CAPE Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 With the HP to the north and the secondary low forming further south on latest runs, its going to be difficult to get any appreciable rain for northeastern parts of the region. Maybe a tenth here. Looked like quarter to a half on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 An h5 look like this in the latter third of November should produce some decent upslope snow in the far western highlands. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 ^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: ^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months. ...with a nearly perfect ridge axis out west and a 50/50 low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: ^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months. GEFS is a bit more bullish on that cold look than the Euro and CMC ens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: ^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months. A +TNH Pattern is looking like a decent possibility now due to SST changes in the IO and Pacific along with the +QBO. If we get the against the grain -NAO along with a +TNH Pattern it may have adverse effects. It would probably cut off cross polar flow associated with the TNH Pattern. It could also keep us in a constant cold Pattern with what cold makes it's down locks in. So, we just don't know for sure. Something to ponder . Maybe Chuck or someone that has the patience can do some digging and come up with a time when we had both in place. The last several from what I recall that were +TNH had a positive NAO. 2014 and 2015 come to mind. Of course, the +TNH -NAO hookup is basically a bridge over top so I really don't see alot of difference than that, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 3 hours ago, CAPE said: An h5 look like this in the latter third of November should produce some decent upslope snow in the far western highlands. Good looking Pattern. Be nice to see December -Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 hours ago, CAPE said: GEFS is a bit more bullish on that cold look than the Euro and CMC ens. 12z op runs are all entertaining. Looks like potentially multiple reinforcing shots of cold air from late next weekend into the holiday. Definitely big lake effect and upslope snow potential and I think first flakes possibilities for east of the mountains even? Finally some interesting weather! And euro runs to 360 hours! 12 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z op runs are all entertaining. Looks like potentially multiple reinforcing shots of cold air from late next weekend into the holiday. Definitely big lake effect and upslope snow potential and I think first flakes possibilities for east of the mountains even? Finally some interesting weather! And euro runs to 360 hours! Man why the euro people gotta go and do that? As if we need more fantasy nonsense to weenie about, lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Well, it’s almost time for the snowbirds to fly in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Where's Roundy, uh, snowman19 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 11 hours ago, CAPE said: An h5 look like this in the latter third of November should produce some decent upslope snow in the far western highlands. My mother in law - who is 73 years old - is visiting from Ecuador and has never seen falling snow (hell, she might as well be from DC). Anyways it would be a real treat if we got some snow before she leaves on the 26th. Thanks for sharing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 Ensembles do have a couple of hits if you are dreaming of a white Thanksgiving...I will post them here if I start seeing more than a couple....oh well the digital snow police can have their cow...WB 18Z GEFS and 12Z EPS. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 16 hours ago, katabatic said: My mother in law - who is 73 years old - is visiting from Ecuador and has never seen falling snow (hell, she might as well be from DC). Anyways it would be a real treat if we got some snow before she leaves on the 26th. Thanks for sharing. Take her to visit Mt PSU. Sometimes it snows there if you look at the sky too hard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Blech. Don’t like 12z runs for next week. They don’t phase in any cold air so it’s just a cutoff slop. 12z GEFS looks better though so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Blech. Don’t like 12z runs for next week. They don’t phase in any cold air so it’s just a cutoff slop. 12z GEFS looks better though so far. I mean what else is new? lol. I’m sure models will show cold shots a week out and that’s were they will stay per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 ULLs can do weird things. If anything like that GFS run validates, I’ll be cashing out some of that PTO early to flee into the hills next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: ULLs can do weird things. If anything like that GFS run validates, I’ll be cashing out some of that PTO early to flee into the hills next weekend. Guess it isn't surprising but GEFS follows the OP on 00z and 06z and really honks on the WV/MD mountains for snow next weekend. EPS is a lot more muted (but trending up), so not booking anything yet! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 44 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Guess it isn't surprising but GEFS follows the OP on 00z and 06z and really honks on the WV/MD mountains for snow next weekend. EPS is a lot more muted (but trending up), so not booking anything yet! I'm supposed to be going up there next weekend to check in on construction progress and am getting pumped at the possibility. Thinking I need to get some snow chains for the G just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 1 hour ago, IronTy said: I'm supposed to be going up there next weekend to check in on construction progress and am getting pumped at the possibility. Thinking I need to get some snow chains for the G just in case. 12z GFS is less extreme but held serve with the general idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z GFS is less extreme but held serve with the general idea. Less extreme? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Euro is 6-15” for mountains also 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Less extreme?Go back and look at 06z - it had like 30” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Go back and look at 06z - it had like 30” lol Oh, I misunderstood. I thought you were saying less extreme that the GEFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z GFS is less extreme but held serve with the general idea. Still looks good to me. I ordered my snow chains and and also plan on throwing my 30" two stage snow blower in the back of the truck in case we gotta fight our way in/out. We're gonna find out how good g wagons are in the snow. But most likely since I'm prepping so good it'll just be windy and flurries. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: ULLs can do weird things. If anything like that GFS run validates, I’ll be cashing out some of that PTO early to flee into the hills next weekend. Take a peek at the AFD. Good stuff and it's within a week. Let's see what the HH run shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 2 hours ago, WesternFringe said: Less extreme? Me looking at this map living just east of the Allegheny Mtns. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 18Z GFS brings some serious upslope! I'm seeing estimates that it will be over 30 inches for some of the Ridges in WV. I would attach an image, but I am limited to small file sizes for some reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 18Z GFS brings some serious upslope! I'm seeing estimates that it will be over 30 inches for some of the Ridges in WV. I would attach an image, but I am limited to small file sizes for some reason! Yep, thinking my first chase of the year will be at Snowshoe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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