winter_warlock Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 49 minutes ago, LP08 said: Hopefully we keep reloading something like this through the winter. That is a thing of beauty!! Love that trough!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 This pretty much is what our long range models always say ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 00z GFS is a snoozer 00z CMC has classic I-95 and east screwjob Turkey Day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 CMC says Happy Thanksgiving for the Northern crew. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 00z GFS is a snoozer 00z CMC has classic I-95 and east screwjob Turkey Day storm Feels like a south trend at 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Feels like a south trend at 00zYeah I think that’s a fair read. GFS with some more oomph might’ve snowed but it was just a weak wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 I really like how the snowstorm threat ~Dec 1 is looking on current modeling.. we actually have a +PDO H5 look in the Pacific. -NAO looks like it could hang around longer, making the first few days of Dec the "coming out of strong -NAO storm/threat". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 22 Author Share Posted November 22 WB 0Z ensemble prob of 3 inches or more.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 5 hours ago, Ji said: Feels like a south trend at 00z 5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah I think that’s a fair read. GFS with some more oomph might’ve snowed but it was just a weak wave. Euro takes a really nice track actually. One that would be nearly perfect for snow in another few weeks. Just doesn’t have enough cold air to work with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Euro takes a really nice track actually. One that would be nearly perfect for snow in another few weeks. Just doesn’t have enough cold air to work with.I saw that. Just depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I saw that. Just depressing. I mean, sure if you want to go that route. Or you can recall it’s November with a marginal airmass leading in? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 I mean, sure if you want to go that route. Or you can recall it’s November with a marginal airmass leading in?For better or worse I’m with @Ji lol. Knowing it “would’ve been” snow in 4 weeks doesn’t ease my concerns. Our odds are so low by default we gotta try and win whenever possible. No moral victories 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, sure if you want to go that route. Or you can recall it’s November with a marginal airmass leading in? A week out with that track it's possible it could trend a little better with temps. The surface temps on the 3 major globals from that time period are a bit different. Cmc is upper 20s to lower 30s. Euro has temps in the 35 to 40 range with the gfs a smidge warmer. Great track on the euro but Definitely early in the season as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: A week out with that track it's possible it could trend a little better with temps. The surface temps on the 3 major globals from that time period are a bit different. Cmc is upper 20s to lower 30s. Euro has temps in the 35 to 40 range with the gfs a smidge warmer. Great track on the euro but Definitely early in the season as you said. When it was more of a Black Friday threat, we had more time to get a cold airmass in place. Now it’s only like 24-36 hours behind the weak cold front next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 If @griteateris posting, you know it's good. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If @griteateris posting, you know it's good. it still has to snow. not seeing a southern stream. This window is probably cooked 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 another solution for turkey day way south this run of GFS. Temps responded accordingly. We'll be in shorts before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 another solution for turkey day way south this run of GFS. Temps responded accordingly. We'll be in shorts before long. CMC still looks interesting. Probably fighting a losing battle for our turkey day storm but not calling it quits yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 so im no expert but looks like we need this to phase with the northern stream for us to have any shot at all. Although warm and amped CMC shows you what can happen with a phased system. Euro just misses the phase while GFS misses it all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 its not going to snow on Thanksgiving 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 I thought the 12z EURO was a step in the right direction. Too early to call. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 30 minutes ago, Ji said: its not going to snow on Thanksgiving Whoa now. Going out on a ledge there. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 34 minutes ago, Ji said: its not going to snow on Thanksgiving They haven’t released you yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 A pretty relentless cross polar flow in the LR. The PAC pattern seems stable at the end of all ens runs. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: A pretty relentless cross polar flow in the LR. The PAC pattern seems stable at the end of all ens runs. Would be nice to be able to capitalize on this nice early winter pattern. It hasn't lately but I believe it can still snow in Decemer lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Would be nice to be able to capitalize on this nice early winter pattern. It hasn't lately but I believe it can still snow in Decemer lol. To help your cause, it decided to snow in November today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: To help your cause, it decided to snow in November today Lol good point. I should of clarified a wide spread accumulating snow in December including the major metros 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol good point. I should of clarified a wide spread accumulating snow in December including the major metros I know what you meant, just inspiring hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 11 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Would be nice to be able to capitalize on this nice early winter pattern. It hasn't lately but I believe it can still snow in Decemer lol. Im hopeful man. Anomalous cold is a must the first week of Dec and that seems likely. A little bit of a cold/dry look there but its a smoothed mean in the LR. IIRC 13-14 was the year of threats popping in the medium range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Latest from cpc. Looks even colder in the east... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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