November Medium/ Long Range

[winter_warlock]

49 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Hopefully we keep reloading something like this through the winter.

 

 

That is a thing of beauty!! Love that trough!!!

[winter_warlock]

   This pretty much is what our long range models always say ...

 

[NorthArlington101]

00z GFS is a snoozer

00z CMC has classic I-95 and east screwjob Turkey Day storm

[Chris78]

CMC says Happy Thanksgiving for the Northern crew.

[Ji]

00z GFS is a snoozer

00z CMC has classic I-95 and east screwjob Turkey Day storm

Feels like a south trend at 00z

[NorthArlington101]

Feels like a south trend at 00z

Yeah I think that’s a fair read. GFS with some more oomph might’ve snowed but it was just a weak wave.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I really like how the snowstorm threat ~Dec 1 is looking on current modeling.. we actually have a +PDO H5 look in the Pacific. -NAO looks like it could hang around longer, making the first few days of Dec the "coming out of strong -NAO storm/threat". 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensemble prob of 3 inches or more....

[WxUSAF]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Feels like a south trend at 00z

 

5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah I think that’s a fair read. GFS with some more oomph might’ve snowed but it was just a weak wave.

Euro takes a really nice track actually. One that would be nearly perfect for snow in another few weeks. Just doesn’t have enough cold air to work with.

[Ji]

Euro takes a really nice track actually. One that would be nearly perfect for snow in another few weeks. Just doesn’t have enough cold air to work with.

I saw that. Just depressing.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I saw that. Just depressing.

I mean, sure if you want to go that route. Or you can recall it’s November with a marginal airmass leading in?

[NorthArlington101]

I mean, sure if you want to go that route. Or you can recall it’s November with a marginal airmass leading in?

For better or worse I’m with @Ji lol. Knowing it “would’ve been” snow in 4 weeks doesn’t ease my concerns. Our odds are so low by default we gotta try and win whenever possible. No moral victories

[Chris78]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, sure if you want to go that route. Or you can recall it’s November with a marginal airmass leading in?

A week out with that track it's possible it could trend a little better with temps. 

The surface temps on the 3 major globals from that time period are a bit different.  Cmc is upper 20s to lower 30s. Euro has temps in the 35 to 40 range with the gfs a smidge warmer. 

Great track on the euro but Definitely early in the season as you said.

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

A week out with that track it's possible it could trend a little better with temps. 

The surface temps on the 3 major globals from that time period are a bit different.  Cmc is upper 20s to lower 30s. Euro has temps in the 35 to 40 range with the gfs a smidge warmer. 

Great track on the euro but Definitely early in the season as you said.

 

When it was more of a Black Friday threat, we had more time to get a cold airmass in place. Now it’s only like 24-36 hours behind the weak cold front next Tuesday.

[Eskimo Joe]

If @griteateris posting, you know it's good.

 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If @griteateris posting, you know it's good.

 

it still has to snow. not seeing a southern stream. This window is probably cooked

[BristowWx]

another solution for turkey day way south this run of GFS.  Temps responded accordingly.  We'll be in shorts before long.  

[NorthArlington101]

another solution for turkey day way south this run of GFS.  Temps responded accordingly.  We'll be in shorts before long.  

CMC still looks interesting. Probably fighting a losing battle for our turkey day storm but not calling it quits yet

[soadforecasterx]

so im no expert but looks like we need this to phase with the northern stream for us to have any shot at all. Although warm and amped CMC shows you what can happen with a phased system. Euro just misses the phase while GFS misses it all together. 

[Ji]

its not going to snow on Thanksgiving

[NorthArlington101]

I thought the 12z EURO was a step in the right direction. Too early to call.

[stormtracker]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

its not going to snow on Thanksgiving

Whoa now.  Going out on a ledge there. 

[TSSN+]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

its not going to snow on Thanksgiving

They haven’t released you yet? 

[poolz1]

A pretty relentless cross polar flow in the LR.  The PAC pattern seems stable at the end of all ens runs. 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

A pretty relentless cross polar flow in the LR.  The PAC pattern seems stable at the end of all ens runs. 

Would be nice to be able to capitalize on this nice early winter pattern.

It hasn't lately but I believe it can still snow in Decemer lol.

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Would be nice to be able to capitalize on this nice early winter pattern.

It hasn't lately but I believe it can still snow in Decemer lol.

To help your cause, it decided to snow in November today 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

To help your cause, it decided to snow in November today 

Lol good point. I should of clarified a wide spread accumulating snow in December including the major metros

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lol good point. I should of clarified a wide spread accumulating snow in December including the major metros

I know what you meant, just inspiring hope 

[poolz1]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Would be nice to be able to capitalize on this nice early winter pattern.

It hasn't lately but I believe it can still snow in Decemer lol.

Im hopeful man.  Anomalous cold is a must the first week of Dec and that seems likely. A little bit of a cold/dry look there but its a smoothed mean in the LR.  IIRC 13-14 was the year of threats popping in the medium range?

[winter_warlock]

Latest from cpc. Looks even colder in the east...