psuhoffman Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: 21-22 was less than an inch away from climo at DCA. It’s not hard to luck your way close to climo when avg is only 14”. But I said it was a decent year. It was still below avg snow at all 3 official stations so let’s not pretend it was a good winter. It was just better than most lately but that’s a low bar considering we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 6 hours ago, JVscotch said: How many of the neutral years were preceded by El Niños? None. There aren’t really any good enso and PDO matches. 1993 and 2017 are probably the best but neither was even close to this negative a PDO. 2020 is probably the best combo analog with a decent enso and PDO match but not great. I’m not sure how much that matters when the PDO is this negative. It’s off the charts. I think it’s driving the bus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not sure how much that matters when the PDO is this negative. It’s off the charts. I think it’s driving the bus. October Northern Hemisphere H5 has matched the PDO composite almost perfectly.. negative anomaly over Alaska and all. 2013 is an example of a year where the pattern deviated from the PDO, starting in the Fall, but we are about 180 degrees from what that October looked like at 500mb right now. -PDO years that were good Winters looked Neutral in the Fall, -PDO years that were bad Winters had the Aleutian island ridge and +EPO. Solar flux is a new pattern this year though, so I will be interested to see how it goes through the Winter. I think there is a lag for an active sun to the ground pattern. If it results in +NAO like I think, it will either correlate with -PDO and warm us up into the 60s, or it will fluctuate the Pacific pattern, correlating with more -EPO, and actually give us some rather stormy conditions when it gets cold (-epo/+nao). Unfortunately, for that the be a predominant pattern I don't think we want the PDO at -3, with a major +correlation at H5 in the Fall. The cold shots may be more likely to come in bursts. (Since 2013, +NAO/-EPO/+PNA vs -NAO/+EPO/-PNA has had about a 0.30 correlation, and 0.40 since 2019.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: October Northern Hemisphere H5 has matched the PDO composite almost perfectly.. negative anomaly over Alaska and all. 2013 is an example of a year where the pattern deviated from the PDO, starting in the Fall, but we are about 180 degrees from what that October looked like at 500mb right now. -PDO years that were good Winters looked Neutral in the Fall, -PDO years that were bad Winters had the Aleutian island ridge and +EPO. Solar flux is a new pattern this year though, so I will be interested to see how it goes through the Winter. I think there is a lag for an active sun to the ground pattern. If it results in +NAO like I think, it will either correlate with -PDO and warm us up into the 60s, or it will fluctuate the Pacific pattern, correlating with more -EPO, and actually give us some rather stormy conditions when it gets cold (-epo/+nao). Unfortunately, for that the be a predominant pattern I don't think we want the PDO at -3, with a major +correlation at H5 in the Fall. The cold shots may be more likely to come in bursts. (Since 2013, +NAO/-EPO/+PNA vs -NAO/+EPO/-PNA has had about a 0.30 correlation, and 0.40 since 2019.) If the PDO doesn’t chill some were in trouble. It’s damn near impossible to sustain an eastern trough with the PDO hanging out around -3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If the PDO doesn’t chill some were in trouble. It’s damn near impossible to sustain an eastern trough with the PDO hanging out around -3. You mean it needs to warm some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 27 Author Share Posted October 27 WB latest GEFS....another warm. dry month ahead in latest run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest GEFS....another warm. dry month ahead in latest run. That blob over DC has to be the urban heat island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 27 Author Share Posted October 27 At least when it is this bad, you don't get disappointed. No expectations at all.... my biggest worry is how low the Potomac is for this time of year. Better start building desalination plants on the East coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 First can kick of the season. I’m debating making an “Is it ever going to rain again?” thread after Election Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 I do not recall this long a dry stretch for THIS much of the country in my lifetime. Maybe there has been, but it doesn't pop to mind. I think it has been about four weeks for the US from the mississippi river eastward that has been almost completely dry for that long. Saw mention that maybe closest analog was 1871 before the Chicago fire and the horriffic forest fires in northern michigan. In any event, wow, is it dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: I do not recall this long a dry stretch for THIS much of the country in my lifetime. Maybe there has been, but it doesn't pop to mind. I think it has been about four weeks for the US from the mississippi river eastward that has been almost completely dry for that long. Saw mention that maybe closest analog was 1871 before the Chicago fire and the horriffic forest fires in northern michigan. In any event, wow, is it dry. The only two places east of the Rockies that are above normal in the last 30 days are central Florida (Milton) and central VA (dying gasps of Helene). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: The only two places east of the Rockies that are above normal in the last 30 days are central Florida (Milton) and central VA (dying gasps of Helene). Wonder when the cactus will start to grow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 On 10/26/2024 at 6:03 PM, psuhoffman said: If the PDO doesn’t chill some were in trouble. It’s damn near impossible to sustain an eastern trough with the PDO hanging out around -3. The marine heatwave near Japan is wild. Mt Fuji is still brown (or was recently) breaking a 100+ year record. The way we've looked at things for many years, the pdo in its current state is a pretty easy winter cancel feature. I don't disagree much. But the extent and departure from normal is so great, my gut is telling me that it will cause an anomalous surprise downstream (somewhere). Conventional LR forecasting of the winter hemispheric LW pattern hasn't been working well with man or machine over the last handful of years. Things just aren't lining up and unexpected things keep overwhelming. So what's it going to be this year? Classic warm east/snow dud nina or something nobody can predict that surprises people? Time will tell. I'm feeling a positive surprise and I'll go down with the ship at this point. That said, positive surprise doesn't mean 13-14 walking in the door imo lol. More like active enough and cold enough at times to satisfy those who expect a classic dud. Something like that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 The marine heatwave near Japan is wild. Mt Fuji is still brown (or was recently) breaking a 100+ year record. The way we've looked at things for many years, the pdo in its current state is a pretty easy winter cancel feature. I don't disagree much. But the extent and departure from normal is so great, my gut is telling me that it will cause an anomalous surprise downstream (somewhere). Conventional LR forecasting of the winter hemispheric LW pattern hasn't been working well with man or machine over the last handful of years. Things just aren't lining up and unexpected things keep overwhelming. So what's it going to be this year? Classic warm east/snow dud nina or something nobody can predict that surprises people? Time will tell. I'm feeling a positive surprise and I'll go down with the ship at this point. That said, positive surprise doesn't mean 13-14 walking in the door imo lol. More like active enough and cold enough at times to satisfy those who expect a classic dud. Something like that. I don’t even care about snow. Just give me rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: I don’t even care about snow. Just give me rain. We’re even getting Lucy’d with that. Friday’s chances collapsed overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 SE ridge to continue for at least 1, probably 2 weeks. EPS shows pretty much the same. Better for it to happen now and November than later? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 35 minutes ago, Terpeast said: SE ridge to continue for at least 1, probably 2 weeks. EPS shows pretty much the same. Better for it to happen now and November than later? hopefully its doesnt become part of the furniture for winter. It always seems to be there even in favorable patterns. I remember last winter it was there just enough to almost never let the 540 line move south of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 That ridge is stayin. We want it gone, so she’s gonna set up shop. The stupid optimist in me is hoping it’s setting up for a pattern change close to turkey day. God knows the last time I didn’t wear a tshirt to Thanksgiving dinner, and I live in the damn mountains. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 How much are you willing to bet that on November 15th there will have been no pattern change and the board will be hyping up an early December pattern change? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass. Rinse and repeat for Jan and Feb. The SER never gives up that easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 56 minutes ago, Terpeast said: May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass. Oy if we're talking about the MJO already that tells ya where things are, haha MJO! For when nothing else is working and we wanna grasp at straws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oy if we're talking about the MJO already that tells ya where things are, haha MJO! For when nothing else is working and we wanna grasp at straws With the marine heat wave off Japan, strong negative PDO, high solar with westerly QBO, and a very warm Atlantic, and a weaker La Nina (stronger is actually better for us) it’s hard to think of any other forcing mechanism that can temporarily shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How much are you willing to bet that on November 15th there will have been no pattern change and the board will be hyping up an early December pattern change? I don't think anybody has been hyping a pattern change in early November, on here at least. There was some guidance which briefly suggested an improvement after the 1st week of November, but there wasn't any hype, just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 4 hours ago, Terpeast said: SE ridge to continue for at least 1, probably 2 weeks. EPS shows pretty much the same. Better for it to happen now and November than later? But look at that 50/50 trough! Just kidding, I'll see myself to the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: With the marine heat wave off Japan, strong negative PDO, high solar with westerly QBO, and a very warm Atlantic, and a weaker La Nina (stronger is actually better for us) it’s hard to think of any other forcing mechanism that can temporarily shake things up. Man how long has that dang heatwave been off of Japan anyway? 5 years? Seems like every winter there it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: You ain’t kidding. November is starting to look like a dry as a bone torch-a-rama @Bluewave The mid month cool down got can kicked the same day it was predicted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 55 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: The mid month cool down got can kicked the same day it was predicted I want it warm and dry for the Surrender in November so that the bottom falls out on temps just in time for a December to Remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 1 hour ago, IronTy said: I want it warm and dry for the Surrender in November so that the bottom falls out on temps just in time for a December to Remember. Is this just a convoluted marketing technique sponsored by Lexus? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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