November Medium/ Long Range

[psuhoffman]

On 10/29/2024 at 9:49 AM, Bob Chill said:

The marine heatwave near Japan is wild. Mt Fuji is still brown (or was recently) breaking a 100+ year record. The way we've looked at things for many years, the pdo in its current state is a pretty easy winter cancel feature. I don't disagree much. But the extent and departure from normal is so great, my gut is telling me that it will cause an anomalous surprise downstream (somewhere).

Conventional LR forecasting of the winter hemispheric LW pattern hasn't been working well with man or machine over the last handful of years. Things just aren't lining up and unexpected things keep overwhelming.

So what's it going to be this year? Classic warm east/snow dud nina or something nobody can predict that surprises people? Time will tell. I'm feeling a positive surprise and I'll go down with the ship at this point.  That said, positive surprise doesn't mean 13-14 walking in the door imo lol. More like active enough and cold enough at times to satisfy those who expect a classic dud. Something like that. 

My gut says the PDO (and there are various components to that) has been driving this bus recently and much of the forecast failures have been that other dominant predictors are not having much impacting in muting it.  It's possible that having this off the charts PDO (as well as a pretty anomalous QBO) could lead to something extreme breaking our way. We're in uncharted territory.  But personally I fear the "extreme" event it could lead to would be a ridiculously warm dry snowless winter that makes even some of the recent dreg seem like a 1960's winter.  I was actually more optimistic a month ago than I am right now, and I wasn't very optimistic then!  

 

That said, I don't have a crystal ball and I hope you are right.  And we always could get something like 2000, its actually one of the analogs right now, and it was also a warm dry fall, and for the most part the winter pattern was also god awful...but we got an amazing 7 day period and so it's remembered as a good winter.  In reality we just got lucky during the one week all winter that had any chance at all of snowing.  But that can happen any winter.  We've had some years go the other way, where we probably should have done better than we did based on the predominant pattern but got unlucky.  I'm starting to think our best chance is simply to hope we get lucky and fluke our way to some snow with one or two decent anomaly periods within an overall crap winter.  I highly doubt this ends up a winter where we have weeks and weeks on end of a favorable pattern to work with.  We have to hope we maximize the few opportunities we get imo.  And I am not at all qualified to say if we will or not.  Most of what I do is simply identify probabilities based on data.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

I’m hearing some of the ensembles are having the ridge firmly locked in place for the first half of November…

 

Why is it that every time it looks like it’s going to fade it injects steroids?

[CAPE]

Mostly warm and continued dry for the next 10 days at least as it looks now. Maybe a shot at some light rain around the 10th per some guidance. Way out there and no signs at all of a drought buster. If warmish and continued dry is your vibe, you love to see it. Enjoy. For those who want to see cool weather and maybe some actual rain, it's a continuation of shit the blinds. Reevaluate towards mid Nov.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Mostly warm and continued dry for the next 10 days at least as it looks now. Maybe a shot at some light rain around the 10th per some guidance. Way out there and no signs at all of a drought buster. If warmish and continued dry is your vibe, you love to see it. Enjoy. For those who want to see cool weather and maybe some actual rain, it's a continuation of shit the blinds. Reevaluate towards mid Nov.

Then in mid November we’ll be saying the exact same thing and eyeing December for a pattern change…

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS.... more of the same through mid month, mild and dry.

[BristowWx]

maybe...glass half full...this is good...mild dry through mid month and then switch it up toward turkey day...so we can wear sweaters.  even in the worst patterns we get cold periods.  cold rain is a win in these lean times.  

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

maybe...glass half full...this is good...mild dry through mid month and then switch it up toward turkey day...so we can wear sweaters.  even in the worst patterns we get cold periods.  cold rain is a win in these lean times.  

FWIW, I feel like the last several years we’ve had good November patterns that we hope recycle in winter. And they mostly don’t. So maybe the dry torch pattern won’t recycle in winter this time?? 

[Benjamn3]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

FWIW, I feel like the last several years we’ve had good November patterns that we hope recycle in winter. And they mostly don’t. So maybe the dry torch pattern won’t recycle in winter this time?? 

To quote game of thrones lolol

“Oh, my sweet summer child”

[IronTy]

I asked chatgpt what it thought about November to Surrender and it responded

 

November Surrender

November stirs in strange disguise,
as amber leaves brush summer skies.
Where frost should cling to dawn’s soft breath,
a warmer wind denies its death.

Bare trees wear gold but hold their green,
caught in a warmth they’ve rarely seen.
Sun lingers where the chill should play,
and summer whispers: “I’ll not stray.”

Sweaters lie folded, waiting still,
as balmy airs defy the chill.
Scarves and coats stay packed away,
while autumn yields to skies of May.

November leans on summer's shoulder,
its crisp edge softened, growing bolder.
So let it be—a strange delight—
to hold this warmth through autumn’s flight.

[JenkinsJinkies]

50 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I asked chatgpt what it thought about November to Surrender and it responded

 

November Surrender

November stirs in strange disguise,
as amber leaves brush summer skies.
Where frost should cling to dawn’s soft breath,
a warmer wind denies its death.

Bare trees wear gold but hold their green,
caught in a warmth they’ve rarely seen.
Sun lingers where the chill should play,
and summer whispers: “I’ll not stray.”

Sweaters lie folded, waiting still,
as balmy airs defy the chill.
Scarves and coats stay packed away,
while autumn yields to skies of May.

November leans on summer's shoulder,
its crisp edge softened, growing bolder.
So let it be—a strange delight—
to hold this warmth through autumn’s flight.

Are you sure that was ChatGPT and you didn't secretly commission Brian Griffin to write a poem?

[Weather Will]

Mid December will be rocking....WB 12Z CFS....  or 1,000 hours out what could possibly go wrong....

[Paleocene]

Relentless. In November, we bake.

 

[dailylurker]

GFS tries to bring tropical moisture up here in about a week. Fingers crossed 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS precip. Panels through next weekend. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS precip. Panels through next weekend. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS and GEFS for Sunday/early Monday.  Can we finally get some widespread rain????

[JenkinsJinkies]

Looking at the weather channel Wednesday will probably be the last 80 degree day for the year.

[stormy]

8 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS and GEFS for Sunday/early Monday.  Can we finally get some widespread rain????

Widespread???   No real doubt, Saturday thru Monday.............

More than any time during the past 30 days!!!

The question is:  Will it be .10" or 1.00"?????

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z globals precip totals thru Monday.   Hopefully this at least ends the historically dry stretch...

[dailylurker]

Looks like Sunday rain chances are going poof. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like Sunday rain chances are going poof. 

Totals going down.  

[mdhokie]

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like Sunday rain chances are going poof. 

Up in smoke! 

[Paleocene]

Broken record with the CPC maps which I will refrain from posting because they always look the same now. But seriously the 8-14 outlook has been wall to wall red for weeks and weeks.  Any long-range stuff post D14 suggesting that will change with any indication of reliability?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Broken record with the CPC maps which I will refrain from posting because they always look the same now. But seriously the 8-14 outlook has been wall to wall red for weeks and weeks.  Any long-range stuff post D14 suggesting that will change with any indication of reliability?

It's actually looking like Days 14+ a +EPO will build, giving us well above average conditions. November could end up being a top 10 warmest month in a lot of places if models are correct right now about days 14+. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Today is that anomalous dry pattern showing itself. With a decent front approaching from the west, I was thinking we might have a thunderstorm risk, but the skies are completely clear with just a few chemtrail clouds in the sky.. The pattern from May-on is holding at least through today.. 

[WxUSAF]

If anyone believes it, GEFSX develops a -EPO/+PNA the first week of December with an eastern trough.

[Weather Will]

NWS Sterling for Sunday rain  event and 6Z GFS.

A slow moving compact upper low is set to push across the Upper
Great Lakes on Sunday before crossing through New England on Monday.
The associated frontal system brings the next shot for widespread
rainfall on Sunday. It should certainly be a welcome sight given the
lengthy period of dry weather and increasing drought conditions over
portions of the area. Periods of rain are likely within the warm
advection regime with total amounts expected in the 0.25 to 0.50
inch range, locally higher over the Alleghenies. Overcast skies will
be the norm on Sunday, accompanied by highs fairly close to early
November averages. That is, forecast highs in the mid 50s to low
60s. Any shower activity likely comes to an end by midday Monday
behind the exiting cold front

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If anyone believes it, GEFSX develops a -EPO/+PNA the first week of December with an eastern trough.

In the shorter term, both the GEFS and the Euro ens develop a -NAO mid to late Nov. If real, that should help mitigate the +EPO/-PNA and tendency for an anomalous h5 ridge in the east. Maybe keep temps near seasonal.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

In the shorter term, both the GEFS and the Euro ens develop a -NAO mid to late Nov. If real, that should help mitigate the +EPO/-PNA and tendency for an anomalous h5 ridge in the east. Maybe keep temps near seasonal.

Yeah maybe, but seems like it could also be one of the -NAO/SE ridge equator to pole ridge beast thingy. 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah maybe, but seems like it could also be one of the -NAO/SE ridge equator to pole ridge beast thingy. 

In reality it will probably go back and forth as energy from the NPAC progresses eastward- warmer out in front and cooler air on the backside of the troughs. That's the way it looks on the op runs. Wave interactions/wave breaking build heights in the NAO domain as modeled. Maybe we get some rain chances if it plays out like that.