Ji Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 WB 18Z GFS in long range...it is just one run at range, but we just can't underestimate the SER anymore...models just can't handle it.Why post about it if the models can’t handle it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Hey guys. FWIW from weather bell. European long range has a major arctic intrusion coming..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 18, 2024 Author Share Posted November 18, 2024 WB 18Z GEFS looks much better than the GFS, but still not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Hey guys. FWIW from weather bell. European long range has a major arctic intrusion coming..... This is the ML guidance, which is good to see, but not the operational. The trajectory for getting colder end of month has legs, but when and magnitude will be question marks for the next 3-5 days before the guidance gets a better handle on the upper level evolution. Still some moving parts. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Am I the only one worried about a change first of Dec/late Nov means a warm Christmas week? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS looks much better than the GFS, but still not cold enough. Gfs ensembles us a start in the right direction. And it's much better looking then the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is the ML guidance, which is good to see, but not the operational. The trajectory for getting colder end of month has legs, but when and magnitude will be question marks for the next 3-5 days before the guidance gets a better handle on the upper level evolution. Still some moving parts. Ahhh ok point taken ty bro!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Gfs ensembles us a start in the right direction. And it's much better looking then the GFS Exactly… 5 day mean for day 11-16 looks potentially workable. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS looks much better than the GFS, but still not cold enough. Control is a convoluted mess . Parks a monster HP over the Aleutians. Definitely don't want that ! ( want that over Alska and bridge over ) Has a weird west to east PV across North Central Canada that looks to have a 1000 mph Jet south of it, lol . A big Southern Rockies Storm that looks pretty cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Exactly… 5 day mean for day 11-16 looks potentially workable. Now that looks very promising!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Now that looks very promising!!! Yeah, that looks like a SE stretching Vortex moving toward Hudson's. That can funnel some cpf. If that came to fruition and we bridge over the Top we could be in business for sure . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, that looks like a SE stretching Vortex moving toward Hudson's. That can funnel some cpf. If that came to fruition and we bridge over the Top we could be in business for sure . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 57 minutes ago, Ji said: Why post about it if the models can’t handle it? Well I can see posting it if it's a possibility.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 26 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Am I the only one worried about a change first of Dec/late Nov means a warm Christmas week? Modeling can't even nail down 1 week out let alone next mo th lol I'd just wait and see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 47 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Am I the only one worried about a change first of Dec/late Nov means a warm Christmas week? Not having my first flakes out here by Nov 15th usually means a back loaded winter. Clearly nothing scientific about it. But it is rare to not have some flakes by that date here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Not having my first flakes out here by Nov 15th usually means a back loaded winter. Clearly nothing scientific about it. But it is rare to not have some flakes by that date here. Seeing flakes in the forecast for Thursday Night.. we shall see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Seeing Mongolian high pressure for first time in years. That can get the best cold to us 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 55 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: we all know the old saying - "as Ulon Bator goes so goes DCA" Usually 8-10 days away if underway from up and over there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 3 hours ago, Deck Pic said: we all know the old saying - "as Ulon Bator goes so goes DCA" Is he related to Master?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Seeing Mongolian high pressure for first time in years. That can get the best cold to us makes sense with more AAM expected, prob can temper-pna a bit for dec 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 11 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Nov/Dec have been tough going lately here in UHI hell. They used to be more exciting. Here are my last five 1"+ events in Nov/Dec in reverse chron. That's right. Five early season 1" events in 14 years. Of course some of my 0.25"'s might have been 3-6" storms for Carroll/Jeff/Fred It would be nice to chase something even if it's just 1-3" for the city 12/16/20 - 1.0" 11/15/18 - 2.0" 12/9/17 - 2.25" 12/8/13 - 1.0" 12/16/10: 1.5" Well this is a depressing but good summary. I moved inside the beltway (from PA) in December 2010 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Looking more and more likely we can all have a picnic for Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Looking more and more likely we can all have a picnic for Thanksgiving Yeah...50s with showers seems like perfect picnic weather! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: Looking more and more likely we can all have a picnic for Thanksgiving In DC Thanksgiving is forecasted to be 13 degrees colder than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Yeah but it's 71 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 EURO seems to suggest rain/snow showers Thursday night, which tracks with the NWS. Mountains still look to get a foot over a few days… very tempting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO seems to suggest rain/snow showers Thursday night, which tracks with the NWS. Mountains still look to get a foot over a few days… very tempting. 15z GFS seems to be on board with a more robust evolution. Looking good and ~72 hours away. Turn in that PTO form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Ok FWIW. Joe Bastardi is claiming that there is no lanina... any truth to this. And if Joe is right then the winter could look much different then originally thought.. just my opinion.. maybe someone with alot more knowledge of the enso patterns could chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok FWIW. Joe Bastardi is claiming that there is no lanina... any truth to this. And if Joe is right then the winter could look much different then originally thought.. just my opinion.. maybe someone with alot more knowledge of the enso patterns could chime in Latest CPC update from last week said ENSO-neutral now with a Nina forecasted to be weak for the winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18, 2024 Share Posted November 18, 2024 Weak ones generally have good cold shots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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