November 2024

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The gfs had at least 20 feet last year

And it was always 10 days away

[lee59]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Will probably be another great winter for the West. Another defining factor the last few winters at least and no indication that’s changing. 

There were quite a few years where the west was dry and lacking in snowfall in the winter while we had lots of snow and plenty of rain. Now it has changed, I guess that is how you get averages. I just wish it would change back, this is very boring.

[SACRUS]

 

 

71 / 49  , brief cooldown the weekend before warming  up Monday.   

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was another warm day, though quite a bit cooler than yesterday's record warmth. However, parts of the Mid-Atlantic region experienced additional near record and record heat. Daily records included:

Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 81°, 2022)
Norfolk: 80° (old record: 79°, 2022)
Richmond: 85° (old record: 84°, 2022)
Salisbury: 82° (tied record set in 2022)
Sterling: 80° (old record: 79°, 2022 and 2023)
Washington, DC: 84° (old record: 81°, 2022)

In addition, Norfolk's 80° day was its fourth this month. That tied the November record set in 1950 and tied in 1974.

It will turn somewhat cooler for tomorrow, but temperatures will remain well above seasonal norms. The gradual cooldown will continue into the weekend.

Some rain to affect the region Sunday night into Monday. Parts of the region could be in line for 0.25"-0.50" of rain. An additional round of rain is possible late next week.

Today is Philadelphia's 40th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 40 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -11.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.443 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.7° (3.7° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 81 (2022)
NYC: 78 (1938)
LGA: 78 (2022)
JFK: 80 (2022)


Lows:

EWR:  28 (1931)
NYC: 29 (1930)
LGA: 32 (1962)
JFK: 25 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1940 - The Galloping Gertie bridge at Tacoma, WA, collapsed in strong winds resulting in a six million dollar loss, just four months after the grand opening of the new bridge. The winds caused the evenly sized spans of the bridge to begin to vibrate until the central one finally collapsed. From that point on bridges were constructed with spans of varying size. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened on July 1st, 1940, spanned the Puget Sound from Gig Harbor to Tacoma. At the time of the opening, the bridge was the third-longest suspension bridge in the world, covering nearly 6,000 feet. Before the bridge opened, high winds would cause the bridge to move vertically, giving the nickname Galloping Gertie. On this day in 1940, winds of 40 mph caused the bridge to collapse because of the physical phenomenon known as aeroelastic flutter. Click HERE for more information from Scott Sistak from KOMONews.

1951 - At 7 AM a blinding flash, a huge ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton OK by the concussion. (The Weather Channel)

 

1951: At 7 AM, a blinding flash, a massive ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton, Oklahoma, by the concussion.

1957: A historic tornado outbreak impacted southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Ten people were killed.

1986 - An early season blizzard struck the Northern Plains Region. North Dakota took the brunt of the storm with wind gusts to 70 mph, and snowfall totals ranged up to 25 inches at Devils Lake. (Storm Data)

1987 - Heavy snow fell across parts of eastern New York State overnight, with twelve inches reported at the town of Piseco, located in the Mohawk Valley. A storm in the southwestern U.S. left nine inches of snow at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires reduced visibilities to less than a mile at some locations from North Carolina to Ohio and Pennsylvania. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued across the state of Texas. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco and Del Rio with readings of 92 degrees. McAllen was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 96 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Shortly after daybreak strong thunderstorms developed over a narrow, but almost stationary, east-west band across New Orleans, in southeastern Louisiana. As a result, heavy rains persisted over the same area until mid afternoon before tapering off, and triggered flash flooding across a five county area. Eight to twelve inch rains deluged the area between 9 AM and 6 PM, and totals for the 48 hour period ending at 7 AM on the 8th ranged up to 19.78 inches, between Lake Lexy and Lake Borgne. Approximately 6000 homes in the area reported water damage. The rainfall total for November of 19.81 inches at New Orleans was their highest total for any given month of the year. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2011: A powerful storm system moving through the southern Great Plains produced tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas on November 7-8, 2011. The system initially produced numerous thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding over portions of south-central Oklahoma during the late evening of November 6th and early morning of November 7th. Rainfall totals of 5-9 inches were reported across Jefferson, Carter, and Murray counties.

 

2012: A Nor’Easter brought several inches of snow to the Northeast. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches were typical with locally higher amounts.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:

 

ACY: 83
EWR: 78
PHL: 78
JFK: 77
New Brnswck: 76
BLM: 76
TEB: 75
TTN: 75
ISP: 74
NYC: 73
LGA: 73

[SACRUS]

 

Blues 0.50 - 1.00 showing up in the next 7 days

 

[bluewave]

This was the 3rd warmest start to November away from the sea breeze behind 2022 and 2015. While the milder pattern continues, the stronger blocking than originally forecast will prevent any more 80° record warmth. So more modest warm departures than we have experienced since the end of October.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022-11-07	65.4	0
2	2015-11-07	61.3	0
3	2024-11-07	60.7	0
4	1994-11-07	60.5	0
5	1974-11-07	60.1	0

 

[dWave]

Haze and smoke smell spreading into Upper Manhattan and the Bronx from Palasades fire in NJ.

[Allsnow]

Euro around .25 for the area this weekend 

[Allsnow]

Had to turn the heat on in the house this morning 

 

I already miss the 80 degree weather 

[lee59]

Surprised it dropped  to the 30s this morning here

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Had to turn the heat on in the house this morning 

 

I already miss the 80 degree weather 

Maybe we'll get our first 80 in December 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe we'll get our first 80 in December 

Probably before the next 6+ snowstorm 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Euro around .25 for the area this weekend 

The big model test may be where the best rainfall sets up with the cutoff later next week. Hopefully we don’t see too much suppression. But that has been the trend since late August we need to reverse.

 

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big model test may be where the best rainfall sets up with the cutoff later next week. Hopefully we don’t see too much suppression. But that has been the trend since late August we need to reverse.

 

Hints of a cooler regime towards the end of the month but I feel like we have been chasing that carrot every winter 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The big model test may be where the best rainfall sets up with the cutoff later next week. Hopefully we don’t see too much suppression. But that has been the trend since late August we need to reverse.

 

Given how this has gone since late August would anyone actually be surprised if the late next week possibility turns into nothing more than showers? And you know it’s been real bad when we are looking forward to .2-.4 of rain Sun/Mon

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hints of a cooler regime towards the end of the month but I feel like we have been chasing that carrot every winter 

Cooler toward the end of November?!! I damn sure hope so! 

Expect zilch this winter and be thrilled when something can happen. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Cooler toward the end of November?!! I damn sure hope so! 

Expect zilch this winter and be thrilled when something can happen. 

I think collectively everyone’s bar is very low for this winter. I hope to get a surprise or two but if not it won’t be disappointing considering the expectations 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Hints of a cooler regime towards the end of the month but I feel like we have been chasing that carrot every winter 

Once again, as has been the case for the last several years, it’s going to all depend on the Pacific. If that’s crap we are screwed even with a -NAO

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, as has been the case for the last several years, it’s going to all depend on the Pacific. If that’s crap we are screwed even with a -NAO

SST temp map looks terrible-warm water east of Japan, Warm water around OZ and cold water south of Alaska...

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

SST temp map looks terrible-warm water east of Japan, Warm water around OZ and cold water south of Alaska...

Yep, I don’t see any savior coming like a massive NAO block in 20-21 to salvage a decent season. I think we’re largely screwed other than when we can get a lucky couple day period here and there and it can snow. The Pacific as you said is as hostile as can be. That boiling water east of Japan supercharges the Pacific jet and blowtorches the whole continent. 

[psv88]

Remember when we used to get snow flurries in November? Now low 50s is a cool down 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Remember when we used to get snow flurries in November? Now low 50s is a cool down 

12 years ago we had the big post sandy snowstorm

[forkyfork]

now every time we get a greenland block there's a trough from alaska to mexico

 

[psv88]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

12 years ago we had the big post sandy snowstorm

Yea. Pre 2016. The last 8 years we’ve seen nothing like that. Ever since the super nino we have stepped up to a much warmer climate 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea. Pre 2016. The last 8 years we’ve seen nothing like that. Ever since the super nino we have stepped up to a much warmer climate 

We did have November 2018 too

[lee59]

Possibly a much more active pattern starting at the end of next week. I hope.

[Allsnow]

45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We did have November 2018 too

Yup. Huge early season artic high made that possible 

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Possibly a much more active pattern starting at the end of next week. I hope.

Going to have hope so because the models continue to get drier and drier with Sun/Mon