Brian5671 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Currently 44 here with a gusty wind and lots of strato cu. Looks and feels like November! feels frigid after the mega torch yet it's average for the date.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 12 Author Share Posted November 12 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: feels frigid after the mega torch yet it's average for the date.... Yeah and after this brief cooldown it's right back to +5 to +10 by the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah and after this brief cooldown it's right back to +5 to +10 by the weekend theme of the fall so far cold fronts that take us to normal briefly but there's no hit and hold cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Might be a struggle to get below 32 here now. My forecast low is 25 even with the wind in the write-up, yours looks like 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 surprised no wind advisory today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 The op runs today kind of support my thinking for next week into the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I am hoping the original idea of the retrogression potentially producing a decent storm system and rain which the models lost yesterday turns out to be correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am hoping the original idea of the retrogression potentially producing a decent storm system and rain which the models lost yesterday turns out to be correct. Agreed. That would bring the 2-3 day cold shot afterwards 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agreed. That would bring the 2-3 day cold shot afterwards The wild card would be the details of the hurricane interaction. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 0z and 12z Euro now goes out past 300 hours ! 6z and 18z runs go out to 144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 DROUGHT WARNING coming to NJ statewide tomorrow - governor will likely announce late morning. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 A strong cold shot will deliver the coldest air mass, by far, this fall into the region. The temperature will fall into the 30s tomorrow morning in Central Park. This would rank as the third latest first sub-40° temperature of the season. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consecutive year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996. The temperature will remain in the middle and upper 40s for highs tomorrow and Thursday. A warm front will also slip across the region Thursday. Afterward, it will again turn milder to end the week. A mild and dry weekend is likely. The dry weather will likely continue into at least early next week. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +14.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.278 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Nice cold pattern on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Fire in Bayonne. The smell of smoke that went away is now back. Hooray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Nice cold pattern on gfs Hopefully it moves up in time. Average high for my area for today is 48. Lowest high temperature for the next 10 is 49 on Thursday. Above 50 everyday after. Even our “cold fronts” can’t get us a day below average anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: Hopefully it moves up in time. Average high for my area for today is 48. Lowest high temperature for the next 10 is 49 on Thursday. Above 50 everyday after. Even our “cold fronts” can’t get us a day below average anymore. The source region for these "cold" shots is still Pacific origin, since we can't get a sustained ridge in the West to build up then deliver cold from Canada. It's somewhat modified Pacific air. Any attempt at a ridge gets blasted away by the raging Pacific jet developed from the boiling SSTs east of Japan. Rinse (or not since we're all in a drought aided by said pattern) repeat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Whiteface, Hunter, Belleayre all making snow today. Game on! 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Down to 37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 27 with a hard freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 38 here No freeze yet here this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Looks like 23 with do it for the low here this morning. First teens of the season forecast tonight, we shall see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 22 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Looks like 23 with do it for the low here this morning. First teens of the season forecast tonight, we shall see. Wind never died for me, hit 30 for a few mins. Funny how cold this feels right now though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 3rd latest that NYC dropped under 40° right behind 2022. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1938 04-11 (1938) 33 11-15 (1938) 37 217 2022 04-19 (2022) 39 11-14 (2022) 37 208 1946 04-28 (1946) 37 11-13 (2024) 37 198 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 18 hours ago, FPizz said: My forecast low is 25 even with the wind in the write-up, yours looks like 30 Fail once again. Stopped at 34 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 near 3 sigma block next week likely provides opportunities for storminess... would watch the 5-7 days afterwards for any wintry chances in climo spots like NW NJ and N of 84 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 38 / 20 off a low of 29. Dry and near normal the next few days before warming this weekend and into the forst half of next week. Trough moves through between the 22 and next weekend. Shot at rain and cold into Thanksgiving before moderating. Overall warmer than normal and dry continuing the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 What should become Sara is currently tracked to impact S Florida next week 11/20 - 11/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 If that ULL gets stuck underneath the block it will Probably produce a early season lake event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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