the QBO/MJO/solar to end up being more dominant. 

[MJO812]

Gfs finally brings in winter

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. 

Not what Earthlight said. He said the blocking is going to happen. 

[winterwx21]

12z Euro gives us a nice half inch to 1 inch soaking Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Obviously too early to be confident about it, but let's hope that's correct. Boy do we need it. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro gives us a nice half inch to 1 inch soaking Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Obviously too early to be confident about it, but let's hope that's correct. Boy do we need it. 

Cmc and Ukie too but they've been overdone lately 

[winterwx21]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc and Ukie too but they've been overdone lately 

At least we have a few models showing a nice 1 inch soaking, but I know it's hard to break through during a dry pattern. It wouldn't be surprising to see this threat fall apart, but at least we have some hope. 

[Stormlover74]

34 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At least we have a few models showing a nice 1 inch soaking, but I know it's hard to break through during a dry pattern. It wouldn't be surprising to see this threat fall apart, but at least we have some hope. 

I think it's more the risk of the heaviest going north and west of us and we end up with scattered showers like the gfs is showing

[snowman19]

They fall for it everytime

The record drought and warmth since late August being 2 big warning signs….This right here is a BIG red flag. Warning bells going off, but it will be ignored by some

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think it's more the risk of the heaviest going north and west of us and we end up with scattered showers like the gfs is showing

This still looks like nothing more than FROPA with GOM influx completely cut off. I expect the drying trend to continue. Take the under on this one

[psv88]

63. Beautiful 

[nycwinter]

anyone feel cold with this chilly dry air or is it just me?

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  74 (2005)
NYC:  72 (1928)
LGA: 72 (1990)
JFK: 72 (2001)



Lows: 

EWR: 15 (1933)
NYC: 17 (1933)
LGA: 22 (1967)
JFK: 20 (1967)

Historical:

 

1958 - More than six inches of snow fell at Tucson, AZ. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1959 - The most severe November cold wave in U.S. history was in progress. A weather observing station located 14 miles northeast of Lincoln MT reported a reading of 53 degrees below zero, which established an all-time record low temperature for the nation for the month of November. Their high that day was one degree above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - High winds and heavy snow created blizzard conditions across parts of eastern Colorado. Wind gusts reached 68 mph at Pueblo, and snowfall totals ranged up to 37 inches at Echo Lake. In Wyoming, the temperature dipped to 14 degrees below zero at Laramie. Strong thunderstorms in Louisiana drenched Alexandria with 16.65 inches of rain in thirty hours, with an unofficial total of 21.21 inches north of Olla. Flash flooding in Louisiana caused five to six million dollars damage. (15th-16th) (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system in the north central U.S. produced high winds across the Great Lakes Region, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Chicago IL. Heavy snow blanketed much of Minnesota, with eleven inches reported at International Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and gusty winds invaded the north central U.S. Winds gusting to 40 mph produced wind chill readings as cold as 25 degrees below zero, and blizzard conditions were reported in Nebraska during the late morning hours. High winds around a powerful low pressure system produced squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Whitefish Point MI, and snowfall totals in Michigan ranged up to 19 inches at Hart, north of Muskegon. (15th-16th) (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - An F-3 tornado strikes Riegelwood, NC causing eight deaths and twenty injuries

[steve392]

36 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

anyone feel cold with this chilly dry air or is it just me?

Its not to bad.  Still in shorts lol

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s across much of the region. The dry weather will continue through the middle of next week. Rain is likely Wednesday night and Thursday. The potential exists for 0.50" or more of rain. That rain will likely be followed by a period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures.

With the remainder of November potentially becoming mainly dry following rainsform next week, parts of the region could challenge records for their driest fall and driest season on record. Select records are below:

New York City: Driest fall: 4.00", Fall 1908; Driest season: 3.92", Summer 1999
Newark: Driest fall: 4.21", Fall 1931; Driest season: 4.21", Fall 1931
Philadelphia: Driest fall: 2.37", Fall, 1922; Driest season: 2.37", Fall 1922
Wilmington, DE: Driest fall: 3.17", Fall 1922; Driest season: 3.17", Fall 1922

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +6.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.131 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

anyone feel cold with this chilly dry air or is it just me?

Chilly?  It was near 65 today

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

JFK: 66
EWR: 65
TEB: 64
New Brnswck: 63
ISP: 63
ACY: 63
LGA: 63
BLM: 62
PHL: 62
NYC: 62
TTN: 60

[MJO812]

Let's trend this baby south 

[SRRTA22]

Let's be real...

No one on this planet knows what the northeast winter will look like..... Everything we thought we knew has been thrown out the window and that's the REAL reality.

Unprecedented times but unprecedented times always brings great education and experience. 

We need this.

[Stormlover74]

Euro very wet now and keeps going into Friday 

[bluewave]

While we have been in a record dry pattern, at least the strong block and cutoff low this week will represent the best potential we have seen this fall for over .50 of rainfall. 

 

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we have been in a record dry pattern, at least the strong block and cutoff low this week will represent the best potential we have seen this fall for over .50 of rainfall. 

 

IF (and it’s a big if) the models can keep this new idea of the closed cutoff upper low and secondary surface development then this week would be the best chance at over .50 of rain we’ve had since mid-August. With the way things have gone since then, I would view these new solutions with caution 

This is the NWS blend of models:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111706&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Tatamy]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Let's trend this baby south 

You’re going to need elevation for this one.

[Allsnow]

Wow. Please be correct 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro very wet now and keeps going into Friday 

Great news

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Great news

EPS mean over a inch for the area 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS mean over a inch for the area 

Finally

I have been smelling smoke during the week here in Brooklyn. 

All the grass have been turning brown. Very bad.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Finally

I have been smelling smoke during the week here in Brooklyn. 

All the grass have been turning brown. Very bad.

There is a town north of me in Orange County called Greenwood Lake. They have an out of control wild fire that looks like something from out west. It’s insane up there 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IF (and it’s a big if) the models can keep this new idea of the closed cutoff upper low and secondary surface development then this week would be the best chance at over .50 of rain we’ve had since mid-August. With the way things have gone since then, I would view these new solutions with caution 

This is the NWS blend of models:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111706&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

This is probably one of the most amplified patterns in terms of blocking near Alaska and Greenland that we have seen in mid-November. So it would be a really big disappointment if this didn’t produce our best event of the fall so far. Granted the bar is set very low to be the best of this fall.