November Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

Late next week probably favors places north of our region for frozen, with the thermal boundary a little too far north and the cold not quite in place yet on current ens guidance. Shortwave energy interactions/timing are not going to be accurately resolved at this point so.. still time. I remain more interested in the early December window with colder air in place as currently modeled, and the boundary further south. Recent guidance has been hinting but too far out to have any consistency with shortwave locations and timing from run to run.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Late next week probably favors places north of our region for frozen, with the thermal boundary a little too far north and the cold not quite in place yet on current ens guidance. Shortwave energy interactions/timing are not going to be accurately resolved at this point so.. still time. I remain more interested in the early December window with colder air in place as currently modeled, and the boundary further south. Recent guidance has been hinting but too far out to have any consistency with shortwave locations and timing from run to run.

If there’s going to be two threats, the one in beginning of dec would be the better one than TG. But I’d love a cold TG day, even if its rain. 

[soadforecasterx]

15 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Where can one find this?

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

[NorthArlington101]

12z GFS is a little more interesting for Thanksgiving but verbatim it's close but no cigar. Worth tracking. White Turkey Day for PA/SNE

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z GFS is a little more interesting for Thanksgiving but verbatim it's close but no cigar. Worth tracking. White Turkey Day for PA/SNE

How this next couple weeks plays out I think is very important for hints at the winter.  I know some will be tempted to say "it's early so its ok that these storms are not working out" but that is not necessarily true... It's one thing if the boundary is a little too warm maybe in the UHI but the storm took a good track and 2-3 degrees colder at the surface would have been a big snow...that is the type of thing that an early miss is not a bad thing and can be indicative of a good pattern.  But when I saw the 6z GFS run the thought I had is...and that is exactly how all those horrible snowfall analogs I had in my set managed to have decent looking H5 patterns and produce no snow.  A NS wave goes just to our north, it gets uber cold but a southern slider gets shunted south then phases too late and hits new england... another NS wave goes just north...gets cold but no STJ at the end then a NS wave goes north again.  You look at the mean pattern for the whole period and it looked great and we got no snow to show for it!  A little ice maybe.  But I do think this first period of "winter pattern" will tip the hat for the winter some.  If one of these waves can actually flush hit our area I will start to think maybe the 2014 analog idea has merit but if we go through a period where its generally chilly but NS waves manage to go just north and STJ waves get suppressed well...thats exactly what all the analogs say will happen all winter long.  

[nw baltimore wx]

Looking at long range gfs, what is that pesky, fast moving wave coming out of the Alberta region of Canada?  We used to have something like that way back in time, but they've been extinct for so long that I can't recall the name.

[stormtracker]

18 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Looking at long range gfs, what is that pesky, fast moving wave coming out of the Alberta region of Canada?  We used to have something like that way back in time, but they've been extinct for so long that I can't recall the name.

Alberta Clipper. 

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Alberta Clipper. 

Lol, he was being facetious. 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Lol, he was being facetious. 

Shit. 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Shit. 

You're rusty.

[stormtracker]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

You're rusty.

Indeed. I’ll sharpen up as we get into prime time.  Promise. My posts will get back to the peak of mediocrity and the best piss poor model analysis.
 

You really can’t get that kind of content anywhere else.   

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You're rusty.

It's been several years where the most exciting thing to talk about has been tomato horn worms.  Everyone is rusty...

[NorthArlington101]

How this next couple weeks plays out I think is very important for hints at the winter.  I know some will be tempted to say "it's early so its ok that these storms are not working out" but that is not necessarily true... It's one thing if the boundary is a little too warm maybe in the UHI but the storm took a good track and 2-3 degrees colder at the surface would have been a big snow...that is the type of thing that an early miss is not a bad thing and can be indicative of a good pattern.  But when I saw the 6z GFS run the thought I had is...and that is exactly how all those horrible snowfall analogs I had in my set managed to have decent looking H5 patterns and produce no snow.  A NS wave goes just to our north, it gets uber cold but a southern slider gets shunted south then phases too late and hits new england... another NS wave goes just north...gets cold but no STJ at the end then a NS wave goes north again.  You look at the mean pattern for the whole period and it looked great and we got no snow to show for it!  A little ice maybe.  But I do think this first period of "winter pattern" will tip the hat for the winter some.  If one of these waves can actually flush hit our area I will start to think maybe the 2014 analog idea has merit but if we go through a period where its generally chilly but NS waves manage to go just north and STJ waves get suppressed well...thats exactly what all the analogs say will happen all winter long.  

Still plenty of time for a shift, but 12z ENS want to send the NS wave to the north for now. Uh oh!

[mattie g]

15 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Hey gang!  Hope next week works out.  Unfortunately, I will not be on this journey with you mofos...I'll be in fucking South Carolina for Thanksgiving.   But just know, I'm tracking with yall.   Let's get the band back together!  It's about time!

Same. Should be pretty nice weather for the holiday, though. I love having the windows open and getting to chill outside on Thanksgiving day. Kinda sucks being stuck inside with a bunch of people on a shitty weather day...

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Still plenty of time for a shift, but 12z ENS want to send the NS wave to the north for now. Uh oh!

I think if people don’t get dreams of 2014 results in their heads there is some good news here and that is I do see signs that some of the absolute worst analog years like 2002 and 2023 might not be how this winter is evolving.  I see more similarities so years like 2008/9 and 2012/13 and while they weren’t good there was more snow around the area those years. They were just bad not god awful.  Until recently not god awful might have been considers a win. But recently I’ve seen some hype based on one season where this type of pattern worked. But it takes things going to a crazy extreme to get an epo driven pattern to be snowy here in a cold enso season.  It does snow some. And it’s cold for stretches. But most often it’s also frustrating as we’re stuck in the dead zone between storm tracks most of the winter.  

[stormtracker]

38 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Same. Should be pretty nice weather for the holiday, though. I love having the windows open and getting to chill outside on Thanksgiving day. Kinda sucks being stuck inside with a bunch of people on a shitty weather day...

Agreed.   My fam is a trip, so I'll be consoled by spending time with them.  Now, if by some fluke miracle, our area got a 6" snowstorm, I'd resent them forever.

[WxUSAF]

Longwave pattern continues to look good through the end of the 12z ensemble runs with BN temps. No defined storm periods after thanksgiving itself, but it doesn’t look bone dry. Shift in phase of the NAO from - to + could be an indicator. That seems to happen late in the runs (mid-late first week of December). GEPS actually has a coastal on D15. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Longwave pattern continues to look good through the end of the 12z ensemble runs with BN temps. No defined storm periods after thanksgiving itself, but it doesn’t look bone dry. Shift in phase of the NAO from - to + could be an indicator. That seems to happen late in the runs (mid-late first week of December). GEPS actually has a coastal on D15. 

Now we just wait for the inevitable point between 12/1 and 12/10 where someone posts "Eww we loose the pacific at the end of the LR" and it marches forward inexorably in time and we spend the rest of the winter trying to escape alternating Pacific ridges and Pac Puke jet extensions and a month later the pattern looks much better at range but as it gets closer it is improved but the warts start to appear and @Ralph Wiggum starts posting about the WAR and then a really good pattern starts to take shape on every guidance until it all collapses during a Raven's playoff loss...

No, I'm not scarred...

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Now we just wait for the inevitable point between 12/1 and 12/10 where someone posts "Eww we loose the pacific at the end of the LR" and it marches forward inexorably in time and we spend the rest of the winter trying to escape alternating Pacific ridges and Pac Puke jet extensions and a month later the pattern looks much better at range but as it gets closer it is improved but the warts start to appear and @Ralph Wiggum starts posting about the WAR and then a really good pattern starts to take shape on every guidance until it all collapses during a Raven's playoff loss...

No, I'm not scarred...

It’s quite possible. Not going to have a ridge from Baja to Siberia all winter. Hopefully we get western ridging to reload throughout the winter. But I’d bet my lunch we get some torch periods. 

[NorthArlington101]

18z GFS reallly close for Thanksgiving for DC. Verbatim a warning level event for NMD.

[katabatic]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS reallly close for Thanksgiving for DC. Verbatim a warning level event for NMD.

How about the mountains? 

[NorthArlington101]

How about the mountains? 

[TSSN+]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s not 10:1 1-3” event per this run