November Medium/ Long Range

[WVclimo]

11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Ok FWIW. Joe Bastardi is claiming  that there is no lanina...  any truth to this. And if  Joe is right then   the winter could look much different  then originally  thought..    just my opinion.. maybe someone with alot more knowledge  of the enso  patterns could chime in

Latest CPC update from last week said ENSO-neutral now with a Nina forecasted to be weak for the winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[WEATHER53]

Weak ones generally have good cold shots 

[nj2va]

Heyooooo

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
225 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-190330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0009.241121T1800Z-241124T0000Z/
Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western
Pendleton-
225 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches are possible with locally higher amounts along the
  ridgetops. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland
  County. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and
  Western Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile at times due to
  falling and blowing snow. This may lead to whiteout conditions and
  may make travel difficult. The strong winds and weight of snow on
  tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power
  outages.

[NorthArlington101]

15z GFS seems to be on board with a more robust evolution. Looking good and ~72 hours away. Turn in that PTO form. 

Think I might’ve made myself too important and have to work at least half of Friday. I’ll assess a Friday evening overnighter!

[Ji]

Epic 18z gfs run ahead.

[Solution Man]

24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Weak ones generally have good cold shots 

We do pretty good with weak

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think I might’ve made myself too important and have to work at least half of Friday. I’ll assess a Friday evening overnighter!

You can tell your employer that you have come down with a "sickness" and be completely truthful: snow sickness.

[peribonca]

Well the 18z GFS was pretty epic. Multiple shots of snow and more to come

[brooklynwx99]

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important

when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec

when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result

therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

Epic 18z gfs run ahead.

I’d take that and call it a winter…white Friday on Black Friday.  254hrs.  It’s practically here

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’d take that and call it a winter…white Friday on Black Friday.  254hrs.  It’s practically here

Wow. That was weather porn. That run also crushes the spot I'm headed to in WV this weekend. 

[clskinsfan]

I am feeling pretty confident that a lot of us will see our first flakes later this week. One storm at a time for me going forward. 

[Solution Man]

6 members in forum now will expand to 200 by weeks end if we continue this path.

[winter_warlock]

It's. Long range so I don't put alot of stock in it. And I take it with a grain of salt!! but still nice to see for thanksgiving!! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 hours ago, Solution Man said:

We do pretty good with weak

Except for 2016-2017

[NorthArlington101]

GFS wants mood flakes for northern MD folks on Friday. Helps crank the mountain snow a bit more, too.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Actually some pretty nice precip with the cutoff storm system Thurs-Fri for northern MD.. something like 0.25" on the 0z gfs with borderline temps. I doubt it accumulates to much, but not ruling some snow out for me and psuhoffman. 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS wants mood flakes for northern MD folks on Friday. Helps crank the mountain snow a bit more, too.

Driving out around 3p Friday, crossing into the county on 68 should be night/day from Frostburg. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

It's. Long range so I don't put alot of stock in it. And I take it with a grain of salt!! but still nice to see for thanksgiving!! 

Hey at this point I'd just be happy to see it just be cold for Thanksgiving...the bar is so low, haha

[NorthArlington101]

Verbatim 06z Euro drops a few inches in favored spots Friday morning. Gets flakes down to DC.

It’s been a subtle trend in that direction starting with yesterday’s runs but maybe we can get lucky and have it continue.