November Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

With the HP to the north and the secondary low forming further south on latest runs, its going to be difficult to get any appreciable rain for northeastern parts of the region. Maybe a tenth here. Looked like quarter to a half on previous runs.

[CAPE]

An h5 look like this in the latter third of November should produce some decent upslope snow in the far western highlands.

[WxUSAF]

^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months.

...with a nearly perfect ridge axis out west and a 50/50 low.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months.

GEFS is a bit more bullish on that cold look than the Euro and CMC ens.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months.

  A +TNH Pattern is looking like a decent possibility now due to SST changes in the IO and Pacific along with the +QBO.

  If we get the against the grain -NAO along with a +TNH Pattern it may have adverse effects. It would probably cut off cross polar flow associated with the TNH Pattern. It could also keep us in a constant cold Pattern with what cold makes it's down locks in. So, we just don't know for sure. Something to ponder .

Maybe Chuck or someone that has the patience can do some digging and come up with a time when we had both in place. The last several from what I recall that were +TNH had a positive NAO. 2014 and 2015 come to mind. Of course, the +TNH  -NAO hookup is basically a bridge over top so I really don't see alot of difference than that, imo. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

An h5 look like this in the latter third of November should produce some decent upslope snow in the far western highlands.

Good looking Pattern. Be nice to see December -Feb. 

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

GEFS is a bit more bullish on that cold look than the Euro and CMC ens.

12z op runs are all entertaining. Looks like potentially multiple reinforcing shots of cold air from late next weekend into the holiday. Definitely big lake effect and upslope snow potential and I think first flakes possibilities for east of the mountains even? Finally some interesting weather! And euro runs to 360 hours!

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z op runs are all entertaining. Looks like potentially multiple reinforcing shots of cold air from late next weekend into the holiday. Definitely big lake effect and upslope snow potential and I think first flakes possibilities for east of the mountains even? Finally some interesting weather! And euro runs to 360 hours!

Man why the euro people gotta go and do that? As if we need more fantasy nonsense to weenie about, lol

[Solution Man]

Well, it’s almost time for the snowbirds to fly in

[Daniel Boone]

Where's Roundy, uh, snowman19 ?

[katabatic]

11 hours ago, CAPE said:

An h5 look like this in the latter third of November should produce some decent upslope snow in the far western highlands.

My mother in law - who is 73 years old - is visiting from Ecuador and has never seen falling snow (hell, she might as well be from DC). Anyways it would be a real treat if we got some snow before she leaves on the 26th. Thanks for sharing. 

[Weather Will]

Ensembles do have a couple of hits if you are dreaming of a white Thanksgiving...I will post them here if I start seeing more than a couple....oh well the digital snow police can have their cow...WB 18Z GEFS and 12Z EPS.

[cbmclean]

16 hours ago, katabatic said:

My mother in law - who is 73 years old - is visiting from Ecuador and has never seen falling snow (hell, she might as well be from DC). Anyways it would be a real treat if we got some snow before she leaves on the 26th. Thanks for sharing. 

Take her to visit Mt PSU.  Sometimes it snows there if you look at the sky too hard...

[WxUSAF]

Blech. Don’t like 12z runs for next week. They don’t phase in any cold air so it’s just a cutoff slop. 12z GEFS looks better though so far.

[TSSN+]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Blech. Don’t like 12z runs for next week. They don’t phase in any cold air so it’s just a cutoff slop. 12z GEFS looks better though so far.

I mean what else is new? lol. I’m sure models will show cold shots a week out and that’s were they will stay per usual. 

[midatlanticweather]