Scraff Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM Say what now!? Time to stock up the beer fridge! Oh wait—it’s always stocked. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Tuesday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:32 PM Euro blasts DC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2024111912&fh=342&r=atl&dpdt=&mc= 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted Tuesday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:41 PM 6 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Euro blasts DC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2024111912&fh=342&r=atl&dpdt=&mc= Yeah. Buts it the euro at 342…it will change to partly sunny and 72 by tomorrow…never thought I would write ‘it’s the euro at 342!’ The future has arrived! It will still be snowless probably! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Tuesday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:22 PM 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, see my comments in the mid range thread. I definitely believe there will be good cold air in Canada and into the central Plains. Where it goes from there and if cold air and moisture can overlap are 2 big questions. But better to have that to ponder than another mega torch staring us in the face? No doubt that we're far, far, far better off with where we are now than with staring down a pig Pacific jet barreling into the West Coast all the way from Japan at 350mph. That shit is the suck. I'm coming into this winter with absolutely zero expectations and an acceptance that something (and I'm not necessarily hinting at CC) that we don't have a full handle of is/are THE driving force(s) behind so many people being wrong about seasonal forecasting in the last few years. We really can't do much worse than we have recently and I'm a big believer in the rubber band theory, so I don't think that persistence is the way to look at this coming winter. I suppose this is just a roundabout way of saying that any seasonal forecast I might have is based on "feels," which I realize wouldn't satisfy many around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:25 PM 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging This is a general winning look in a Nina that can suppress the SE ridge at times, bringing shots of legit cold southward and placing the thermal boundary in a favorable spot. CFS has probably been the most persistent of the seasonal guidance the last couple months depicting the -EPO with southward stretched TPV. We have been seeing that same look on LR ens and extended guidance lately, which is definitely encouraging. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is a general winning look in a Nina that can suppress the SE ridge at times, bringing shots of legit cold southward and placing the thermal boundary in a favorable spot. CFS has probably been the most persistent of the seasonal guidance the last couple months depicting the -EPO with southward stretched TPV. We have been seeing that same look on LR ens and extended guidance lately, which is definitely encouraging. Webb thinks it’s a winter preview look 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM 18Z GFS looks decent for some falling mashed potatoes out here. Bring it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM HH GFS brings some legit cold heading into Dec. Pretty radical look. H5 Avocado. 6 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 11:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:14 PM The following shortwave energy in the flow overtop the ridge gets suppressed and strung out well south, unsurprisingly. Nice to see some wintry possibilities on guidance for the beginning of December. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:17 PM 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: HH GFS brings some legit cold heading into Dec. Pretty radical look. H5 Avocado. Alright pay up. All avocado references require royalties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:32 PM 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright pay up. All avocado references require royalties Ralph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Tuesday at 11:35 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:35 PM WB 12Z EPS....about half the members have it cold in the eastern part of the country in early December. Hope they are correct. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Wednesday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:38 AM 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Ralph? Nah he just kinda ran with it after I said it, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Wednesday at 12:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:46 AM 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS....about half the members have it cold in the eastern part of the country in early December. Hope they are correct. Worth noting that the warm members aren’t THAT warm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 12:53 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:53 AM 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Worth noting that the warm members aren’t THAT warm At the moment, coldest day looks a 2-4 days before that chart. EPS still has a robust -EPO/-WPO ridge that extends down the west coast at the end of the run. So I'd still expect cold air around somewhere in the CONUS at that time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 01:23 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:23 AM 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: At the moment, coldest day looks a 2-4 days before that chart. EPS still has a robust -EPO/-WPO ridge that extends down the west coast at the end of the run. So I'd still expect cold air around somewhere in the CONUS at that time. That is fair, lot of cold around the first....WB 12Z EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Wednesday at 01:58 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:58 AM 5 hours ago, Scraff said: Say what now!? Time to stock up the beer fridge! Oh wait—it’s always stocked. Here is the sad reality that is pretty much climatologically normal maybe even slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Wednesday at 02:00 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:00 AM 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: Euro blasts DC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2024111912&fh=342&r=atl&dpdt=&mc= I am not in love with the position of the high off to the east in the Atlantic and a weak 1004 mb low to our south this screams mid-level warmth so sleet and a changeover, but this is December 3rd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted Wednesday at 06:25 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:25 AM 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted Wednesday at 06:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:29 AM GEFS 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 09:16 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 09:16 AM WB 0Z EPS today compared to yesterday....will keep tracking for early December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 10:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:13 AM There is a signal on the 0z Euro ens for a moderate precip event in early Dec. About a dozen members have frozen for at least some of the MA(apart from the western highlands) in the December 2-4 period. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 11:36 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:36 AM The 6z GFS gets it done with some shortwave energy riding the thermal boundary. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Wednesday at 12:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:15 PM 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 6z GFS gets it done with some shortwave energy riding the thermal boundary. Also has a nice snow to ice event before that with a west tracking low running into confluence 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Wednesday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:56 PM ^^ It's really nice to see precip and cold in tandem now in the medium-ish range. Like really, really nice. Do I want it to snow? Of course...but it's still *really* early and even a very cold rain at the very beginning of December is a good omen, IMO. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM GFS trying to do something the end of Thanksgiving week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Wednesday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:31 PM GFS says white Thanksgiving for alot in this forum, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:34 PM 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Webb thinks it’s a winter preview look Honest question... I really do wonder what you or anyone else's take on this is. I do see these posts from some VERY knowledgeable experts and I certainly see the pattern coming up...and I want to be hopeful...but almost all the analogs they are using to justify the optimism are based on years where the QBO was totally opposite of this year. There are no examples of a snowy winter with a similar enso/QBO/PDO combo as we are in right now. None! So I guess my question is...am I missing something? It is a small sample...maybe the QBO isn't as important in this equation as I am making it. I do lean towards this not being a blowtorch wall to wall...some of my top analogs were decently cold winters...but not snowy at all. Example 2008-9 is a top analog. And look at the pattern late Nov to early Dec that winter...but it didn't help us at all, it was a horrible snowfall year here. Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Wednesday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:35 PM 4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Also has a nice snow to ice event before that with a west tracking low running into confluence 12z has a similar progression, is something to watch and evens pops a coastal (too late for us but gets NYC good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM GFS trying to do something the end of Thanksgiving week...Pretty good look for late November. Not sure the CAD will hold but it’ll trend better 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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