November Medium/ Long Range

[NorthArlington101]

Casual 3 feet near the MD/WV border. Ski season would start with a boom

[JenkinsJinkies]

So no can kick? Thanksgiving pattern flip is still on?

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So no can kick? Thanksgiving pattern flip is still on?

There is still time! LOL! At this point we have pretty high confidence next weekend will get colder and windy. Western slopes in WV/MD have a good possibility of warned snow (maybe the B word, but we would need to see how things pan out!) -

As of now, models show it relaxing Thanksgiving week, so normal temps look like they will return... BUT that is all model talk. I think we need some run consistency beyond next weekend.... but I do not think the pattern supports sustained colder conditions. People with better credentials can confirm. In general though, I do not see a blowtorch in the extended. BUT, that can change too! LOL

 

 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So no can kick? Thanksgiving pattern flip is still on?

Sort of.  Big low late next week looks locked in, although details and timing still uncertain. However it doesn't look like it will incorporate a strong feed of true polar air anymore.  So seems like we moderate for a few days probably around Thanksgiving itself.  But ensembles and op runs too are suggesting another push of cold air late in the holiday weekend perhaps.  That's 2 weeks away though so take with salt.

[IronTy]

We're setting the stage for another IronTy play-by-play epic winter outing.  Hopefully this one won't be as bad as the -30F Christmas winter campout two years ago.  

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

We're setting the stage for another IronTy play-by-play epic winter outing.  Hopefully this one won't be as bad as the -30F Christmas winter campout two years ago.  

Heck yeah !!!

[CAPE]

There could be a sneaky chance for something in early Dec. As advertised, there is a bit of a PNA ridge, -NAO with lower heights east of the Canadian Maritimes, surface HP in a good spot with below avg temps, and indications of a southern wave moving eastward.

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There could be a sneaky chance for something in early Dec. As advertised, there is a bit of a PNA ridge, -NAO with lower heights east of the Canadian Maritimes, surface HP in a good spot with below avg temps, and indications of a southern wave moving eastward.

If it doesn't work out do you think there will be a what went wrong write up?

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

If it doesn't work out do you think there will be a what went wrong write up?

The 'what went wrong' would likely be more of the same- every chance for precip fizzles in the short to medium range and we stay parched.

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 'what went wrong' would likely be more of the same- every chance for precip fizzles in the short to medium range and we stay parched.

Or just not cold enough. I agree there’s a chance as depicted, and if it does happen it would be an extra bonus.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

If it doesn't work out do you think there will be a what went wrong write up?

PNA underperforms, trough moves into the west coast. Wave cuts west, antecedent airmass was barely climo anyway. T-0.2” rain area wide. 

Rinse, repeat until April.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Or just not cold enough. I agree there’s a chance as depicted, and if it does happen it would be an extra bonus.

Yeah the beginning of the month is a little early for the lowlands, but we have had streaks in the past that produced frozen the first week of December. Something to keep an eye on outside of hopefully some rain for us and the upslope snow potential for the highlands late next week. I might head out there Thanksgiving week, so hoping they get dumped on and it stays cold enough for there to still be decent snow cover.

[Weather Will]

Through the end of the month looks like boring weather east of the mountains.  Decent chance of mountain snow the end of the upcoming week with a brief cold shot.  Cooler weather potentially again as we go into early December.  WB 0Z EPS.

[Eskimo Joe]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

PNA underperforms, trough moves into the west coast. Wave cuts west, antecedent airmass was barely climo anyway. T-0.2” rain area wide. 

Rinse, repeat until April.

Sounds like a good winter forecast for these parts.

[nj2va]

Giddy giddy

Heading up into the mountains, guidance continues to favor a multi-
day period of snow showers along the Allegheny Front. The initial
activity through Wednesday night will be comprised of rain showers.
However, rapid cooling of the column ensues as the cold upper low
tracks overhead. Strong ascent combined with favorable orographic
effects should yield ample opportunity for moderate to heavy
snow showers, particularly on Thursday into Friday. The snow
combined with the blustery winds may lead to significant
reductions in visibility and hazardous travel conditions.
Continue to monitor the latest forecast at weather.gov/lwx.
Heading into the weekend, upslope snow showers likely persist
given cyclonic flow aloft persists. This would add to any
snowpack already on the ground. From Thursday onward, daily
highs largely stay in the low to mid 30s, accompanied by low
temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s.

[CAPE]

Verbatim a bit of snow this period. Sneaky.

[JenkinsJinkies]

So if PSU gets an inch of snow before December 1st the bust predictions the the snowfall contest will probably be the losers.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

PNA underperforms, trough moves into the west coast. Wave cuts west, antecedent airmass was barely climo anyway. T-0.2” rain area wide. 

Rinse, repeat until April.

Summary of summary: -PDO (although I know there are various elements and blaming one sigular thing isn't the best science--but by perception that has become the main villain of the last 8-9 years!

[WxUSAF]

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Verbatim a bit of snow this period. Sneaky.

EPS looks pretty good for this period as well. Better over the pole, less intense eastern trough and 50/50 area though. 

[DarkSharkWX]

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS at Day 5-6....

[NorthArlington101]

Nice to see an active looking LR… and MR for those eyeing an early season mountain chase. Could almost make one think we might see snow this December

[nj2va]

I’m getting excited for the Friday/Saturday as that’s a pretty classic setup for a good upslope event, especially as energy rotates around the ULL through the mountains.  

[frd]

Trends continue for the late month transition to much colder, and possibly active as well. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Yeah that’s a nice look after thanksgiving on the eps. Now we see if these type of looks persist as we get closer in time. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

I’m getting excited for the Friday/Saturday as that’s a pretty classic setup for a good upslope event, especially as energy rotates around the ULL through the mountains.  

Yeah. Most Models almost completely show it's moisture drained in the Plains and Midwest as it hits the block and then slides SE. I've saw that played out before and almost always there's more QPF in the Apps than what's advertised. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Trends continue for the late month transition to much colder, and possibly active as well. 

 

 

That's a nice setup. Pig SER squashed and maybe a semblence of a STJ . SE moving Disturbances ( could we say Clippers as well) along the Polar Jet with possible phasing with what disturbances may ride the low road with blocking mitigating cutting. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS in long range...it is just one run at range, but we just can't underestimate the SER anymore...models just can't handle it.

[Weather Will]

Good news is that the WB 18Z GFS still has the mountain snow for late week...

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS in long range...it is just one run at range, but we just can't underestimate the SER anymore...models just can't handle it.

Not surprised.  It'll Probably throw out every possible option for several days.