November 2024

[Nibor]

 

Smokey out here looking towards NYC from Jersey City. 

[winterwx21]

The growing season for warm weather vegetables most likely comes to an end here tonight. Good chance we're finally gonna drop a little below freezing. If we escape tonight, then it would very likely happen Tuesday night. Time to say goodbye to my beloved pole lima beans, lol. A little sad but it's definitely time. 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The growing season for warm weather vegetables most likely comes to an end here tonight. Good chance we're finally gonna drop a little below freezing. If we escape tonight, then it would very likely happen Tuesday night. Time to say goodbye to my beloved pole lima beans, lol. A little sad but it's definitely time. 

BTW I forgot about the grass seed I planted a few weeks ago and barely watered. Somehow about a third of it grew

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

19 inches at Denver 

 

 

That’s the benefit of living at such a high elevation even after their warmest September and October by a wide margin.

 

Time Series Summary for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-31	64.5	0
2	2015-10-31	62.8	0
3	1933-10-31	62.5	0
4	1947-10-31	62.2	0
5	2016-10-31	61.8	0
-	1963-10-31	61.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1946	42.6	0
2	1991	29.6	0
3	1983	29.3	0
4	1929	23.1	0
-	1928	23.1	0
5	1908	22.9	0
6	1979	22.3	0
7	1956	21.3	0
8	1992	20.1	0
9	1972	19.4	0
10	2024	18.2	22

[winterwx21]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

BTW I forgot about the grass seed I planted a few weeks ago and barely watered. Somehow about a third of it grew

I guess the very warm weather pattern helped it. 

[MJO812]

Officially 19.3” in Denver!

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Officially 19.3” in Denver!

Hopefully we officially get 19.3 flakes this winter. 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 47 here in the Berks, feeling a bit more seasonable today.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

 

Smokey out here looking towards NYC from Jersey City. 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

The growing season for warm weather vegetables most likely comes to an end here tonight. Good chance we're finally gonna drop a little below freezing. If we escape tonight, then it would very likely happen Tuesday night. Time to say goodbye to my beloved pole lima beans, lol. A little sad but it's definitely time. 

Would be nice to finally drop below 32 here at home. All I have had is some light frost at 34 degrees. This is pretty late for my area not to drop below.

 

 

While I miss the 80 degree weather it finally feels like November today 

[Cfa]

Brush fire in Coram (Suffolk) right now:

[Allsnow]

SITE                 RECORD  RECORD DATES  THRU 11/8
AC Airport (ACY)    34 days  Aug-Sep 1995   37 days
AC Marina (55N)     39 days  Aug-Sep 1995   38 days
Georgetown (GED)    34 days  Oct-Nov 2001   42 days
Philadelphia (PHL)  29 days  Oct-Nov 1874   41 days
Trenton (TTN)       38 days  Apr-May 1903   41 days
Wilmington (ILG)    34 days  Jan-Feb 1909   41 days

 

[Dark Star]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

So far, clear as a bell in Garwood.  The morning air actually smelled clean!

[forkyfork]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least we get some showers Sunday night before most of the rainfall with the system later next week probably misses to our east.

 

 

western troughing claims another coastal storm 

[dWave]

A big increase in haze and smoke smell across the Bronx and Southern Westchester within the last hr or so. I dunno if there is a new fire somewhere?

[SACRUS]

 

Smoke visible from n-nj and nY border

 

 

[steve392]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Smoke visible from n-nj and nY border

 

 

Thickest of that plume is just to my North. Skies are brown. The smell is so strong. Sinuses and eyes are just killing me from it. 

[MJO812]

[Nibor]

 

Can really see the smoke now low on the horizon. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

western troughing claims another coastal storm 

Maybe we can get a storm once the retrogression finishes just after the 20th. 

 

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe we can get a storm once the retrogression finishes just after the 20th. 

 

Probably a artic cold shot around that time 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Probably a artic cold shot around that time 

They are extending the OP Euro to 360 hrs on Tuesday so the 384 hr GFS snowstorms will get some friendly competition.

 

In IFS Cycle 49r1, HRES and the ENS control forecast become scientifically and computationally identical and both are run for 15-days at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, and 6 days at 06 UTC and 18 UTC. The superfluous ENS control forecast will be stopped in a future IFS upgrade, and the data stream currently known as HRES will become known as the “control” forecast.

[nycwinter]

i cannot remember the last time i had to go out carrying a umbrella week after week of dry weather good  for walking though...

[jm1220]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Have to watch that SE ridge position and steepness. We live in a world now where if the NAO block is too south based it can link up with the SE ridge. 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

 

Smokey out here looking towards NYC from Jersey City. 

I smelled the smoke yesterday.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase on tomorrow with periods of rain developing during the evening and continuing into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall is likely. An additional round of rain is possible late next week. Aside from unseasonable warmth, next week will generally see near normal to occasionally somewhat below normal readings.

Today is Philadelphia's 42nd consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 42 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909. Those record streaks will end tomorrow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -2.29 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.691 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Have to watch that SE ridge position and steepness. We live in a world now where if the NAO block is too south based it can link up with the SE ridge. 

We need the west to improve before that will work. Don’t fall for that click bait 

[Roger Smith]

As discussed, absolute dry spell of 29 days earlier was second longest for NYC (1924 longer).

I also have a list of "extended dry spells" where the criterion is an average of .01" per two days, or less. 

On that measure, presently at 41 days in 4th place. An amount of .21" on Sunday would end this spell but it could restart if further rain does not keep pace. 

 

So top ten at present for both types: 

 

____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ______________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______

Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS)

_01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____01 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12)

_02 __ 2024 ___29 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 28 ___ 02 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36)

_03 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 03 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8.)

t04 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 _________ 04 ___ 2024 ___ 41 (.01") __ Sep 30 to Nov 9 (29, 11)

t04 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t05___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11)

t06 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t05___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14)

t06 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________t07 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9)

t06 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___t07 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12)

t09 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t07 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27)

t09 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 ________ t07 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15)

--------------------------------------

The criteria for extended dry spells allow in some rather moderate occasions, and if the criteria were .01" per ten days, only 2 and 4 would qualify (for entire stated periods). Oct 1973 in t24 (29 days .03" same dates as 2024 absolute spell) is next longest interval listed (partial cases might extend also).

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Would be nice to finally drop below 32 here at home. All I have had is some light frost at 34 degrees. This is pretty late for my area not to drop below.

 

 

While I miss the 80 degree weather it finally feels like November today 

Crazy, I would’ve figured your area would’ve hit freezing already too. I’ve been down to 29-31 a few nights already. Pine Barrens gonna radiate I guess. 

[IrishRob17]

Allegedly a forest ranger was killed today at the brush fire in Greenwood Lake. Looking for confirmation.