November 2024

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, BlizzLuv said:

24 degrees when I woke up. Brrrr

Saw a few stations nearby got to 21 and 22.  

[Eduardo]

32 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

If we break 6 inches in December, generally speaking we are at least average, usually above for the season. I was just looking at this and IIRC in the last 30 yrs there is only 1 season where that did didn’t work out, but it was still close.

I think that Chris (@bluewave) had some stats on this. There’s also a strong positive correlation between December’s AO and how that teleconnection plays out over the remainder of the winter, though I don’t know what impact, if any, ENSO has on that.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I think that Chris (@bluewave) had some stats on this. There’s also a strong positive correlation between December’s AO and how that teleconnection plays out over the remainder of the winter, though I don’t know what impact, if any, ENSO has on that.

Any December which can’t make it to 3” in NYC during a La Niña finishes the season below average.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Is that your first below 32?  I got to 27 then it stopped dropping here.  

First. But still no hard freeze. Just frost on car tops 

[snywx]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Only got to 21 here, so no first teens of the season. KMGJ up the road got down to 19. 

elevation got me here.. Only down to 26° here

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most of the area in severe drought now

Not improving in the near future.  Just so glad this did not happen during the warmer months.  Would have been hellish for those with ag interests not to mention home gardeners.  Also not to mention what it would have done to elevate temperatures.

[MANDA]

Nico to have a cloudy day for a change.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nico to have a cloudy day for a change.

mostly sunny here at least for now.   Same ol same ol LOL

[SACRUS]

 

Records:


Highs:

EWR: 73 (1993)
NYC; 72 (1993)
LGA: 72 (1993)
JFK: 68 (2005)

Lows:

EWR: 21 (1986)
NYC: 20 (1905)
LGA: 24 (1986)
JFK: 24 (2019)

Historical:


 

1921: During the afternoon hours, thunderstorms brought severe hail to portions of Alabama. The hailstones ranged from about the size of buckshot to as large as a baseball. The largest stoned weighed as much as a pound.

1964 - With the help of a fresh three inch cover of snow, the temperature at Ely, NV, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to establish an all-time record low for the month of November. That record of -15 degrees was later equalled on the 19th of November in 1985. (The Weather Channel)

 

1969: Apollo 12 was launched into a threatening gray sky with ominous cumulus clouds. Pete Conrad's words 43 seconds after liftoff, electrified everyone in the Control Center: "We had a whole bunch of buses drops out," followed by "Where are we going?" and "I just lost the platform." Lightning had stricken the spacecraft. Warning lights were illuminated, and the spacecraft guidance system lost its attitude reference.

1974 - A storm produced 15 inches of snow at the Buffalo, NY, airport, and 30 inches on the south shore of Lake Erie. (David Ludlum)

1986 - An early season cold wave set more than 200 records from the northwestern U.S. to the east coast over a seven day period. For some places it proved to be the coldest weather of the winter season. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - The first major snowstorm of the season hit the Southern and Central Rockies, producing 12 inches at the Brian Head ski resort in Utah overnight. Strong and gusty winds associated with the storm reached 52 mph at Ruidoso NM. In the eastern U.S., the temperature at Washington D.C. soared to 68 degrees, just three days after being buried under more than a foot of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A massive storm produced snow and gusty winds in the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Show Low AZ, and Donner Summit, located in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, was buried under 23 inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked parts of California, with 3.19 inches reported at Blue Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed east of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as New England, and readings in the 80s were reported across the southeast quarter of the nation. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second time in the month Dallas/Fort Worth TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees. The high of 91 degrees at Waco TX was their warmest of record for so late in the season. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Wyoming overnight, with a foot of snow reported at Cody, and ten inches at Yellowstone Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[steve392]

Not sure what temp got diwn to by me but it was so perfect for sleeping with windows open.  

[snywx]

Finally a day that feels like late fall here..  

1pm - 41° overcast 

[steve392]

Clouds.... Haven't seen this many clouds in weeks if not months. 

[the_other_guy]

Belleayre opens tomorrow! Bullish!

[donsutherland1]

A gradual warming trend will get underway tomorrow with temperatures returning to the 50s across the region. A mild and dry weekend is likely with readings in the lower 60s. The dry weather will likely continue into at least early next week. Rain is possible late next week.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +11.51 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.557 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

 

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Belleayre opens tomorrow! Bullish!

Sure is with 9% terrain open. 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Spent three hours putting up xmas lights...in shorts. Stopped for a second around 3:00 and the sky had that "snow is coming" look to it. Oh well.

[Pequest]

11 hours ago, FPizz said:

Saw a few stations nearby got to 21 and 22.  

Got down to 19 out here in the sticks. 17 up in Sussex County. 

[bluewave]

Models finally starting to agree on a strong cutter next week which could bring the best rains this fall. Want to see this continue in the runs next few days. But it may be the best chance we have of a decent rainstorm this fall. Hopefully, the retrogression works out for us like it has in the past.

 

[Roger Smith]

In my list of "extended dry spells" with average rainfall less than .01" every two days, 2024 is now about to move into first place, tying 1995 (July 29 to Sep 12, 46 days, 0.18") yesterday ...

Sep 30 - Nov 14 2024 (46d) 0.19"

and according to GFS will get to 53 days (to Nov 21), 0.07" can fall in next 6-7 days without ending an "extended dry spell" (but little or no rain is predicted)... If 0.10" fell on Nov 22, the extended dry spell would be "dormant" at a total rainfall of 0.29" (0.27" ends a 53 day spell but 3-4 dry days would reactivate it, but GFS guidance looks closer to 0.25-0.50 at least.

1924 ended at 44 days when 1.85" fell on Nov 22 (extended dry spell Oct 9 - Nov 21  had only .01" total on Nov 14 -- spell is in 3rd place now).

The 1924 dry spell had 0.28" the day before it started (Oct 8),  and seven dry days before that (Oct 1-7), so it was very close to qualifying as a 52-day extended dry spell.

Of course my criterion is arbitrary, so there is no real distinction between the 52-day 1924 spell and the apparent 53-day 2024 spell. I chose .01" every two days to allow absolute dry spells to be extended if little rain fell on either side in data sets, and it is equivalent to a monthly total of around 0.15" which is an exceptionally dry total. Spells that average .01" per day would be an interesting comparison, as that is still relatively very dry.

 

[MJO812]

44 here

[MJO812]

Strong fire smell in Staten Island

[stu]

Same here in Glen Ridge/Montclair. Very smoky.

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models finally starting to agree on a strong cutter next week which could bring the best rains this fall. Want to see this continue in the runs next few days. But it may be the best chance we have of a decent rainstorm this fall. Hopefully, the retrogression works out for us like it has in the past.

 

Cutter or not....I'll take it!  Like to see some model persistence as well but I am optimistic. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Cutter or not....I'll take it!  Like to see some model persistence as well but I am optimistic. 

This will be a rare occasion when the forum wants to see a stronger and wetter cutter.

[MJO812]

Please 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Please 

All the models have it. Just a matter of if the heaviest goes to our north and west like the gfs has been showing

[Volcanic Winter]

She’ll do. 

My yard looks like if I flicked a tree or plant it would crumble to ash and blow away in the wind. I’m near the cutoff to the zone of the worst drought stage in the area. We only got like .15 “ of rain the other day, basically nothing against the kind of deficit we’re running. 

[Yanksfan]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Please 

 

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Please 

Hope that track is a recurring theme this winter. 

[snowman19]

The Euro is very likely the closest to reality for next week. I don’t see it being much than a run of the mill FROPA. The Canadian is totally off its rocker as usual and the GFS has a wildly different solution on every run

[winterwx21]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro is very likely the closest to reality for next week. I don’t see it being much than a run of the mill FROPA. The Canadian is totally off its rocker as usual and the GFS has a wildly different solution on every run

12z Euro does give most of the area a nice half inch to inch soaking Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with some spots getting more than that. Obviously we would be thrilled with that at this point.