November Medium/ Long Range

[Ji]

WB 18Z GFS in long range...it is just one run at range, but we just can't underestimate the SER anymore...models just can't handle it.

Why post about it if the models can’t handle it?

[winter_warlock]

 Hey guys. FWIW from weather bell. European  long range has a major arctic intrusion coming.....

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS looks much better than the GFS, but still not cold enough.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Hey guys. FWIW from weather bell. European  long range has a major arctic intrusion coming.....

This is the ML guidance, which is good to see, but not the operational. The trajectory for getting colder end of month has legs, but when and magnitude will be question marks for the next 3-5 days before the guidance gets a better handle on the upper level evolution. Still some moving parts. 

[Benjamn3]

Am I the only one worried about a change first of Dec/late Nov means a warm Christmas week? 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS looks much better than the GFS, but still not cold enough.

Gfs ensembles  us a start in the right direction.  And it's much better looking then the GFS

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is the ML guidance, which is good to see, but not the operational. The trajectory for getting colder end of month has legs, but when and magnitude will be question marks for the next 3-5 days before the guidance gets a better handle on the upper level evolution. Still some moving parts. 

Ahhh ok point taken ty bro!!

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Gfs ensembles  us a start in the right direction.  And it's much better looking then the GFS

Exactly… 5 day mean for day 11-16 looks potentially workable.

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS looks much better than the GFS, but still not cold enough.

Control is a convoluted mess . Parks a monster HP over the Aleutians. Definitely don't want that ! ( want that over Alska and bridge over ) Has a weird west to east PV across North Central Canada that looks to have a 1000 mph Jet south of it, lol . A big Southern Rockies Storm that looks pretty cutoff. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly… 5 day mean for day 11-16 looks potentially workable.

 Now that looks very promising!!!

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Now that looks very promising!!!

Yeah, that looks like a SE stretching Vortex moving toward Hudson's. That can funnel some cpf. If that came to fruition and we bridge over the Top we could be in business for sure .

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that looks like a SE stretching Vortex moving toward Hudson's. That can funnel some cpf. If that came to fruition and we bridge over the Top we could be in business for sure .

[winter_warlock]

57 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why post about it if the models can’t handle it?

 Well I can see posting it if it's a possibility..

[winter_warlock]

26 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Am I the only one worried about a change first of Dec/late Nov means a warm Christmas week? 

  Modeling can't even  nail down 1 week out let alone next mo th lol I'd just wait and see

[clskinsfan]

47 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Am I the only one worried about a change first of Dec/late Nov means a warm Christmas week? 

Not having my first flakes out here by Nov 15th usually means a back loaded winter. Clearly nothing scientific about it. But it is rare to not have some flakes by that date here. 

[midatlanticweather]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not having my first flakes out here by Nov 15th usually means a back loaded winter. Clearly nothing scientific about it. But it is rare to not have some flakes by that date here. 

Seeing flakes in the forecast for Thursday Night.. we shall see

 

[WEATHER53]

Seeing Mongolian high pressure for first time in years.  That can get the best cold to us 

[Deck Pic]

30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not having my first flakes out here by Nov 15th usually means a back loaded winter. Clearly nothing scientific about it. But it is rare to not have some flakes by that date here. 

Nov/Dec have been tough going lately here in UHI hell.  They used to be more exciting.   Here are my last five 1"+ events in Nov/Dec in reverse chron.  That's right.  Five early season 1" events in 14 years. Of course some of my 0.25"'s might have been 3-6" storms for Carroll/Jeff/Fred

It would be nice to chase something even if it's just 1-3" for the city

12/16/20 - 1.0"

11/15/18 - 2.0"

12/9/17 - 2.25"

12/8/13 - 1.0"

12/16/10: 1.5"

[Deck Pic]

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Seeing Mongolian high pressure for first time in years.  That can get the best cold to us 

we all know the old saying - "as Ulon Bator goes so goes DCA"

[WEATHER53]

55 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

we all know the old saying - "as Ulon Bator goes so goes DCA"

Usually 8-10 days away if underway from up and over there 

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

we all know the old saying - "as Ulon Bator goes so goes DCA"

Is he related to Master?. 

[DarkSharkWX]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Seeing Mongolian high pressure for first time in years.  That can get the best cold to us 

makes sense with more AAM expected, prob can temper-pna a bit for dec