November Medium/ Long Range

[psuhoffman]

@mattie g @brooklynwx99 some evidence to what I'm talking about...these are some of the other very similar fall seasons to where we are now...that I have seen being throw around in the analog set as "colder, snowier" options...along with 2014.  And the pattern those years produced looks like that twitter profile Webb posted also.  

That looks pretty good doesn't it...but all 5 of those years were below average snowfall in the mid atlantic, and I don't mean just below...most were single digit snowfall except 1955 but you have to adjust that year for warming since the 50's.   But the point is all the other years similar to 2014 that lead to a somewhat similar pattern...didn't result in snowy winters around here.  They were mostly really frustrating winters with a ton of snow just to our north and us constantly just south of the boundary on NS dominant systems.  

So was 2014 really a good setup, or did we just get lucky that year?  What made 2014 good when every other example of a similar setup failed? I'm not smart enough to say, but I'm also not willing to bet on a repeat of the one example of this type of setup in the fall leading to high snowfall.  I am not 100% sure of this, that's why I'm discussing it.  I'm intrigued by this dichotomy...I really do wish I could figure out why 2014 went one way and all the other analogs another.  But I am seeing too many people lumping them all together and for just north of us they were similar...but for us they were all bad except 2014.  

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

found it 

Thanks for that.  I would really want to see that getting down closer to -1 though.  -2 is still pretty bad and it was trending down again mid month!  In 2013 we were getting closer to neutral by now.  

[JVscotch]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for that.  I would really want to see that getting down closer to -1 though.  -2 is still pretty bad and it was trending down again mid month!  In 2013 we were getting closer to neutral by now.  

I think that trend down on the map in the past week is another “brief dip” that’s about to bounce up significantly if the upcoming pattern comes close to fruition.  

[mattie g]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yes, I said EVERY OTHER analog year except 2014 was a horrible snowfall winter... read my last post to brooklyn...I think 2014 might have just been a fluke of luck or due to a combination of variables we dont yet know how to factor, because none of the other similar years going all the way back to 1950 produced anything close to that result for us.  Even the other analogs that were cold and snowy just to our north like 2001, 2009, 2013 and 2021 were low snowfall here.  

I must have misunderstood the year references. It's tough to tell if someone means 2013-2014 if they just say one or the other.

[winter_warlock]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mattie g @brooklynwx99 some evidence to what I'm talking about...these are some of the other very similar fall seasons to where we are now...that I have seen being throw around in the analog set as "colder, snowier" options...along with 2014.  And the pattern those years produced looks like that twitter profile Webb posted also.  

That looks pretty good doesn't it...but all 5 of those years were below average snowfall in the mid atlantic, and I don't mean just below...most were single digit snowfall except 1955 but you have to adjust that year for warming since the 50's.   But the point is all the other years similar to 2014 that lead to a somewhat similar pattern...didn't result in snowy winters around here.  They were mostly really frustrating winters with a ton of snow just to our north and us constantly just south of the boundary on NS dominant systems.  

So was 2014 really a good setup, or did we just get lucky that year?  What made 2014 good when every other example of a similar setup failed? I'm not smart enough to say, but I'm also not willing to bet on a repeat of the one example of this type of setup in the fall leading to high snowfall.  I am not 100% sure of this, that's why I'm discussing it.  I'm intrigued by this dichotomy...I really do wish I could figure out why 2014 went one way and all the other analogs another.  But I am seeing too many people lumping them all together and for just north of us they were similar...but for us they were all bad except 2014.  

Actually one of those years 2009- going into 2010 was   snowmaggedon lol

[winter_warlock]

The colds a comin!!!

[Daniel Boone]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometimes, but 2008 had almost the same pattern from Nov 15-Dec 10 and 2008-09 was a god awful snowfall year.  I think 2012-13 which was my top analog was similar...and another year with single digit snowfall across our area and less than 5" in DC.  

Was 2014 really indicative of the drivers being good that winter or just a fluke?  I can't find any other examples going back to 1950 of a weak cold enso or cold neutral +QBO winter coming off a -PDO that ended up snowy around here.  Not a single one.  All the other comps, 1951, 1955, 1972, 1975, 2002, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2021, 2022, 2023 were below average snowfall here.  That is a big enough sample size to wonder if 2014 was just a fluke where even if the same major factors repeated again and again its unlikely to result in the same output and it was due to some combination of discreet variables we can't accurately factor in currently that lead to that...or just a lot of luck with several synoptic systems.  That can happen...maybe we just hit the lottery in terms of lucking out synoptically.  Because even the examples of similar cold winters with those parameters or even smaller scale periods within winters....didn't prodice nearly as much snowfall here.  They did to our north...and they were generally cold patterns...but usually the baroclinic zone for storms ended up just to our north....or the patters were dry with systems redeveloping just north of us and hitting Philly northeast.  It makes it hard for me to use 2014, it was not the typical way we get a snowy winter down here.  

Couple of those were good down here. The big great app Storm November 1950, couple 4-8 inch snow/ice events in January as well . 54-55 slightly below on snowfall . 11-12 terrible. 2013 decent. 21 and 22 good with avg to above Snowfall. 23 below avg snow but, not by alot. As far as this area, only one discusting one. 

[WesternFringe]

5 hours ago, BristowWx said:

taking 11/11/87 out of the equation that would be epic snowfall for November.  

Got 5” here in Augusta County on the Wednesday right before Thanksgiving in the early 2010s.  Anybody know the exact year?

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Got 5” here in Augusta County on the Wednesday right before Thanksgiving in the early 2010s.  Anybody know the exact year?

2014

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

found it 

Where can one find this?

[clskinsfan]

Nevermind. Didnt realize a thread was open. 

[DDweatherman]

2018 storm I was in Taneytown in November. It started snowing and was pouring snow for much of the afternoon. Over 7” 

[TSSN+]

18z gfs is close to being a smoke show. Just need a little south shift. Still snow to ice for northern sections. Also now a dayish earlier puts it at day 6.5/7

[NorthArlington101]

Different evolution but GFS cooking up something for spots N of DC day before Thanksgiving… only 7 days!

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z gfs is close to being a smoke show. Just need a little south shift. Still snow to ice for northern sections. Also now a dayish earlier puts it at day 6.5/7

 

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Different evolution but GFS cooking up something for spots N of DC day before Thanksgiving… only 7 days!

18z is way faster than 12z gfs or euro, which is not what we'd want.  Need time to get that cold HP moving into southern Ontario area.  Verbatim gives some widespread light snow with the upper low on Black Friday though. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Actually one of those years 2009- going into 2010 was   snowmaggedon lol

2010 is not an analog, 2008-09 is a good analog. When I use a single year to describe a winter I mean the Jan/Feb year. Sorry for the confusion. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Couple of those were good down here. The big great app Storm November 1950, couple 4-8 inch snow/ice events in January as well . 54-55 slightly below on snowfall . 11-12 terrible. 2013 decent. 21 and 22 good with avg to above Snowfall. 23 below avg snow but, not by alot. As far as this area, only one discusting one. 

If you look at a cold enso snowfall anomaly map, there is a clear and obvious minimum right over us. It’s drastic with a sharp gradient around 40n and through south central VA up the immediate coast.  You would be tempted to think it’s just a fluke but it’s not. It’s both logical and consistent. NS dominant systems race by just to our north. Durinh cold periods southern sliders can’t phase or lift north because of the NS racing vorts across to the north so they miss south. Sometimes they phase late and hit the coast east of the bay. But east of the mountains from Richmond to Baltimore to the bay is screwed.  
 

2014 was an exception because the pattern went to extremes. There was a ridge over the top of the pole at times that displaced the TPV enough to really suppress the NS. Enough that waves that almost always go north dug south of us. There was also more STJ interaction than is common. It was just an example of what can happen of things go to super extremes. But it was probably a once a century outcome for a cold enso, -pdo, +QBO winter.  Just like 1996 was a once a century outcome for a Nina but for different reasons. Extremely +PDO pattern which is uncommon. The Nina never coupled. But even for a -QBO +PDO Nina it was extreme. That rare subset is better than most Nina’s but other examples like 2006 didn’t go to that extreme. They were better than most Nina’s but not 1996. 
 

Sometimes we get an extreme outcome that isn’t common and not likely to repeat even from similar parameters. I put 1996 and 2014 in that category.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

18z is way faster than 12z gfs or euro, which is not what we'd want.  Need time to get that cold HP moving into southern Ontario area.  Verbatim gives some widespread light snow with the upper low on Black Friday though. 

Last couple years gfs started to improve on synoptic placements around 150 hours. It was by no means perfect inside 150 but it started to have more runs that were at least closer to the final outcome. So we’re getting close to when it might start to narrow the goalposts. 
 

Have to see how the new euro behaves. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

2010 is not an analog, 2008-09 is a good analog. When I use a single year to describe a winter I mean the Jan/Feb year. Sorry for the confusion. 

Ahh ok sorry bro my bad :)

[stormtracker]

Hey gang!  Hope next week works out.  Unfortunately, I will not be on this journey with you mofos...I'll be in fucking South Carolina for Thanksgiving.   But just know, I'm tracking with yall.   Let's get the band back together!  It's about time!

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey gang!  Hope next week works out.  Unfortunately, I will not be on this journey with you mofos...I'll be in fucking South Carolina for Thanksgiving.   But just know, I'm tracking with yall.   Let's get the band back together!  It's about time!

Happy Thanksgiving, eat, drink and be merry

[KAOS]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey gang!  Hope next week works out.  Unfortunately, I will not be on this journey with you mofos...I'll be in fucking South Carolina for Thanksgiving.   But just know, I'm tracking with yall.   Let's get the band back together!  It's about time!

I hope we can fire up the bus and get a radio show going this winter. Cheers!

[NorthArlington101]

Just for awareness, since it’s a new tool to track this year, the 18z AI EURO (the one on WxBell… there may very well be other offshoots) has a thump to rain event next Friday based on temps. Probably 2-3” before a decent hit of rain and then dryslot

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We may have a snowstorm threat around Thanksgiving. The NAO is going to be coming out of a deeply-negative-state, and the Pacific looks favorable right now. Of course, we've had so much +WPO and +EPO for the last 2 years, I want to see that models don't trend away from what they currently are showing, but it has potential.. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Hey gang!  Hope next week works out.  Unfortunately, I will not be on this journey with you mofos...I'll be in fucking South Carolina for Thanksgiving.   But just know, I'm tracking with yall.   Let's get the band back together!  It's about time!

Yessss!!

[winter_warlock]

00z GFS still has the storm.. looks like a more southern track compared to 18z..in my opinion. 

[winter_warlock]

FWIW...

 

[TSSN+]

Didn’t take too long for things to crap out lol.