November Medium/ Long Range

[psuhoffman]

On 10/29/2024 at 9:49 AM, Bob Chill said:

The marine heatwave near Japan is wild. Mt Fuji is still brown (or was recently) breaking a 100+ year record. The way we've looked at things for many years, the pdo in its current state is a pretty easy winter cancel feature. I don't disagree much. But the extent and departure from normal is so great, my gut is telling me that it will cause an anomalous surprise downstream (somewhere).

Conventional LR forecasting of the winter hemispheric LW pattern hasn't been working well with man or machine over the last handful of years. Things just aren't lining up and unexpected things keep overwhelming.

So what's it going to be this year? Classic warm east/snow dud nina or something nobody can predict that surprises people? Time will tell. I'm feeling a positive surprise and I'll go down with the ship at this point.  That said, positive surprise doesn't mean 13-14 walking in the door imo lol. More like active enough and cold enough at times to satisfy those who expect a classic dud. Something like that. 

My gut says the PDO (and there are various components to that) has been driving this bus recently and much of the forecast failures have been that other dominant predictors are not having much impacting in muting it.  It's possible that having this off the charts PDO (as well as a pretty anomalous QBO) could lead to something extreme breaking our way. We're in uncharted territory.  But personally I fear the "extreme" event it could lead to would be a ridiculously warm dry snowless winter that makes even some of the recent dreg seem like a 1960's winter.  I was actually more optimistic a month ago than I am right now, and I wasn't very optimistic then!  

 

That said, I don't have a crystal ball and I hope you are right.  And we always could get something like 2000, its actually one of the analogs right now, and it was also a warm dry fall, and for the most part the winter pattern was also god awful...but we got an amazing 7 day period and so it's remembered as a good winter.  In reality we just got lucky during the one week all winter that had any chance at all of snowing.  But that can happen any winter.  We've had some years go the other way, where we probably should have done better than we did based on the predominant pattern but got unlucky.  I'm starting to think our best chance is simply to hope we get lucky and fluke our way to some snow with one or two decent anomaly periods within an overall crap winter.  I highly doubt this ends up a winter where we have weeks and weeks on end of a favorable pattern to work with.  We have to hope we maximize the few opportunities we get imo.  And I am not at all qualified to say if we will or not.  Most of what I do is simply identify probabilities based on data.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

I’m hearing some of the ensembles are having the ridge firmly locked in place for the first half of November…

 

Why is it that every time it looks like it’s going to fade it injects steroids?

[CAPE]

Mostly warm and continued dry for the next 10 days at least as it looks now. Maybe a shot at some light rain around the 10th per some guidance. Way out there and no signs at all of a drought buster. If warmish and continued dry is your vibe, you love to see it. Enjoy. For those who want to see cool weather and maybe some actual rain, it's a continuation of shit the blinds. Reevaluate towards mid Nov.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Mostly warm and continued dry for the next 10 days at least as it looks now. Maybe a shot at some light rain around the 10th per some guidance. Way out there and no signs at all of a drought buster. If warmish and continued dry is your vibe, you love to see it. Enjoy. For those who want to see cool weather and maybe some actual rain, it's a continuation of shit the blinds. Reevaluate towards mid Nov.

Then in mid November we’ll be saying the exact same thing and eyeing December for a pattern change…