November Medium/ Long Range

[winter_warlock]

39 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Would be nice to be able to capitalize on this nice early winter pattern.

It hasn't lately but I believe it can still snow in Decemer lol.

Amen brother!!!

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Amen brother!!!

Not this run of the GFS.  Sunny and 52F.  Let’s see if we can run at 60F

[Terpeast]

Southern slider just misses us on Nov 30. It’s close. At d8 its very close…

[Ji]

Southern slider just misses us on Nov 30. It’s close. At d8 its very close…

Southern sliders always slide south of us…always missing us

[Chris78]

Gfs with a coastal on infamous December 5th.

[NorthArlington101]

Gfs with a coastal on infamous December 5th.

Dec. 5th is a lock this year. Book it. Been saying it for weeks.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dec. 5th is a lock this year. Book it. Been saying it for weeks.

If models are believed we are into some pretty anomalous cold air by then.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Gfs with a coastal on infamous December 5th.

That’s the wave I have an eye on. GEPS had it on 0/12z

[NorthArlington101]

If models are believed we are into some pretty anomalous cold air by then.

Im heartened by the fact the CPC agrees with the models as per their outlook.

I’d be disappointed to not get 1” on the ground in the next 3 weeks within the beltway. That’s my bar, which is fairly ambitious given recent Decembers.

[psuhoffman]

Northern stream wave dives out of western Canada and digs south of us. That’s something we rarely see recently. If that actually happened then I’d believe maybe this is a anomalous season. 

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

If models are believed we are into some pretty anomalous cold air by then.

Looking like one of the coldest decembers in many many years!

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Northern stream wave dives out of western Canada and digs south of us. That’s something we rarely see recently. If that actually happened then I’d believe maybe this is a anomalous season. 

With you man. Deep diving NS Systems are a rarity anymore. Clippers have become nearly extinct. Webber has a good Write-up on X on the how's and why's this may be one of those Winter's. Great presentation by him. 

[jonjon]

I miss clippers so much.  The lack of them the last decade is why our totals here have dropped off the ledge.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, jonjon said:

I miss clippers so much.  The lack of them the last decade is why our totals here have dropped off the ledge.

I have still wondered about that...like why did they all of the sudden shut off after 2015? Or was it perhaps because of the PDO flip? Even with a possibly changing climo in mind, the steep shut off with those is strange, isn't it?

[NorthArlington101]

Gosh, 00z GFS is close for TDay. Verbatim a decent storm for NW burbs, close in burbs probably get a little bit of winter again.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

With you man. Deep diving NS Systems are a rarity anymore. Clippers have become nearly extinct. Webber has a good Write-up on X on the how's and why's this may be one of those Winter's. Great presentation by him. 

Can I trouble you for the link please? 

[NorthArlington101]

Gosh, 00z GFS is close for TDay. Verbatim a decent storm for NW burbs, close in burbs probably get a little bit of winter again.

Seems like surface temps and 925s are an issue across the board. Largely evening/overnight timing probably still gets it done for favored spots.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Seems like surface temps and 925s are an issue across the board. Largely evening/overnight timing probably still gets it done for favored spots.

 

[NorthArlington101]

 

That kinda counts as getting it done for November. PSU did blow that out of the water today though, lmao

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

That kinda counts as getting it done for November. PSU did blow that out of the water today though, lmao

Keep the chances comin 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, jonjon said:

I miss clippers so much.  The lack of them the last decade is why our totals here have dropped off the ledge.

 

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I have still wondered about that...like why did they all of the sudden shut off after 2015? Or was it perhaps because of the PDO flip? Even with a possibly changing climo in mind, the steep shut off with those is strange, isn't it?

 

True, but redundant since even if it were possible to get clippers in the warm regimes absent a northerly flow out of Canada or a sharp thermal gradient to fuel them…they’d just be rain anyways.  Clippers are just a label for weak NS waves along the arctic boundary. No arctic boundary. No clippers. 
 

I get the sentiment but the issue is bigger than just “clippers disappeared”. That’s just an effect of the whole winter patterns having been wrong in so many ways most of the last 8 years. 

 

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[yoda]

06z GFS was pretty nice for the i81 corridor into parts of C MD for next Friday