November 2024

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

I wish there was legalized betting on this!

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. Seems like they favor late December into January for snow/cold. February is a torch according to the outlook 

I will have my outlook by the first week of December and this is what I posted in the main forum.

The next 3 weeks are going to be very telling. On one hand we had the split between the MJO and strength of the ENSO back in October that I went into detail about in an earlier post. So we’ll know one way or another by December 7th if there is to be some type of mismatch where the Niña and -PDO background gets nullified like we saw in 20-21 with the much better December which carried through the winter.  That was our only winter since 15-16 without at least one month with a +10 for a spot in the CONUS. But if the warmer pattern the seasonal models have been advertising becomes evident during the first week of December, then the MJO will probably slow down in the warmer phases and the mid to late part of December will be the warmest part of the month. Then we wait and see what happens near the start of January. 

My post from late October

The MJO activity in MJO 5 is unusually strong for weaker La Niña this month. The latest RMM index is closer to 2020, 2017, and 2010 than 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2011. Whether we use the ONI or RONI this fall so far is closer to the weaker La Niña years like 2016. But for some reason we are still getting the stronger October MJO response which preceded the better La Niña winters. These Decembers like 2020, 2017, and 2010, had more of a mismatch pattern where the December patterns were snowier and in some cases colder like 2017 and 2010. Since we are getting this divergence between the strength of the La Niña and early MJO response not really sure what to make of it yet. Since our best La Niña winters were actually the stronger ones of the groupings and not the weaker ones. Plus there is no guarantee that this indicator will continue to work as it did in the past. As always, we may just have to wait until December actually gets underway in order to know for sure. Especially since there are other indicators signaling the potential for above to potentially well above normal temperatures and below average snowfall in NYC.

It’s based on the MJO RMM amplitude and VP anomalies in phase 5-6 during La Niña Octobers since 2010. The stronger October MJO responses had better winters in NYC relative to the other La Ninas in the multiyear event group. Those stronger MJO 5-6 Octobers also had the more robust peak La Niña ONIs from fall into winter of the multiyear groups.  All the La Niña winters around NYC since 11-12 have averaged warmer than normal. But even the warmer than average 17-18 and 20-21 winters had better snowfall than the other years in the multiyear group.

In addition, we haven’t had any cold neutral ENSOs in the -0.1 to -0.5 peak range with a strong -PDO since 2010. So not sure how the relationship would work for any year with the official CPC ONI not getting colder than -0.5. The other thing to consider is that we don’t know how long this relationship will continue to work it.

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

Multiyear La Niña groupings below with peak MJO 5-6 strength and the peak ONI from the fall into winter…….Strongest October MJO 5-6 and La Niña ONI leading to best NYC winters of the multiyear group bolded
 

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

October 2024….Phase 5 peak +2.762…ONI….latest weekly only -0.3

 

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

 

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1

October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 

[North and West]

Agreed. Seems like they favor late December into January for snow/cold. February is a torch according to the outlook 

Honest question: how could they know for sure regarding February? It’s 75 days away. Is it just favorability and odds at this point?


.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

Honest question: how could they know for sure regarding February? It’s 75 days away. Is it just favorability and odds at this point?


.

If La Nina truly fades to nearly nothing or fails to really even hold weak status there is a better chance February is not as torchy though not a guarantee.  We've had plenty of leaning cold phase neutral winters with bad Februarys too

[Allsnow]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will have my outlook by the first week of December and this is what I posted in the main forum.

The next 3 weeks are going to be very telling. On one hand we had the split between the MJO and strength of the ENSO back in October that I went into detail about in an earlier post. So we’ll know one way or another by December 7th if there is to be some type of mismatch where the Niña and -PDO background gets nullified like we saw in 20-21 with the much better December which carried through the winter.  That was our only winter since 15-16 without at least one month with a +10 for a spot in the CONUS. But if the warmer pattern the seasonal models have been advertising becomes evident during the first week of December, then the MJO will probably slow down in the warmer phases and the mid to late part of December will be the warmest part of the month. Then we wait and see what happens near the start of January. 

My post from late October

The MJO activity in MJO 5 is unusually strong for weaker La Niña this month. The latest RMM index is closer to 2020, 2017, and 2010 than 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2011. Whether we use the ONI or RONI this fall so far is closer to the weaker La Niña years like 2016. But for some reason we are still getting the stronger October MJO response which preceded the better La Niña winters. These Decembers like 2020, 2017, and 2010, had more of a mismatch pattern where the December patterns were snowier and in some cases colder like 2017 and 2010. Since we are getting this divergence between the strength of the La Niña and early MJO response not really sure what to make of it yet. Since our best La Niña winters were actually the stronger ones of the groupings and not the weaker ones. Plus there is no guarantee that this indicator will continue to work as it did in the past. As always, we may just have to wait until December actually gets underway in order to know for sure. Especially since there are other indicators signaling the potential for above to potentially well above normal temperatures and below average snowfall in NYC.

It’s based on the MJO RMM amplitude and VP anomalies in phase 5-6 during La Niña Octobers since 2010. The stronger October MJO responses had better winters in NYC relative to the other La Ninas in the multiyear event group. Those stronger MJO 5-6 Octobers also had the more robust peak La Niña ONIs from fall into winter of the multiyear groups.  All the La Niña winters around NYC since 11-12 have averaged warmer than normal. But even the warmer than average 17-18 and 20-21 winters had better snowfall than the other years in the multiyear group.

In addition, we haven’t had any cold neutral ENSOs in the -0.1 to -0.5 peak range with a strong -PDO since 2010. So not sure how the relationship would work for any year with the official CPC ONI not getting colder than -0.5. The other thing to consider is that we don’t know how long this relationship will continue to work it.

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

Multiyear La Niña groupings below with peak MJO 5-6 strength and the peak ONI from the fall into winter…….Strongest October MJO 5-6 and La Niña ONI leading to best NYC winters of the multiyear group bolded
 

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

October 2024….Phase 5 peak +2.762…ONI….latest weekly only -0.3

 

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

 

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1

October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 

Great to read your thoughts. I remember you explaining to me the correlation between the mjo in October and the upcoming winter. Please keep us posted. Im interested to see how this blocking episode works out to end the month. Does it sink south and fail to fix the western pac or is it more  of a classic progression.

 

I remember most of us thought 20-21 would be mild/snowless. It ended up being one of my favorite winters. It really didn’t get going until the end of January into February. The January storm was one of my favorites. Hopefully we get some winter this season to satisfy all of us 

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Honest question: how could they know for sure regarding February? It’s 75 days away. Is it just favorability and odds at this point?


.

I think they’re going with a classic Nina winter progression. Which is normally warm in February 

[Allsnow]

It’s so nice how quickly the euro products come out at 1pm. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great to read your thoughts. I remember you explaining to me the correlation between the mjo in October and the upcoming winter. Please keep us posted. Im interested to see how this blocking episode works out to end the month. Does it sink south and fail to fix the western pac or is it more  of a classic progression.

 

I remember most of us thought 20-21 would be mild/snowless. It ended up being one of my favorite winters. It really didn’t get going until the end of January into February. The January storm was one of my favorites. Hopefully we get some winter this season to satisfy all of us 

Thanks. The issue this year is that while the October MJO indicator was closer to the mismatch La Niña years like 20-21, the La Niña strength is similar to the weaker years like 16-17 which were very warm. We haven’t had this divergence before going back to 2010. So I am not sure whether it will continue to work. On top of that the warmth this fall across the CONUS is the highest on record even exceeding the 2015 super El Niño. So I would like to see what the pattern and forecasts look like into the first week of December. If the MJO comes of the gate into the warm phases like we have seen so often during recent Decembers and drives the pattern,then we’ll know the MJO indicator didn’t work out probably due to the strength of the La Niña not matching the better La Niña winters which were stronger. 
 

Warmest SEP-OCT on record ahead of 2015 for the CONUS


 

 

 

[wdrag]

Anyway,  maybe my first time noticing but Pivotal now has 6 hr ECMWF op forecasts and all parameters out to 360 hours since the 12z cycle yesterday.  (12z/12). Maybe I'm late to notice. 

[Allsnow]

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Anyway,  maybe my first time noticing but Pivotal now has 6 hr ECMWF op forecasts and all parameters out to 360 hours since the 12z cycle yesterday.  (12z/12). Maybe I'm late to notice. 

Most sources have not yet even updated their sites to show it.  Accuwx has yet to.  As a matter of fact Accuwx had to overhaul their site just to get the Euro to display yesterday as the upgrade messed with things enough it was not displaying anything but thicknesses.

[Big Jims Videos]

Manasquan reservoir now sitting just under 52% capacity 

[Maureen]

29 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Manasquan reservoir now sitting just under 52% capacity 

Just saw that New Jersey went from a drought watch to a drought warning. First time in eight years. 

[mgerb]

2 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Just saw that New Jersey went from a drought warning to a drought watch. First time in eight years. 

Reverse that. Drought Watch to a Drought Warning. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1931)
NYC: 73 (1931)
LGA: 70 (1964)
JFK: 71 (1964)


Lows:

EWR: 22 (2019)
NYC: 23 (2019)
LGA: 24 (2019)
JFK: 23 (2019)


Historical:

1833: In 1833, observers were familiar with the Leonid meteor shower, but the event that year was very intense and leads to the first formulation of a theory on the origin of meteors. By some estimates, the 1833 Leonid meteor shower had 240,000 meteors in a nine-hour period.

1933 - The first dust storm of the great dust bowl era of the 1930s occurred. The dust storm, which had spread from Montana to the Ohio Valley the day before, prevailed from Georgia to Maine resulting in a black rain over New York and a brown snow in Vermont. Parts of South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa reported zero visibility on the 12th. On the 13th, dust reduced the visibility to half a mile in Tennessee. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1946 - General Electric scientists produced snow in the Massachusetts Berkshires in the first modern day cloud seeding experiment. (The Weather Channel)

 

1946: General Electric scientists produced snow in the Massachusetts Berkshires in the first modern-day cloud seeding experiment. Scientist Vincent Schaefer dropped six pounds of dry ice pellets into a cloud over Pittsfield, MA. The cloud seeding experiment produced snowfall, as a 4-mile long cloud was converted into snow flurries. The success of the experiment became the basis of many weather modification projects.

1953 - Strong southeasterly winds associated with a Pacific cold front reached 70 mph at Sacramento CA to equal their all-time record. The previous record had been established in a similar weather pattern on December 12th of the previous year. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - A powerful cyclone brought high winds to Washington State and Oregon. The cyclone, which formed about 1000 miles west of San Francisco, intensified rapidly as it approached the Oregon coast with the central pressure reaching 28.22 inches (956 millibars). A wind trace from the Whiskey Run Turbine Site, about 12 miles south of Coos Bay in Oregon, showed peak gusts to 97 mph fifty feet above ground level. The wind caused widespread damage in Washington and Oregon, with 12 deaths reported. As much as four feet of snow fell in the Sierra Nevada Range of northern California. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm moving off the Pacific Ocean produced rain and gale force winds along the northern and central Pacific coast, and heavy snow in the Cascade Mountains. Cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 21 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure brought rain and snow and gusty winds to the northeastern U.S. A thunderstorm drenched Agawam MA with 1.25 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Nantucket MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s as far north as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Afternoon highs in the 80s were reported from the Southern Plains to the southern Atlantic coast. Columbia SC reported a record high of 86 degrees, and the high of 71 degrees at Flint MI was their warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary)

[Maureen]

4 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Reverse that. Drought Watch to a Drought Warning. 

Corrected

[dWave]

Here comes a new plume of smoke headed south from a fire in Inwood Hill Pk

[donsutherland1]

New York City saw its first low temperature in the 30s this morning. That was tied with 1946 for the third latest first sub-40° temperature of the season. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 is the fourth consecutive year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996.

The temperature will again top out in the middle and upper 40s tomorrow. A warm front will also slip across the region tomorrow. Afterward, it will again turn milder to end the week. A mild and dry weekend is likely with readings in the lower 60s. The dry weather will likely continue into at least early next week.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +15.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.476 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal).

 

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, dWave said:

Here comes a new plume of smoke headed south from a fire in Inwood Hill Pk

There was a strong smoke smell this morning where I am but it wasn't visible.  

[Allsnow]

Down to 39 already. Hopefully we can end the growing season tonight but I have doubts. 

[Allsnow]

Congrats @MJO812

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Re winter forecast, as current dry spell still continuing very similar to 1924 timing, winter 1924-25 featured brief severe cold shots in Jan (-2 F set a record for Jan 28) and a mild spell in Feb peaking Feb 8-11 (records since broken). Then there was the historic super-tornado outbreak of march 18, 1925 (in IL-IN mainly).

Total winter snowfall winter 1924-25 was 29.6" of which 27.5" fell in Jan! (11.5" fell on Jan 2nd, precip was 1.95" so it looks like a  mixed event) Every other month of winter 1924-25 was a snowfall dud.

This was the most "Janucentric" snowfall winter (93%) of all NYC winters, nearly tied second were recent: 3rd going to 2015-16 (27.9" was 85% of winter's 32.8"), and 2nd to 2021-22 (15.3" was 86% of winter's 17.9"); fourth place goes to 1953-54 (12.7" was 80% of winter's 15.8"). Winters of 1885-86 and 1934-35 as well as 1987-88 were also above 67% for winter snow in Jan. 

I expect winter 2024-25 to be quite active in the central plains, midwest, lower Great Lakes and interior northeast, will probably see relatively average snow totals along coast and frequent winter storms inland. I went a bit above LTA in snowfall contest (saying 32" for NYC) and a total between 25" and 35" would not surprise me. Expect one or two brief severe cold outbreaks and occasional near-record warm spells too. 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Manasquan reservoir now sitting just under 52% capacity 

Amazing that we can have months of rain then two months of lack of rain causes this 

[ForestHillWx]

Strong smell of smoke now. Surprised the Guard hasn’t been called in to assist. 

Temp at 31; colder in the valley it seems, with readings at 27/28. 

[Rjay]

Dropping quickly now. 35

[brooklynwx99]

 

[MJO812]

Still 44 here

My area fucking sucks

Everyone else is in the 20s and 30s.

[BlizzLuv]

We were out near Whitehouse, Clinton and High Bridge, NJ late afternoon today. There was a haze and strong smell of smoke out that way. I swung by Spruce Run Reservoir and water levels are the lowest I have ever seen. I believe it is in the area of 32 or 31 percent capacity, with a record low of 28 and change

 

 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still 44 here

My area fucking sucks

Everyone else is in the 20s and 30s.

Nah its cold here tonight.  Cold and dry = zzzz.

[RedSky]

27F