CAPE Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Late next week probably favors places north of our region for frozen, with the thermal boundary a little too far north and the cold not quite in place yet on current ens guidance. Shortwave energy interactions/timing are not going to be accurately resolved at this point so.. still time. I remain more interested in the early December window with colder air in place as currently modeled, and the boundary further south. Recent guidance has been hinting but too far out to have any consistency with shortwave locations and timing from run to run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Late next week probably favors places north of our region for frozen, with the thermal boundary a little too far north and the cold not quite in place yet on current ens guidance. Shortwave energy interactions/timing are not going to be accurately resolved at this point so.. still time. I remain more interested in the early December window with colder air in place as currently modeled, and the boundary further south. Recent guidance has been hinting but too far out to have any consistency with shortwave locations and timing from run to run. If there’s going to be two threats, the one in beginning of dec would be the better one than TG. But I’d love a cold TG day, even if its rain. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 15 hours ago, cbmclean said: Where can one find this? https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 12z GFS is a little more interesting for Thanksgiving but verbatim it's close but no cigar. Worth tracking. White Turkey Day for PA/SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z GFS is a little more interesting for Thanksgiving but verbatim it's close but no cigar. Worth tracking. White Turkey Day for PA/SNE How this next couple weeks plays out I think is very important for hints at the winter. I know some will be tempted to say "it's early so its ok that these storms are not working out" but that is not necessarily true... It's one thing if the boundary is a little too warm maybe in the UHI but the storm took a good track and 2-3 degrees colder at the surface would have been a big snow...that is the type of thing that an early miss is not a bad thing and can be indicative of a good pattern. But when I saw the 6z GFS run the thought I had is...and that is exactly how all those horrible snowfall analogs I had in my set managed to have decent looking H5 patterns and produce no snow. A NS wave goes just to our north, it gets uber cold but a southern slider gets shunted south then phases too late and hits new england... another NS wave goes just north...gets cold but no STJ at the end then a NS wave goes north again. You look at the mean pattern for the whole period and it looked great and we got no snow to show for it! A little ice maybe. But I do think this first period of "winter pattern" will tip the hat for the winter some. If one of these waves can actually flush hit our area I will start to think maybe the 2014 analog idea has merit but if we go through a period where its generally chilly but NS waves manage to go just north and STJ waves get suppressed well...thats exactly what all the analogs say will happen all winter long. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Looking at long range gfs, what is that pesky, fast moving wave coming out of the Alberta region of Canada? We used to have something like that way back in time, but they've been extinct for so long that I can't recall the name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 18 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Looking at long range gfs, what is that pesky, fast moving wave coming out of the Alberta region of Canada? We used to have something like that way back in time, but they've been extinct for so long that I can't recall the name. Alberta Clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Alberta Clipper. Lol, he was being facetious. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 8 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Lol, he was being facetious. Shit. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Shit. You're rusty. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: You're rusty. Indeed. I’ll sharpen up as we get into prime time. Promise. My posts will get back to the peak of mediocrity and the best piss poor model analysis. You really can’t get that kind of content anywhere else. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You're rusty. It's been several years where the most exciting thing to talk about has been tomato horn worms. Everyone is rusty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 How this next couple weeks plays out I think is very important for hints at the winter. I know some will be tempted to say "it's early so its ok that these storms are not working out" but that is not necessarily true... It's one thing if the boundary is a little too warm maybe in the UHI but the storm took a good track and 2-3 degrees colder at the surface would have been a big snow...that is the type of thing that an early miss is not a bad thing and can be indicative of a good pattern. But when I saw the 6z GFS run the thought I had is...and that is exactly how all those horrible snowfall analogs I had in my set managed to have decent looking H5 patterns and produce no snow. A NS wave goes just to our north, it gets uber cold but a southern slider gets shunted south then phases too late and hits new england... another NS wave goes just north...gets cold but no STJ at the end then a NS wave goes north again. You look at the mean pattern for the whole period and it looked great and we got no snow to show for it! A little ice maybe. But I do think this first period of "winter pattern" will tip the hat for the winter some. If one of these waves can actually flush hit our area I will start to think maybe the 2014 analog idea has merit but if we go through a period where its generally chilly but NS waves manage to go just north and STJ waves get suppressed well...thats exactly what all the analogs say will happen all winter long. Still plenty of time for a shift, but 12z ENS want to send the NS wave to the north for now. Uh oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 15 hours ago, stormtracker said: Hey gang! Hope next week works out. Unfortunately, I will not be on this journey with you mofos...I'll be in fucking South Carolina for Thanksgiving. But just know, I'm tracking with yall. Let's get the band back together! It's about time! Same. Should be pretty nice weather for the holiday, though. I love having the windows open and getting to chill outside on Thanksgiving day. Kinda sucks being stuck inside with a bunch of people on a shitty weather day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 54 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still plenty of time for a shift, but 12z ENS want to send the NS wave to the north for now. Uh oh! I think if people don’t get dreams of 2014 results in their heads there is some good news here and that is I do see signs that some of the absolute worst analog years like 2002 and 2023 might not be how this winter is evolving. I see more similarities so years like 2008/9 and 2012/13 and while they weren’t good there was more snow around the area those years. They were just bad not god awful. Until recently not god awful might have been considers a win. But recently I’ve seen some hype based on one season where this type of pattern worked. But it takes things going to a crazy extreme to get an epo driven pattern to be snowy here in a cold enso season. It does snow some. And it’s cold for stretches. But most often it’s also frustrating as we’re stuck in the dead zone between storm tracks most of the winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 38 minutes ago, mattie g said: Same. Should be pretty nice weather for the holiday, though. I love having the windows open and getting to chill outside on Thanksgiving day. Kinda sucks being stuck inside with a bunch of people on a shitty weather day... Agreed. My fam is a trip, so I'll be consoled by spending time with them. Now, if by some fluke miracle, our area got a 6" snowstorm, I'd resent them forever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Longwave pattern continues to look good through the end of the 12z ensemble runs with BN temps. No defined storm periods after thanksgiving itself, but it doesn’t look bone dry. Shift in phase of the NAO from - to + could be an indicator. That seems to happen late in the runs (mid-late first week of December). GEPS actually has a coastal on D15. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Longwave pattern continues to look good through the end of the 12z ensemble runs with BN temps. No defined storm periods after thanksgiving itself, but it doesn’t look bone dry. Shift in phase of the NAO from - to + could be an indicator. That seems to happen late in the runs (mid-late first week of December). GEPS actually has a coastal on D15. Now we just wait for the inevitable point between 12/1 and 12/10 where someone posts "Eww we loose the pacific at the end of the LR" and it marches forward inexorably in time and we spend the rest of the winter trying to escape alternating Pacific ridges and Pac Puke jet extensions and a month later the pattern looks much better at range but as it gets closer it is improved but the warts start to appear and @Ralph Wiggum starts posting about the WAR and then a really good pattern starts to take shape on every guidance until it all collapses during a Raven's playoff loss... No, I'm not scarred... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Now we just wait for the inevitable point between 12/1 and 12/10 where someone posts "Eww we loose the pacific at the end of the LR" and it marches forward inexorably in time and we spend the rest of the winter trying to escape alternating Pacific ridges and Pac Puke jet extensions and a month later the pattern looks much better at range but as it gets closer it is improved but the warts start to appear and @Ralph Wiggum starts posting about the WAR and then a really good pattern starts to take shape on every guidance until it all collapses during a Raven's playoff loss... No, I'm not scarred... It’s quite possible. Not going to have a ridge from Baja to Siberia all winter. Hopefully we get western ridging to reload throughout the winter. But I’d bet my lunch we get some torch periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 18z GFS reallly close for Thanksgiving for DC. Verbatim a warning level event for NMD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z GFS reallly close for Thanksgiving for DC. Verbatim a warning level event for NMD. How about the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 How about the mountains? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s not 10:1 1-3” event per this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It’s not 10:1 1-3” event per this run It’s gonna be a long year 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 GEFS has two distinct chances. First wave on Thanksgiving itself… living on the edge, probably favoring northern zones .Second wave on Friday/Saturday looks more interesting. Feel like that’s more along the ways we win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS has two distinct chances. First wave on Thanksgiving itself… living on the edge, probably favoring northern zones . Second wave on Friday/Saturday looks more interesting. Feel like that’s more along the ways we win. Yeap. The second wave after the first one pushes the boundary south is a good way to win around here. Needs some timing but can work for a modest event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Hopefully we keep reloading something like this through the winter. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 for the most part---the euro weeklies look pretty good for the next 6 weeks. Late Dec/Jan starting off nice. wild cause the euro climate model hated Dec and the entire winterlol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: Now we just wait for the inevitable point between 12/1 and 12/10 where someone posts "Eww we loose the pacific at the end of the LR" and it marches forward inexorably in time and we spend the rest of the winter trying to escape alternating Pacific ridges and Pac Puke jet extensions and a month later the pattern looks much better at range but as it gets closer it is improved but the warts start to appear and @Ralph Wiggum starts posting about the WAR and then a really good pattern starts to take shape on every guidance until it all collapses during a Raven's playoff loss... No, I'm not scarred... Now would I ever go and do something like that? BTW, the 18z GFS is one of those runs that just gives a warm fuzzy feeling as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Well peeps looking like the cold is coming and gonna be around a spell according to CPC! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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