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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Normally that’s completely true, but given how this entire fall (really since the end of August) has gone so far, would anyone actually be surprised if that doesn’t work out? 

I don’t think anyone would be surprised if there was a storm and it found a way to miss us which has been happening since around August 20th. Nobody wants to see a fall drought take hold and persist into next spring or summer. The stakes would be much higher this time around than 01-02 or even some 60s years since we have warmed so much since then. 

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think anyone would be surprised if there was a storm and it found a way to miss us which has been happening since around August 20th. Nobody wants to see a fall drought take hold and persist into next spring or summer. The stakes would be much higher this time around than 01-02 or even some 60s years since we have warmed so much since then. 

So the Euro starts running out to 360 hours on Tuesday twice a day.  I guess that means twice as many fantasy storms.  This should be fun.

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37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not going to happen so you are good. 

If you look at the genesis of this system it actually forms in the Caribbean.  It has likely had tropical features initially and probably picks up a name along the way.  GFS really got creative with this one.  FWIW the CFS has popped a few runs with snows in the east however accumulating snow only happens well inland.

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Showers and periods of rain are now overspreading the region. Light rain is falling in parts of the New York City area. Wilmington, DE has seen its first measurable rainfall since September 28th.

Periods of rain are likely overnight into tomorrow. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall is likely. A few showers will be possible on Thursday as a warm front moves across the region.

A strong cold shot is likely during the middle of the week. The temperature will very likely fall below 40° during Wednesday morning (November 13th) or perhaps late Tuesday night in Central Park. This would rank as the third or fourth latest first sub-40° temperature. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consective year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996.

It will again turn milder late in the week or during the following weekend.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +4.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.691 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, Picard said:

Been drizzling on and off all afternoon and evening and barley keeping the ground damp.  Rain tipper still sitting at 0.00"
Looks like it's struggling with dry air.  I'm just hoping that line in PA doesn't dry up and fizzle by the time it reaches us, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Models over the last 24 hours have been getting less impressed, HRRR now has most of us at about 0.2”. Might end up being just a lot of virga with most of us just having the ground wet for a couple hours. 

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