lee59 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Some more stats: since the year 2000 Dulles average DJF 36.6 Central Park DJF 36.4 Islip DJF 34.2 Having spent a lot of time near Dulles, they are generally warmer in the day and colder at night then Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Keep sprinklers on until December? I shut mine off after Saturday morning. Can see the grass isn’t growing much, so no point anymore with sun angle dropping. It’s the latest I’ve kept them running, usually blown out around mid to late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Down to 38 already in Syosset. If clouds hold off frost a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 12 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Down to 38 already in Syosset. If clouds hold off frost a good possibility. Same here but clouds and wind pick up after midnight. We have 5-6 hours to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: For as much climate talk as there has been, remember many of the models assume the Gulf Stream continuing to pump warm waters up the coast and to Europe. With Greenland melting, the Gulf Stream is slowing. If it collapses, then we are going to see a massive change in heat energy distribution. Tons of reports out: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/key-atlantic-current-could-collapse-soon-impacting-the-entire-world-for-centuries-to-come-leading-climate-scientists-warn. But you can also read the academic journals about it as well. It is fascinating, but terrifying. Mostly a myth. The Gulf Stream is not a significant factor in the climate of Western Europe. Europe has a mild climate because it is an oceanic climate, and atmospheric wave trains (dictated largely by topography and continental location). The same phenomenon is noted on the west coast of North America where cold currents are present. There would probably be a modest cooling more than offset by radiative warming. In any event, it is unlikely to come to a halt anytime soon. I think some people like to talk about this because they think it might save winter. Sorry not happening. An AMOC slowdown is just going to concentrate even more heat off the coast of eastern North America, and lead to even more warming. https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/#:~:text=The Gulf Stream Myth&text=A few times a year,coming years or even stop. https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/will-the-gulf-stream-really-shut-down/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 24 minutes ago, psv88 said: Same here but clouds and wind pick up after midnight. We have 5-6 hours to do it Here also below 40. Maybe frost before midnight and gone by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Brookhaven National Labs already down to 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 8 minutes ago, lee59 said: Brookhaven National Labs already down to 32 Down to 36 here now, coldest this fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Wide range of temperatures this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 12 minutes ago, lee59 said: Wide range of temperatures this evening. I'm seeing a 28 out on eastern LI, per Rutgers, while midtown is showing 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Down to 37 Tropical storm possible in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 34… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 44 here in se Bergen County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 35 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 33.1! Almost there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Mostly a myth. The Gulf Stream is not a significant factor in the climate of Western Europe. Europe has a mild climate because it is an oceanic climate, and atmospheric wave trains (dictated largely by topography and continental location). The same phenomenon is noted on the west coast of North America where cold currents are present. There would probably be a modest cooling more than offset by radiative warming. In any event, it is unlikely to come to a halt anytime soon. I think some people like to talk about this because they think it might save winter. Sorry not happening. An AMOC slowdown is just going to concentrate even more heat off the coast of eastern North America, and lead to even more warming. https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/#:~:text=The Gulf Stream Myth&text=A few times a year,coming years or even stop. https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/will-the-gulf-stream-really-shut-down/ None of these are truly peer reviewed. I honestly think it is incredibly naive to suggest that the ocean currents do little to climate distribution around the world. Study after study shows the massive amount of warmth the oceans have absorbed to “buffer” out what we have done. And I’m not saying we would cool off if the Gulf Stream slows or stops. Much the opposite in our side of the pond. But for awhile we would see more heat accumulate in the tropics with stronger storms able to develop. Of course we’d see corals bleaching and more horrible effects. Plus we’d still be warming. I don’t think anyone is thinking there will be an ice age. Thermal expansion of the oceans is one of drivers as well with sea level rise. Point I was trying to make is our current models are based on current atmospheric and oceanic inputs. We are human and even when we think we know all the variables we are often shown that we didn’t. But we continue to learn. So I for one am quite worried about a slow down and the ecological impacts that could have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Down to 46 at my station in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Growing season over, 32 and dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 34 now. Mid 70s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: 34 now. Mid 70s tomorrow. tomorrow is monday around 60 for a high.. did you forget to set you clock back last night? it is 11:40 pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: tomorrow is monday around 60 for a high.. did you forget to set you clock back last night? it is 11:40 pm... Lol you're right and no I just got the days wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Already at 30 this evening. Been dropping pretty fast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 With respect to the AMOC, we just don’t know enough yet regarding the effects of a switch to the slower, more southerly configuration in the modern interstadial climate. We know what happened during the Younger Dryas in terms of climate shifts, but things are different today. It’s very much a “pick your source” thing right now. There are good papers showing a 1-2C drop along the US East Coast and as much as 5-6C drop up in Scandinavia, and there are papers that confine the cooling to Scandinavia and broil the East Coast. There are new papers from 2023/24 showing a “restructured” northern branch of the AMOC (“shutdown”) is possible as early as a few years to a couple decades, with increasing likelihood from then on. We don’t know enough yet, but we’re learning fast. Would be foolhardy to assume A) it won’t happen anytime soon and B - precisely what the effects will or will not be. Models often significantly under or overestimate various factors as we see on a weekly basis here with just basic forecasting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Places like ISP missed their first freeze getting down to 34°. So they have a shot at one of the latest first freezes on record since there won’t be much cold around next few weeks. The latest on record occurred on 11-15-22. Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022 03-30 (2022) 25 11-15 (2022) 29 229 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Places like ISP missed their first freeze getting down to 34°. So they have a shot at one of the latest first freezes on record since there won’t be much cold around next few weeks. The latest on record occurred on 11-15-22. Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022 03-30 (2022) 25 11-15 (2022) 29 229 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224 If the ensembles are correct this pattern lasts right through Thanksgiving. This is a very stable, feedback pattern we are in and have been in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Only 35 here last night before clouds moved in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the ensembles are correct this pattern lasts right through Thanksgiving. This is a very stable, feedback pattern we are in and have been in The signal is so strong for warmth that all the guidance sees it pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 15 hours ago, qg_omega said: Keep sprinklers on until December? Mine is one now haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the ensembles are correct this pattern lasts right through Thanksgiving. This is a very stable, feedback pattern we are in and have been in 01-02/11-12 type vibes creeping in...that was a stable pattern outside of 10 days in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Places like ISP missed their first freeze getting down to 34°. So they have a shot at one of the latest first freezes on record since there won’t be much cold around next few weeks. The latest on record occurred on 11-15-22. Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022 03-30 (2022) 25 11-15 (2022) 29 229 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224 Made down to 30 here and I was below freezing most of the night. Most areas north of the LIE in Suffolk had a long freeze last night. Most of Nassau and southern Suffolk, west of the forks, did not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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