the_other_guy Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the new EPS is correct we go into a torch-a-rama pattern come mid-month. Massive -PNA trough into the west, +NAO, +AO, +EPO and the SE ridge goes bonkers we are already torching. not gonna get more of a torch than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the new EPS is correct we go into a torch-a-rama pattern come mid-month. Massive -PNA trough into the west, +NAO, +AO, +EPO and the SE ridge goes bonkers Let's get some 100s 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Numerous local stations set a new monthly maximum temperature for the entire month of November or tied the old max yesterday. This is our first new monthly max since the mid 90s in October 2019. Luckily this wasn’t during July since there would have been widespread 100s. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 82 29 2 2022 80 0 - 1950 80 1 3 1993 77 0 - 1982 77 0 - 1975 77 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 79 29 2 2003 78 0 - 1974 78 0 3 1993 77 1 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 81 29 2 2022 79 0 3 1993 78 0 - 1975 78 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 80 29 - 2022 80 0 3 1990 78 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 83 29 2 2003 82 0 - 1950 82 0 3 2020 80 0 - 1982 80 0 - 1974 80 0 - 1948 80 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 79 29 2 2003 78 0 3 2020 77 0 4 2022 76 2 - 2015 76 0 - 2001 76 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Let's get some 100s Need to get the old winter regimes back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 15 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the new EPS is correct we go into a torch-a-rama pattern come mid-month. Massive -PNA trough into the west, +NAO, +AO, +EPO and the SE ridge goes bonkers Crazy. Do you think there will be a flip in December before January / Feb likely goes very warm again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Need to get the old winter regimes back. Maybe when the PDO and AMO flip? Thinking our best chances may be the back end of this decade, especially if the PDO begins to flip in the next two years or so as I’ve seen some suggestion of. No way of knowing yet though, of course. I think we need to see that intense marine heatwave off Japan calm down first. In hindsight I’m trying to stay positive that I’ve been relatively lucky so far this decade given how abysmal things have been. Eked out more snow than Boston last year, had an epic storm in 2022 here, and 2021 was pretty great even if not the best down at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 From 80 to frost advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: Maybe when the PDO and AMO flip? Thinking our best chances may be the back end of this decade, especially if the PDO begins to flip in the next two years or so as I’ve seen some suggestion of. No way of knowing yet though, of course. I think we need to see that intense marine heatwave off Japan calm down first. The -pdo for years now has really hurt us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 48 / 35 off a low of 41 and a previous high of 82. Cooler 3 days (Sat - Mon) 60s today, cooler Sunday, back to 60s monday. Tue - Thu warmer near / low 80s (Tue and Wed) a touch cooler Thu with low 70s. Cooler by the 8th/9th before warming the 11th. Overall warmer than normal (some strong positives and near normal splits) with dry continuing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Approaching the end of 6 weeks into 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Ridge pulse by the 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 18 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Crazy. Do you think there will be a flip in December before January / Feb likely goes very warm again? There may be a brief, transient period with the tropical forcing? But overall? No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The -pdo for years now has really hurt us That has to flip. Maybe it will eventually, nothing stays permanent. Hell we thought the Pacific heat ridge near Alaska/West Coast would stick in the 2010s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: From 80 to frost advisory Of course not NYC. Horrible. I'm in Rhode Island for the weekend so I will finally experience some chill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 My Winter Outlook Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar: Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: NAO: Positive AO: Positive PNA: Negative/RNA EPO: Positive WPO: Neutral PDO: Strongly negative AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower QBO: Strongly positive Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): +2 - +4 Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season* Main analog: 2001-2002 Reasoning: Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3), Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6) NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Central Park. Are they using the weather station as a laboratory?https://www.foxweather.com/watch/play-59f280d700001a6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 46 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My Winter Outlook Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar: Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: NAO: Positive AO: Positive PNA: Negative/RNA EPO: Positive WPO: Neutral PDO: Strongly negative AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower QBO: Strongly positive Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): +2 - +4 Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season* Main analog: 2001-2002 Reasoning: Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3) , Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6) NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks Onto winter 2030 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 2 Author Share Posted November 2 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Onto winter 2030 Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1950) NYC: 83 (1950) LGA: 83 (1950) JFK: 74 (1974) Lows: EWR: 29 (1976) NYC: 30 (1887) LGA: 29 (1965) JFK: 31 (1965) Historical: 1743: Benjamin Franklin's "eclipse hurricane" unlocked the key to storm movement. A rainstorm prevented Ben Franklin from viewing a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, but his brother in Boston saw it, though the rain began an hour later. 1946: A tornado hit Washington in Hempstead County in Arkansas, killing one. 1946 - A heavy wet snow began to cover the Southern Rockies. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, and a 31 inch snow at Denver CO caused roofs to collapse. (David Ludlum) 1961 - The temperature at Atlanta, GA, reached 84 degrees to establish a record for November. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - A storm brought 18 inches of snow to Celia KY in 24 hours. It tied the state 24 hour snowfall record first established at Bowling Green. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A dozen cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 83 degrees at Paducah KY and 84 degrees at Memphis TN. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as southern Lower Michigan. Showers and thundershowers over southern Florida, associated with a tropical depression, produced 4.77 inches of rain at Tavernier, located in the Upper Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A very intense low pressure system brought heavy rain, snow, and high winds, to parts of the northeastern U.S. Portland ME established a record for November with 4.52 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds along the coast of Maine gusted to 74 mph at Southwest Harbor. Heavy snow blanketed parts of northern Vermont and upstate New York, with 15 inches reported at Spruce Hill NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls in the Upper Great Lakes Region the first three days of the month buried Ironwood MI under 46 inches of snow, and produced 40 inches at Hurley WI. Arctic cold invaded the Southern Plains Region. Midland TX reported a record low of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: Another infamous November Great Lakes Storm brought windy conditions to Minnesota's Lake Superior shoreline. 70 mph winds caused waves to crash over 130-foot walls along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 59 feels chilly today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That has to flip. Maybe it will eventually, nothing stays permanent. Hell we thought the Pacific heat ridge near Alaska/West Coast would stick in the 2010s. Yeah, so much for the Cali perma drought that was talked about ad nauseam on this site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: The -pdo for years now has really hurt us It’s gone way beyond the -PDO. That’s why we never saw this type of sustained warmth for 9 straight winters before. This recent paper discusses the historic rise in the SSTs from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians. Plus the subtropical Atlantic has warmed far beyond any past +AMO periods. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078 The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable. In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: My Winter Outlook Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar: Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: NAO: Positive AO: Positive PNA: Negative/RNA EPO: Positive WPO: Neutral PDO: Strongly negative AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower QBO: Strongly positive Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): +2 - +4 Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season* Main analog: 2001-2002 Reasoning: Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3), Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6) NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks My winter forecast: What Snowman19 said... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: My winter forecast: What Snowman19 said... I whipped up a little forecast myself. Came up with 20 inches swag guess on snow and +1.9 on temps, figuring a weak nina will give us a coupla shots at snow we haven’t seen in awhile. This is for central pork. And yeah I said pork. Mostly porked for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: There may be a brief, transient period with the tropical forcing? But overall? No You skew warm though. So I have to view your forecast through that lens. I dont necessarily disagree with your forecast, but it is important to mention you are the first to yell torch often to exaggeration Just like MJO skews cold. You get to know the posters on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 A cooler air mass covers the region. Tomorrow will see highs top out in the middle 50s. Lows in New York City will be in the lower 40s with 30s outside the City. Frost is likely outside New York City, as well. Afterward, a warming trend will commence. Tuesday and Wednesday could be very warm days with some locations challenging or breaking records on Wednesday. Today is Philadelphia's 35th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 35 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -9.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.449 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 22 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: You skew warm though. So I have to view your forecast through that lens. I dont necessarily disagree with your forecast, but it is important to mention you are the first to yell torch often to exaggeration Just like MJO skews cold. You get to know the posters on here. you haven't had a month with a negative departure since a year ago 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you haven't had a month with a negative departure since a year ago So what? And what have you had? An iceberg? Yelling torch and going +4 on 11/1 for a winter forecast skews warm to me While he may skew warm, and MJO cold, you just skew miserable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: So what? And what have you had? An iceberg? Yelling torch and going +4 on 11/1 for a winter forecast skews warm to me While he may skew warm, and MJO cold, you just skew miserable we haven't had a cold winter in a decade 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 16 minutes ago, wxisfun said: It's like people on this board forget that AGW is 100% real and ramping up, kinda funny tbh. If anything, I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - + 4 this winter busts too cold given the rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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