WVclimo Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok FWIW. Joe Bastardi is claiming that there is no lanina... any truth to this. And if Joe is right then the winter could look much different then originally thought.. just my opinion.. maybe someone with alot more knowledge of the enso patterns could chime in Latest CPC update from last week said ENSO-neutral now with a Nina forecasted to be weak for the winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Weak ones generally have good cold shots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Heyooooo URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 225 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-190330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0009.241121T1800Z-241124T0000Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- 225 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible with locally higher amounts along the ridgetops. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile at times due to falling and blowing snow. This may lead to whiteout conditions and may make travel difficult. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 15z GFS seems to be on board with a more robust evolution. Looking good and ~72 hours away. Turn in that PTO form. Think I might’ve made myself too important and have to work at least half of Friday. I’ll assess a Friday evening overnighter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Epic 18z gfs run ahead. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Weak ones generally have good cold shots We do pretty good with weak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think I might’ve made myself too important and have to work at least half of Friday. I’ll assess a Friday evening overnighter! You can tell your employer that you have come down with a "sickness" and be completely truthful: snow sickness. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Well the 18z GFS was pretty epic. Multiple shots of snow and more to come 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK 16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 28 minutes ago, Ji said: Epic 18z gfs run ahead. I’d take that and call it a winter…white Friday on Black Friday. 254hrs. It’s practically here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’d take that and call it a winter…white Friday on Black Friday. 254hrs. It’s practically here Wow. That was weather porn. That run also crushes the spot I'm headed to in WV this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 I am feeling pretty confident that a lot of us will see our first flakes later this week. One storm at a time for me going forward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 6 members in forum now will expand to 200 by weeks end if we continue this path. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 It's. Long range so I don't put alot of stock in it. And I take it with a grain of salt!! but still nice to see for thanksgiving!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 3 hours ago, Solution Man said: We do pretty good with weak Except for 2016-2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 GFS wants mood flakes for northern MD folks on Friday. Helps crank the mountain snow a bit more, too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Actually some pretty nice precip with the cutoff storm system Thurs-Fri for northern MD.. something like 0.25" on the 0z gfs with borderline temps. I doubt it accumulates to much, but not ruling some snow out for me and psuhoffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS wants mood flakes for northern MD folks on Friday. Helps crank the mountain snow a bit more, too. Driving out around 3p Friday, crossing into the county on 68 should be night/day from Frostburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 6 hours ago, winter_warlock said: It's. Long range so I don't put alot of stock in it. And I take it with a grain of salt!! but still nice to see for thanksgiving!! Hey at this point I'd just be happy to see it just be cold for Thanksgiving...the bar is so low, haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Verbatim 06z Euro drops a few inches in favored spots Friday morning. Gets flakes down to DC. It’s been a subtle trend in that direction starting with yesterday’s runs but maybe we can get lucky and have it continue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Verbatim 06z Euro drops a few inches in favored spots Friday morning. Gets flakes down to DC. It’s been a subtle trend in that direction starting with yesterday’s runs but maybe we can get lucky and have it continue. Do you have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Do you have a map? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 RGEM pretty similar to the Euro. PSU land would probably see a dusting at least. Maybe a snow shower out this way from a streamer or two. Somebody up in northern MD should probably start a thread. We are 2 days out from our first chance at some flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Mesonet data show 4" soil temperatures arounds 50-55 degrees. Going to be interesting to see how much this cold push cools the soils off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: That would be hella awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 12z (which must start running earlier now) EURO backs off a bit, but general idea still holds. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 14 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Except for 2016-2017 In retrospect, I wonder if 2016-2017 wasn't the first herald of the coming ---------------------------PDO episode. I remember there being comment that year that it was barely a Nina, (might have been cool neutral by some metric) yet the atmosphere seemed to couple extremely strongly in a La Nina mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 I'd just like some mood flakes to get things started. Durable accumulations east of the mountains for this weekend are off the table, but maybe there will be a few scattered heavy flurries trailing down from the PA border that juuuust make it to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 WPO/EPO combo will help ensure that there is some real cold available and not weak-sauce modified crap like we’ve had in recent years. Two big things though to watch: 1. Does all the cold air dump in the west and keep the SE ridge flexed? 2. If the cold air does come east, is it just 2-4 days of dry cold that quickly lifts out when a powerhouse 1014mb low approaches? 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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