November 2024

[snowman19]

@bluewave Just like the stronger SE ridge/WAR correction on the Atlantic side, the correction to a stronger -PNA and +EPO on the PAC side continues on today’s modeling. Over and over again

[LAVistaNY]

.42 - I’ll take it!

[SACRUS]

Just touched 70 here.

[Brian5671]

Another overperformer here-71 currently.

[Allsnow]

[snowman19]

56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Another overperformer here-71 currently.

Closing in on mid-November and 70’s behind a “cold” front….

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Closing in on mid-November and 70’s behind a “cold” front….

I lived in eastern NC as a kid for a few years...this is their climate....

[FPizz]

Got to 66 here

[North and West]

I just signed back on to kick it back off since March. Were we able to cancel winter before Halloween this year?




.

[Big Jims Videos]

19 minutes ago, North and West said:

I just signed back on to kick it back off since March. Were we able to cancel winter before Halloween this year?




.

you missed nothing except New Jersey is on fire. 

[North and West]

you missed nothing except New Jersey is on fire. 

.

[donsutherland1]

Today will be the warmest day for some time to come. A strong cold shot is likely during the middle of the week. The temperature will very likely fall below 40° during Wednesday morning (November 13th) or perhaps late Tuesday night in Central Park. This would rank as the third or fourth latest first sub-40° temperature. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consecutive year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996.

A few scattered showers will be possible on Thursday as a warm front moves across the region. Afterward, it will again turn milder. A mild weekend is likely.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +4.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.104 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This drought is our new stuck weather pattern until further notice. Big contrast from the wet pattern getting stuck in place year after year. The warmth is the main continuity right now as it continues to overperform as usual.

Thinking we get a good cold shot the weekend before thanksgiving. It won’t have lots of staying power but should be chilly for a few days. These short window cold shots are common in a Nina Enso

[psv88]

69 today 

[North and West]

69 today 

.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:

 

PHL: 74
BLM: 72
ACY: 72
JFK: 71
ISP: 71
EWR: 70
New Brnswck: 69
TEB: 69
LGA: 69
TTN: 69
NYC: 68

[lee59]

69 my high today

[NorthShoreWx]

We had 0.26" rainfall overnight Sunday - Monday.

We had 9" of rainfall August 19 - 20 and a total of 1.43" since.  Rainfall since September 1 is 1.00" even.

September 2024 - 0.21"

October 2024 - 0.52"

November 2024 (through 11/12) - 0.27"

Just imagine if the rainfall since September 1 had all been snow ...

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

69 my high today

Nice.

[Roger Smith]

Not only is 2024 a dry fall, it's a very dry season overall for NYC:

I've listed all 3-month intervals, seasons or not, that fell below 6" total. (fall 2024 only 1.77" so far) ...

 

<<< DRY 3-month intervals at NYC >>>

 

Before 1950 ________________________________________________ Since 1950

 

INTERVAL __________ SEASON? ______ TOTAL PRECIP ______ INTERVAL __________ SEASON? ______ TOTAL PRECIP

Dec 1871-Feb 1872 __ winter __________ 5.41" _______________ May 1954 - Jul 1954 __ -- -- _________ 5.38"

Sep 1879-Nov 1879__ autumn _________ 5.00"_______________ May 1955 - Jul 1955 __ -- -- _________ 5.67"

Apr 1880-Jun 1880 ___ -- --___________ 4.66"________________ Nov 1958 - Jan 1959 _ -- -- _________ 5.44"

Jul 1881 - Sep 1881 ___ -- --___________ 3.08"________________ Dec 1958 - Feb 1959 _ winter _______ 5.28"

Aug 1881 - Oct 1881___ -- --___________ 3.43"________________ Aug 1964 - Oct 1964 __ -- -- ________3.66"

Sep 1881 - Nov 1881__ autumn ________ 4.93"________________ Sep 1964 - Nov 1964 _ autumn _____ 5.97"

Oct 1882 - Dec 1882 _ -- -- ___________ 4.70"________________ Apr 1965 - Jun 1965 __ -- -- _________5.75"

Mar 1885 - May 1885 _ spring _________ 4.95" _______________ May 1965 - Jul 1965 __ -- -- _________4.18"

Apr 1885 - Jun 1885 __ -- -- ___________ 5.37" _______________ Jun 1965 - Aug 1965 __ summer _____5.33"

Aug 1886 - Oct 1886 __ -- -- __________  5.19" ________________ Jul 1965 - Sep 1965 __ -- -- ________ 5.76"

Aug 1892 - Oct 1892 __ -- -- __________  5.81" ________________ Sep 1965 - Nov 1965__ autumn _____ 5.32"

Jun 1894 - Aug 1894 __ summer _______4.36" ________________Oct 1965 - Dec 1965 __ -- -- _________5.38"

Apr 1899 - Jun 1899 __ -- -- ___________ 5.09" ________________Nov 1965 - Jan 1966 __ -- --_________5.85"

Oct 1899 - Dec 1899 __ -- -- ___________5.83" ________________ Jun 1966 - Aug 1966 __summer _____4.31"

Dec 1900 - Feb 1901 __ winter _________ 4.22" ________________ Nov 1976 - Jan 1977 __-- -- _________4.88"

Sep 1901 - Nov 1901 __ autumn ________ 5.76" ________________ Dec 1979 - Feb 1980 __ winter ______ 5.45"

Sep 1908 - Nov 1908__ autumn ________ 4.00" _______________ Nov 1980 - Jan 1981 __ -- -- _________5.27"

Oct 1908 - Dec 1908 __ -- -- ___________ 5.28" _______________ Jan 1985 - Mar 1985 __ -- -- _________5.32"

Sep 1909 - Nov 1909__ autumn ________ 4.67" ________________Feb 1985 - Apr 1985 __ -- -- _________5.83"

Jul 1910 - Sep 1910 __ -- -- ____________2.98" ________________May 1993 - Jul 1993 __ -- -- _________4.75"

Aug 1910 - Oct 1910__ -- -- _____________5.72" _________________Oct 1998 - Dec 1998 __-- -- ________ 5.36"

Sep 1914 - Nov 1914 __ autumn _________5.83"_________________May 1999 - Jul 1999 __ -- -- _________5.07"

Oct 1924 - Dec 1924 __ -- -- ___________ 4.91" ________________ Jun 1999 - Aug 1999 __summer _____3.92"

Apr 1926 - Jun 1926 __ -- -- ___________ 5.86" ________________ Oct 2001 - Dec 2001 __ -- -- ________4.26"

Oct 1928 - Dec 1928 __ -- -- ___________ 5.01" ________________ Nov 2001 - Jan 2002 __ -- -- ________5.53"

Jun 1929 - Aug 1929 __ summer _______ 4.58" ________________ Dec 2001 - Feb 2002 __ winter _____ 4.88"

Jul 1929 - Sep 1929 __ -- -- ____________5.80" _________________Jan 2009 - Mar 2009 __ -- -- _______ 5.66"

Sep 1931 - Nov 1931 __ autumn ________ 4.97" _________________Jan 2012 -  Mar 2012 __ -- -- ________5.56"

Oct 1931 - Dec 1931 __ -- -- ____________5.84" _________________Feb 2012 - Apr 2012 ___ -- -- ________5.89"

Jul 1932 - Sep 1932 __ -- -- ____________5.86" _________________ 

Mar 1935 - May 1935 _ spring _________ 5.06" 

May 1939 - Jul 1939 _ -- -- ____________5.69" 

Nov 1939 - Jan 1940 _ -- -- ___________ 5.40"

Sep 1941 - Nov 1941 __ autumn ________ 5.77"

Oct 1946 - Dec 1946 __ -- -- __________ 4.16"

Aug 1948 - Oct 1948 __ -- -- __________ 5.78"

Sep 1948 - Nov 1948 __ autumn _______5.96"

Oct 1949 - Dec 1949 __ -- -- __________ 5.16"

Nov 1949 - Jan 1950 __ -- -- __________ 5.50"

======================================

Note the frequency of dry 3-month intervals has been declining especially in past 3 decades, two dry months are often now terminated by a faster reversal. It remains to be seen where fall 2024 fits in, but driest 3-month spell so far is 2.98" (July - Sep 1910). 

Seasons in list include

winter 5

spring 2

summer 5

autumn 11

A lot of non-season entries are in the overlaps of summer and autumn. 

Some entries are consecutive indicating dry 4 to 9 month intervals on a similar scale. (1965 has a long string ending Jan 1966)

There are 45 groups of entries indicating dry intervals appear once every 3.5 years. The chances of any case extending to 4 months is one in three, an extension to five months is closer to a 10% chance.

Of course, very dry 90-day intervals can be lost in the data if they begin and end near mid-months and only have two dry months as a base. June 1949 had only .02" rain yet did not come close to making the list. 

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Thinking we get a good cold shot the weekend before thanksgiving. It won’t have lots of staying power but should be chilly for a few days. These short window cold shots are common in a Nina Enso

Yeah, North America will still be very warm with plenty of Pacific air around.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

53 / 32.   Stretch of near normal the rest of this week, with a warmer weekend and into next week.  Overall near to warmer than normal with the dry continuing into next week.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2022)
NYC: 76 (1879)
LGA: 69 (2022)
JFK: 72 (2022)


Lows:

EWR: 25 (2019)
NYC: 25 (2019)
LGA: 27 (2019)
JFK: 25 (2019)

Historical:

 

1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel)

1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum)

1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993 A winter storm moved through the area on November 12th and 13th. A wintry mix of precipitation in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow began during the afternoon on the 12th in western portions of Minnesota, while heavy snow fell in a swath from southwest South Dakota through central and northeast parts of the state, with generally four to eight inches reported. Freezing rain also preceded the snow in south-central South Dakota. Significant accumulation of ice occurred within about a 70-mile wide area from west central Minnesota into the Arrowhead region. Up to five inches of snow fell on top of the ice, making travel extremely hazardous. In South Dakota, locally heavier snowfall amounts included 12 inches at Midland and 10 inches central Hughes County. Several schools and other community events were closed due to the ice and snow. In south central South Dakota, trees were damaged by heavy ice, some of which fell on power lines, causing an outage. Other snowfall amounts include; 8.0 inches in Blunt; 7.0 inches in Murdo and near Victor; and 6.0 inches near Onida, Faulkton, Highmore, and Leola.

2003 - Thunderstorms developed in southern California and produced torrential downpours across parts of the Los Angeles area. More than 5 inches of rain fell in just 2 hours in southern Los Angeles, producing severe urban flooding. Small hail also accompanied the storms, accumulating several inches deep in some areas of the city. Nearly 115,000 electrical customers lost power as the storms affected the area (Associated Press).

[bluewave]

Another day with wind gusts exceeding guidance.

 

Westhampton    SUNNY     53  35  50 NW22G45 

[Allsnow]

Might be a struggle to get below 32 here now. 

[EWR757]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another day with wind gusts exceeding guidance.

 

Westhampton    SUNNY     53  35  50 NW22G45 

Looks like EWR has had a peak wind of 51 mph so far today. 

[Brian5671]

Very gusty here with CAA-temps holding steady

[cleetussnow]

Its precipitating garbage can lids here

[MANDA]

40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very gusty here with CAA-temps holding steady

Currently 44 here with a gusty wind and lots of strato cu.  Looks and feels like November!